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200nl trips+fd weird MW equity analysis 200nl trips+fd weird MW equity analysis

09-19-2018 , 02:00 AM
iPoker - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

P1-137914EQ (SB): $185.08 (VPIP: 66.67, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
Hero (BB): $203.00
P4-413687VW (UTG): $204.48 (VPIP: 80.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
P5-211935JK (CO): $112.90 (VPIP: 66.67, PFR: 66.67, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 3)
P6-210564VB (BTN): $197.00 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)

P1-137914EQ posts SB $1.00, Hero posts BB $2.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $3.00) Hero has 3 9

P4-413687VW raises to $5.00, fold, fold, P1-137914EQ calls $4.00, Hero calls $3.00

Flop: ($15.00, 3 players) 9 8 7
P1-137914EQ bets $15.00, Hero calls $15.00, P4-413687VW raises to $47.00, P1-137914EQ calls $32.00, Hero calls $32.00

Turn: ($156.00, 3 players) 9
P1-137914EQ checks, Hero checks, P4-413687VW bets $55.00, P1-137914EQ raises to $133.08, [color=red]Hero


very weird spot w/SPR<1 ott, feels like we're not in too good shape but can we fold for this price?

and yeah loose defend pre, i know
200nl trips+fd weird MW equity analysis Quote
09-19-2018 , 02:09 AM
fold pf. probably can just fold flop after SB leads, you call, UTG raises and then SB calls again. Your clubs might not even be live.
200nl trips+fd weird MW equity analysis Quote
09-19-2018 , 03:45 AM
flop I call as well, can't be that bad
but then that turn ... the guy who's leading flop into 2 and then c/r turn def has a boat or quads and then utg has maybe a straight at worst but prob boats of his own?
so yeah prob sitting close to dead maybe 5-10% equity
200nl trips+fd weird MW equity analysis Quote
09-19-2018 , 06:03 AM


we have 14% vs pure value range

quads not possible bruh
200nl trips+fd weird MW equity analysis Quote
09-19-2018 , 06:16 AM
pretty optimistic not giving utg any boats

still... do you really want to shove with 14% eq and no fold equity?

I've done the math and it's -47.96$ EV , you'd need 23% eq to break even
200nl trips+fd weird MW equity analysis Quote
09-19-2018 , 06:28 AM
and if you give utg boats and he stacks off as well, you're down to 6% eq and net -94.6$ EV
200nl trips+fd weird MW equity analysis Quote
09-19-2018 , 02:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ionutd
pretty optimistic not giving utg any boats
UTG is not frequently raising <straight when SB donks pot size bet and BB calls, so the simplification I made, which was to add more boats to SB's range (i.e. 100% of 97s) seems reasonable to me

does look like a fold though
200nl trips+fd weird MW equity analysis Quote

      
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