this is a fold right?

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 275.1 BB (VPIP: 25.25, PFR: 10.10, 3Bet Preflop: 3.70, Hands: 102)
Hero (SB): 308.8 BB
BB: 169.1 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)
UTG: 158.1 BB (VPIP: 27.94, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 3.70, Hands: 73)
MP: 585.7 BB (VPIP: 26.32, PFR: 10.53, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 38)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 24.43, PFR: 16.03, 3Bet Preflop: 1.67, Hands: 135)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, BTN raises to 13.5 BB, Hero raises to 45 BB, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 123 BB

Ugh, pretty sick. Do you think he is capable of doing this with QQ? How about running a bluff? Would he ever do this with A5s - I know we block AK pretty heavily but it's still viable - I'm clutching at straws. 275bb effective and given his stats (albeit 100 hands), I think we can make a case for a disciplined fold, but I hate it.

i have no idea what he's personally capable of - no notes on him whatsoever....but the population doesnt bluff like this lol.

No.
Most 10NL players will have AA a large % of the time here but unless you want to get crushed by anyone who will play QQ, AK, or A5s like this, go with it
If you really really want to cold4bet and then fold to a raise for some reason, use a smaller size

Size is big. I know you guys are deep but obv you are not comfortable getting it in. So 4bet smaller. Normal size +2-3BB
Yes if someone is going to 5bet A5 anr QQ like this, you have to go with it.
But on this stakes it's 99.999% AA
That is a very difficult and disciplined fold.

If by disciplined you guys mean bad, I agree.
All it takes is for someone to pay attention and realize you're 4bet-folding everything that isn't AA and suddenly you're going to start getting wrecked by more hands than just AK and A5s.

Players at those stakes don't bluff enough in these spots in general but it's not like they're never going to show up with anything other than AA.

I'm not sure villain can theoretically get it in will less than KK here

It’s a spot where the nash pairings quickly get to either KK+ AK or AA AKs and the person who calls the all in should only have AA imo.

It might be better to flat KK here this deep and use a hands like AJs/KQs as a bluff 4bet and close your eyes and jam AA AKs facing a 5bet.

You could also create a 5bet call range and just flat some AA to keep it uncapped- the SPR should be kinda similar to a normal 4bp.

Also, you could just either call or fold the 5bet this deep and have no jam at all, continuing with say KK+ AKs.

I dont think we should be cold flatting a 3b on the sb to play a potential 4 way flop oop and deep.

I think Hero has to 4bet smaller and make a disciplined fold pre, if villain drunkenly shows AKo or QQ or worse then good for him, but mostly I agree with other posters that it will usually be AA most of the time.

I mean I do agree with the first point, it’s why I lean towards option 2 or 3.

Not thinking about where this hand stands relative to our entire range and working out an entire strategy for said range is fatal imo.

I don’t care what he shows us, problem is if you start folding KK there without much thought of how it affects your entire defence then people can just 5bet Q8s there and start printing money off of you.

Everyone is saying my sizing was a bit big - but considering the open and call before the 3b and that me and BU are 275bb, I thought it was ok. I didn’t want to make it too attractive for him to call oop, which he would do with most of his range this deep. If I go smaller I feel like I don’t punish him enough for calling


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This 100%

It's not that your sizing was too big, it's that if you think you're in a situation where you should fold the 2nd best hand you could have facing a 5bet, you should give him a better price to keep enough 5bet bluffs in his range that you don't have to fold, or if you're confident enough that the sizing doesn't matter, give yourself a better price if you do want to 4bet/fold.
But I agree with whoever said don't 4bet this if you're not willing to call a 5bet.

Let’s put it this way, if I see you in my pool after this post and we’re deep here, I’ll be 5betting AA and every single bluff in my range against you because I know you fold KK here and only continue with AA.

This is why it’s vital to consider your whole range and defend it correctly.

You have to think about these things before you 4-bet. Now, if you fold, you were just bluffing preflop with Kings. You have got to call this off. This is especially true because Andy and every single reg that reads 2p2 will exploit you when this situation comes up. AK is a much better bluff hand here as is AQ.

Ok is there ever a stack size depth that makes it less -ev to fold KK pre vs a 5 bet from UTG when KK is OOP. VS AA KK will lose all its stack usually and in this case being almost 300 bb deep oop its going to be hard to get value vs avoid paying of AA or giving free cards so that Axs will crack it.

