Yatahay Network - $2 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (BTN): 99.5 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 103.19 BB
UTG: 193.52 BB
MP: 122.35 BB
CO: 109.98 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 3s 3d
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BB raises to 12 BB, Hero calls 9.5 BB

Flop : (24.5 BB, 2 players) 2c 5s 4h
BB bets 12.67 BB, Hero calls 12.67 BB

Turn : (49.84 BB, 2 players) 7s
BB bets 27.89 BB, hero?

Maybe I should click it up OTF and jam turn?
Maybe jam turn AP?
Float again?
Fold??

I feel kinda lost here as I feel his double barrel range here is quite overpaid dense then I remember they love their K6s these days...

This double posted my bad

Interesting hand. I think with an SPR at like 3.5 and a 50% bet we can ship flop at some frequency. All his Ax hands are in awful spots vs a ship unless he has a wheel Axs.

Looks like a 0 EV spot OTT just from my intuition but not sure, I want to run this later.

I'd fold OTT as played.

Okay in my solve it looks like we don't raise flop AI ever with this hand.

Turn is a call but its very low EV - since people under barrel I would just fold.



Edit: wtf is up with this forum lately i keep double posting and can't post pictures.

Slow today….lots of double posts.

Okay, this is not a pre 3bet call, but whatever.

Villain bets range on flop, we raise BIG. We can then continue our beat down, whether we shove turn or river.

Doesn't get any more standard than a call pre BTN vs BB 3b.

2bb is low EV??? It's a snap continue, villains could be barreling with a bunch of different broadway with a spade and **** like that

Isn't 2bb low in the context of the pot size?

First of all, I don't know where we get that villain underbluffs this turn since whether he goes polar pre or linear (sizing suggests he is going polar), he's got heaps of air.

Second, we bend our ass backwards to find simplified strategies that are 0.5% EV apart and discuss whether the application of the strategy justifies the EV gain or EV loss yadda yadda yadda, to then purposefully incur in a 4% of the pot loss or however much it is? Also in my sim it was around a 5bb loss to fold.

Don't worry, you have pleeenty of 0 EV call/folds on spots like these to exploit. And again, I don't see that we have good reason to overfold

200bb/100 is not low lol.

Although I agree people probably underbluff at 200z in general, this line is very strong especially since BB 3bets are a bit tight

yes it is pretty low.

We aren't playing against a solver.

Lets look at pop tendencies to see if we should call.

1) Population under 3bets in BB vs BTN opens - they don't have hands like K5s/Q5s/J5s etc. So BB naturally get's to the flop with a stronger range

2) This board is checked very often + Villain used 50% sizing. That again makes his stronger (coupled with the fact that his preflop range is stronger)

3) The 7s is one of the worst cards in the deck for the BB. Yet he is still barreling OTT.

All these factors make me want to fold.

if we frame it that way then .5bb is 50bb/100.

Except you won't get into this situation 100 times probably ever in your poker career.

1) pop stats are not good if you're not applying bayesian logic to them. Pop stats have pool 3betting to like 10bb from BB on this spot. The fact that he goes 12 makes him a reg that likely has studied preflop ranges, therefor you can quickly tell he is an outlier from population, who proably does have the bluffs in his range. Scratch that, even if he doesn't. None of his broadway cards hit anything, so he has enough air either way on this board.

2) The fact that a board is checked very often but Villain bets, doesn't tell you anything about his range composition. He could be correctly checking overpairs but then feeling frisky with KQ bdfd who knows.

3) See 2)

I honestly think that the reason you guys wanna fold is because you're scared of losing big pots and all of the other jsutifications are post hoc

You are acting like some 200z reg is linus love. This guy isn't playing anywhere close to a solver.

I use 12bb in my 3bets from the BB and I play 25nl.

And you have bluffs.
I'm not assuming he is Linus I'm just not assuming he is underbluffing cuz what the hell do i know

I think it is a close spot so I don't hate a call. But the 7s hurts some of your straight outs and the 3 is not a clean out either.

I'm trying to think of bluffs here off the top of my head and I can't think of much without looking at a solver.

What bluffs does your solver have OTT for the BB?

I have looked at some stats (big database) of this exact pool with a few friends and the biggest volume guys do way under 3bet out of the BB. I guess the extrapolation that under 3betting means always 3betting value and never bluffing isn't correct, but I think it's the closest to the truth.

Readless it's not close man, this is an eeasy call. You have 20% equity against overpairs and you're calling like 27% pot odds. Reg pool is decent enough to bluff AQ with the Ace of spades or a miriad of flushdraws here

Did AK hit? Did AQ hit? Did KQ hit? Did KJ hit? Did KT hit? Did AJ hit?

Your skipping a lot of steps in your logical process

Pool stats say 90% of players lose money so why bother playing

For starters the idea that 90% of people who play 200z lose money is ridicolous. Most people at 200z are regular who win money. Most of the hands played at 200z are between winning regulars.

I also wasn't debating that flop/turn must be called/raised, but just thought it's important to keep in mind that an average regular is probably under 3 betting out of the bb. A tigher range preflop definitely changes things. It could even mean that they overbluff.

I thought I was replying to DooDoo there so I thought the BB under 3betting was being used as a justification for flop/turn play, my bad there.

My point with the 90% of players lose thing (overall, not on 200nl) is to point out that statistics are worthless if you don't use them right, you could have your own sample that's a winning one, you could have high IQ and if you were able to control for IQ then maybe your bracket is winning on average, you could control for study hours, and a million different things. Overall stats mean very little.
To tie this to this scenario. You should look at how much players that 3bet to 12bb BB v BU 2.5x RFI 3bet, and that will, I'm 99% positive, higher than overall pool stats.

Well one of my leaks is folding too much in 3bet pots according to my DB review so maybe I identified something here.

@Hyperknit - what happened in the actual hand?

I folded

I'm folding pre here. Just not strong enough IMHO. Maybe 88 is the floor.

I want to raise flop generally with a gutshot on a rainbow board but not in a 3! pot that doesnt connect well with my calling range. What hands do you have in range that connect well and make a credible raise? Now if you were in BB in a SRP yes raise but not in this configuration IMHO.

Facing a half pot bet on the turn you need 12 outs to continue given the pot odds. You have 10 outs so it's borderline. I'd fold.