If we have K5/K4 we are slam dunk shoving, but with the third nuts can we really expect villain to call with worse here?

Villain is a reg but perceived as a weak one (I barely perceive any 10NL regular as good btw). He probably doesn't know that but we don't have a bluffing range when we shove the river (playing devil's advocate, when we are AT LEAST 250 bbs deep we MIGHT have Ac4x/Ac5x/AcKx sometimes).


https://www.boomplayer.com/26915292_5723CF5985


Sorry for uploading it as a boom link, but ended up closing the client without saving the hand history, lol.

Think you're putting too much thought in the straight flush. With how many different flushes he can have, you shouldn't bother counting 1 straight flush combo. Focus more on how high a flush he could have imho.

This is villain dependent. You say he's "weak", as in bad? Or as in weak tight? If he's bad and a reg, you should have some info about his style... How is he bad, does he call too much? Super aggro?

There are players who will call with any flush in this spot and there are people who will fold the K high flush.
With no info other than "weak", his line (call flop, check/minraise turn, lead river) shows a lot of strength. Either his hand is really good, or he THINKS his hand is really good given the action, and that's where more info on him would come handy.

Without additional info I think a check is fine...
If he calls A high and Q high you break even, no point betting. he could call a few J, but the straightflush offsets 1 of them.
Unless you believe he will call any flush (or worse) thinking you don't have a flush yourself, think you can check back.

3bet turn allin. Opponent can have many worse hands that will call. Avoids action killing cards hitting on river.

Villain didn't check, instead he went for a 2/3 pot bet. :P
Had he checked we would definitely bet for value (and probably big, like 80% pot).

His sizing actually saved him here, because if he bets half pot or less I'm shoving for sure.

That's the best line indeed when we think villain is only capable of doing that on the turn with his value range, in which case we hope the cooler is in our favor rather than being against us (since villain will almost always have the flush when he calls). I do think, however, that we should keep some bluffs in like the naked ace of clubs or a hand like Qc6x or JcTx.

Our opponents likely hands for c/c flop, then c/r turn are weighted towards made value hands. Most villains that want to semibluff Qc6x or JcTx will choose to c/r the flop.