Merge - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 108.1 BB
UTG: 65.7 BB (VPIP: 37.78, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 47)
CO: 119.6 BB (VPIP: 34.01, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.90, Hands: 302)
BTN: 103.3 BB (VPIP: 22.26, PFR: 7.24, 3Bet Preflop: 2.33, Hands: 2,386)
SB: 179.2 BB (VPIP: 28.85, PFR: 27.18, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 108)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J A

fold, CO calls 1 BB, fold, SB calls 0.5 BB, Hero raises to 5 BB, CO calls 4 BB, fold

Flop: (11 BB, 2 players) 2 4 7
Hero bets 6.1 BB, CO calls 6.1 BB

Turn: (23.2 BB, 2 players) A
Hero bets 18.4 BB, CO raises to 108.5 BB and is all-in, hero???

Okay, so it looks obvious at first, but this is all based on my read. This is the 4th time Vil has shoved all in on me when I was oop and I had TP. He did this 1 time as well in a previous session. This exact same scenario. Every time before I have folded. Twice when I folded, he showed TPBK, and like a really bad kicker. He is bluffy, and overbets pots vs. other players w nothing, but he saves this all in move for me. Fun! So, when is enough enough?

I pulled out pokerstove, and we have more that 40% if he truly has any A here. But I think you also have to account for that he knows he's shown me 2 bluffs before, so maybe this time he's tightened up a bit. Taking out some Ax combos leaves us with like 35%, and we need 36% to be +ev so it's close. Unless, I should REALLY tighten up his range here based on that he could be using his image to exploit.

Now, I'm thinking it's basically neutral either way, but in neutral situations, it's better to be on the side of caution.

call given your reads on villain.

citation needed

I would expect if he likes to do something he will keep doing it, that's why tendencies are so great. No need to even think of folding here if he regularly shows up with weak Ax and has all the possible bluffs from flop texture.

Should check the flop if this guy is as crazy as you say.

Would call given reads

I think it's a close fold. I constructed a range based on your reads, i started from his 35% pf range and reduced the shoving range to FDs and TP / TopTwo hans + sets

Board: 247*A
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
MP2****64.50%**62.21%***2.29%*{ AhJd }
MP3****35.50%**33.21%***2.29%*{ JJ+, 77, 44, A2s+, J9s-J7s, T7s, 97s, KhQh, KhJh, QhJh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Kh9h, Qh9h, Th9h, Kh8h, Qh8h, Th8h, 9h8h, Kh7h, Qh7h, 8h7h, Kh6h, Qh6h, Kh5h, Kh3h, A7o+, A4o, JTo }

you need 39.5% to call since his shove is 78,6BB effektive and the pot is effectively 198,8

(108,1-5-6,1-18,4 =78,6 left in your stack)

I think he shoves gutshots too and he likely doesnt limp ak aq often. His value range like 15 combos with suited aces only, if you include offsuit aces then you get a ridiculous amount of ax rag combos to shove.

He can jam with worse and definitely jam with semi bluffs. Easy call and embrace the variance.

Check flop or turn though.

It's interesting that he's shown you bad hands rather than pure bluffs (weak top pairs over draws). Sure, people do this because they're so sick at mindgames and next time it'll be the nuts, but really all we know is that he shoves a bad range.

You'll feel dumb if he flips over 44 but whatever. He can have a bunch of A5/Ahxh/naked draws kind of stuff and you're going to have to call him eventually or you're justifying his jams.

^Hero holds the Ah, so Ah/xh is out of Villain range.

I don't know but for me it's a fold here. you bet close to pot, and he's shoving on you.
Don't believe he is on too many draws here. He is not doing this with KsXs or KhXh. He might be on two pair A2 A4 A7, or set, there's not many draws in villain's range for you to make the call imo.

I would fold
villain is repping 22,44,77, A2,A4,A7, he could even have AQ here (seems like a fish) .And Hero having the Ah makes it less likely he has a fh draw turn shove here.

Would call w AQ or better here.

Missed the Ah. Still has a bunch of draws and stuff.

And fwiw if we're bet/folding with our reads on this guy then betting pot is a mistake I think.

This seems like an easy fold. We're betting pot on a card that slams our range and he's raising. Even aggro fish know that the Ace hits us a good deal of the time and us betting pot means something. We can't just get lost in the read of "oh he raises a bunch".

The flop bet is certainly a mistake against this guy on this flop. Check and evaluate based on how much he bets.

He had AQ. The reason I bet the flop was because I expected him to do this w any A, as he'd done before. So, based on that reasoning I had to call the shove. But I think I should only do this w AQ or better here. With AJ, I agree I think checking flop is good. I definitely start tilting when a fish is at the table like this, and I just don't get good enough hands while they are at the table to take advantage of it, or then someone else gets their stack and they leave. So I start overplaying hands that are good but not great. I think against some players that are insane and have stats like 43/43 (and these guys do exist where I play) you can play this way, but against fish who are just horrible but not completely out of their mind you have to be just a little bit more selective with your spots I think, and those really more crazy players are more at full ring than 6-max anyway I find.