Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $0.1(BB)
BTN ($10.5) [VPIP: 43.5% | PFR: 26.1% | AGG: 38.9% | 3-Bet: 10.5% | Hands: 47]
SB ($13.7) [VPIP: 26.9% | PFR: 21.7% | AGG: 44.1% | 3-Bet: 10.6% | Hands: 1672]
HERO ($12.94) [VPIP: 33% | PFR: 26% | AGG: 33.8% | 3-Bet: 10.5% | Hands: 8373]

Dealt to Hero: 9 T

BTN Raises To $0.30, SB Folds, HERO Calls $0.20

Hero SPR on Flop: [15.69 effective]
Flop ($0.65): 2 7 9
HERO Checks, BTN Checks

Turn ($0.65): 2 7 9 5
HERO Bets $0.97 (Rem. Stack: 11.67), BTN Calls $0.97 (Rem. Stack: 9.23)

River ($2.59): 2 7 9 5 A
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $1.63 (Rem. Stack: 7.60),

I'd mostly be looking to 3bet this preflop, but calling is okay.

Flop is standard.

Turn is very interesting. The more I think about it, the more I love it. I love it because villain is often capped here, so it makes sense to overbet into a capped range. And if villain isn't going to defend here with Ax and weaker pairs, then we can balance this by adding more bluffs to our range. Props for the creativity.

River is a tough spot because I imagine that villain will have Ax a lot here. We don't really have the correct blockers here, so this isn't a great combo to x/r bluff. Instead, I'm looking to either x/c or x/f. Its a tough spot because people don't turn weaker pairs into bluffs very often here. I think I still lean towards a x/c as there are still a few combos of busted draws in villain's range, although I wouldn't fault a fold either.

Why choose this sizing though? Surely we can make it bigger and it does everything you've spoken about but better?

Thanks for the props. Yeah I ended up folding because I feel like Villain has a ton of Ax and he’s not good enough to bluff the Ace. Good analysis I am trying to incorporate Overbet turn and river leads in my range where appropriate

1.5x pot is pretty big. What size would you choose?

I have no idea nor am I saying your sizing is bad. I just think that going off the logic mentioned the bigger you make it the more benefits it has for you. I could be completely wrong.

I think at some point you only get called by better hands. It’s possible there is a size between 1.5x pot and AI that is the most EV but you’d need PIO Solver or Simple Postflop to figure it out I believe

I don't think it's a profitable line at 10nl at all to bomb the turn like this. You're losing so much value from hands that would call 2/3 pot bet that are just insta-mucking to this bet.

"villian is often capped here"
Only if he has no balance to his flop checking range. 3-handed I'm happily checking 7's and 9's to you on this flop... and then you're going to go make my life easier by 1.5x leading at me on the turn?

Now the river is interesting. You have a medium strength top-pair hand barrelling into the pre-flop raiser with over-sized pot bets...

What if the river is a J, Q, K?
What if the river is a 7?
What if the river is a club?

I'm really interested in what line you take depending on the alternate river cards - that you would find bombing this turn to be profitable.

From what I can see, you're risking getting smashed in a monster pot to win a whole bunch of small pots.

When getting to turn action I said to myself that this is an overbet. So happy someone overbets here

Sure, if you never bluff here which is far from the case, I'm sure. You're making the bettors life easier by overfolding all your 7's and A-highs and whatever else.

I'm not worried about the 1 combo of 99 or 3 combos of 77. It's much more likely Villain has a middling hand that an overbet puts in a difficult spot. Also i'll have bluffs with this line as well.

I think your line here is ok.
You obviously need to call a lot of 9s here otherwise you're not really going to be calling anything. You'll have some traps but you shouldn't have any As here other than the A9 hands you decide to trap on the river.
Of your 9s, having a club isn't great but having the Tc is IMO less relevant than blocking any of the multitude of the Ax gutters villain is likely taking this line with a ton of the time.
I'm not sure how many 9x hands you're taking this line with though, and your decision really depends a lot on that since it seems like your range here is going to be pretty much just 9x, some discarded bluffs, and some traps.

But why?

What are you achieving by bombing the turn that you can't achieve by betting normally. That's the part I don't understand.

What 'middling' hands are you trying to put under pressure?

You're literally turning top pair on the turn into a bluff, and it's a value hand.

How is it a bluff?
There are many worse hands villain can and should be calling with.

You are too fixated on the hand that we have.

What hands should we be calling with - and what range should Hero be bombing this with?

Does that differ to what hands villain should be calling with if we bet 2/3 pot? if so, what range do you see here?

OK, so what range is Hero 1.5x betting the turn here.

If hero bet 2/3 pot, villain's calling $.40 to win $.65. In this hand example, villain's calling $.97 to win $1.62. In the former scenario, villain needs to defend against this bet 60% of the time. In the latter, villain needs to defend 38%.

What that means is that theoretically we should be able to bluff a lot more because button shouldn't be defending as often as against a 2/3 bet.

Depending how you structure your 3b range in the bb, find x amount of hands to value bet as an overbet and find y amount of hands to bet as a bluff. The bluffs should outweigh the value combos by just short of 2:1 based on hero's sizing.

wrt your last question i quoted, you'd be surprised how many people hero call because they show weakness with a pair or showdownable hand.

I don't have the interest (above is more interesting to me ) or energy to go in depth enough to create a range. Suffice it to say that the range should relate to the opponents defense frequency above.

My whole point is about the range vs an opponents defense frequency lol. You can only say that it's a good strategy if it makes sense against an opponents range and I don't think it does - I get the concept of shrinking V's defense range based on the bet-size, but it's exactly this reason why I don't see the benefit of the play.

When we make the turn bet we need to consider what we would do with the entirety of our range in that spot, and where Tc9c sits in our range.

If we aren't calling Tc9c a bluff, but a value hand, then what does the range look like that we'd be betting 1.5x pot here. It's important.

What's our 3betting range?
What's left?
What hands make up our value 35% and what hands make up our bluff 65%? (rounded)

Ranges are super wide at this point, I don't think Tc9c is in the 35% of hands we should be bombing here. And given that ranges are wide, then I don't see the value in polarising our betting so much.

Would much prefer 9's, 7's, 5's, 2's, Ac9x, 97 and a whole bunch of other FD and SD bluffs in our hand than be value-betting 1.5x with top pair + mid kicker + FD. we are 1.5x'ing this pot FAR TOO WIDE imo which means we have to bomb with such a wide range of our hands and it allows the player in position with relatively deep stacks compared to pot-size to float the turn wide and then press pretty hard on any scare card or pick up show-down value of their own. That, or they are already pretty nutted and just own you when they bomb the river back at you.

The whole thing is entirely demonstrated by the fact that Hero gets a scare card and x/f's to the player in position. We are inflating a pot out of position with a marginal value hand and set ourselves up to get outplayed on the river.

I'm happy to learn here... I'm just really struggling to see how this is right.

fancy play syndrome. Just bet 3/4 pot on the turn.

In theory, I don't think this hand is an overbet because you're supposed to be more polarized as bet sizing increases. Pretty sure it would only be sets for value once you get this big (not sure if you should have the straight at micros)

In practice, that sizing certainly could give the highest EV against OP's population if they don't like folding pairs or gutters