(no reads at 10 NL 5 bet from deep UTG usually AA )

I concede my 4b is too big. But I don’t think flatting pre is the way to go, nor shoving/calling the 5b this deep is either, when we know what we know about the 10NL stars zoom pop (as well as villains stats). I dont agree with dont 4b if ur gonna fold.



Right? How big of a stack do we have to have where it's ok to fold KK? 500bb?

Ok dont get me wrong The deeper it is well get to a point where it is profitable to run KK vs AA as a set mine. But there has to be a range of BBs depth where if we know the population isnt thinking about exploiting 4 bet fold vs call ranges and just decide to 5 bet shove AA for value, sometimes KK, sometimes bluffs usually w Axs , and then will just flat the 4 bet w QQ,maybe JJ and AK to not go 2.7 buyins broke by overplaying them when ip.

I think some posters are not taking the stakes into account and projecting their advanced GTO balanced play as if the population at 10 NL will imediately exploit this rare situation when hero has KK vs UTG 5 bet AND oop almost 3 buyins deep.

10 NL population is rarely making bold plays as a 5 bet, and besides how much information can we exploit if OP folds KK vs UTG 5 bet when 275 bb deep , I don't know his Pokerstars username and I would need a huge sample size to determine if hes 4 bet folding too much before I start 5 bet shoving exploitively against him without exposing myself to getting called lighter by all the other regs w stats who have auto notes and 5 bet stats on me.

Who said anything about a 5bet shove this deep anyways? You can call his 5bet uncapped, no?

If you have to adjust your preflop game for the limit and not 4bet this hand then ok, that’s still far better than 4bet/ folding the second best hand in holdem to a 5bet deep.

I will take the bait. What hands do you want to 4b/call with here? Why? What are your plans with them?

First of all, I might actually randomise between cold 4’s and a cold call range to protect hands I might elect to cold call like JJ, maybe TT.

I’m going to cold 4b say QQ+ AQs+ KQs with randomised ATs+, AK and AA.

I continue by calling say QQ+ and say some AK whilst jamming in theory AA and AKs as the bluff. I might also elect to have a entire call range which look like QQ+ AQs+ and some AKo.

I’m not at home to look at my ranges, so please don’t slaughter me if my combo counts are slightly off

Edit: I don’t think we even need to call AQs, but I think my maths is about right off the top of my head.

A relatively small sample, but this doesn't look like a reg capable of 5bet bluffing our cold 4bet:

BTN: 275.1 BB (VPIP: 25.25, PFR: 10.10, 3Bet Preflop: 3.70, Hands: 102)

Yes, it is possible that this could be a 28/25/9 reg whose stats haven't yet converged, but from a Bayesian perspective, this is going to wind up being a 25/12/3 villain who never ever 5bets here without AA (a player profile that the thread above indicates is common in this particular pool) quite a bit more often.

This is a pretty big departure from theory, but that alone isn't a reason to pay off a weaktight nutpeddler. The debate on whether or not we fold here really doesn't have anything to do with what we do against a decent range (obviously we're not folding then), but rather how confident we are in our read based upon stats and player pool to make a deviation. If villain is an "AA only villain" significantly more often than a reg who can be bluffing, continuing starts to get pretty bad. That's what the debate in the thread is really about.

One thing I'm really not worried about is getting exploited by a 2+2er with Q8, because if any reg gets a big enough sample on us to infer that we are 4bet/folding here too often, we're going to have a good sample on him too and we're never going to be 4bet/folding against a competent reg in this situation.

This. With bells on. Absolute +1

Let's think about this a bit.

Say it's worked, and we've made it so he doesn't want to flat OOP. What does that do to his range? Do we think he's going to make a super sick 5-bet bluff or do we think we've just forced him to fold all (or almost all) worse hands?

Yeah, none of my post was serious. I was pointing out how absurd Andy's post was.

I admitted, the 4b was a bit too big....but just to clarify - i'm not trying to get him to fold. I'm trying to make it as big as possible for him to call his weaker hands, like JJ,QQ, AK, KQs, AQs. I do want him calling with those hands. As deep as we are,I should be sizing up right? I think i sized it up a bit too big, but in a way, it did make him go insanely big with his 5b which I'm still presuming was AA.

But yeah, i'm trying to get it as a big as possible for all his calling hands. I'll admit, in the moment, i wasn't thinking "make it an ok size so if he 5b i can flat ". It's such a rare spot to be in, this deep, having KK, and then facing a ridiculous sized 5b for over 80bb more - u never expect to get 5b this deep in nitty 10NL zoom lol.