Quote:
Originally Posted by Colinb7
Thanks all for responses. Just a couple more questions:
Bkdoor quads- if villain has called our cbet and the turn changes nothing, which parts of villains calling flop range now folds to our turn bet? What % of his overall range do you think that is?
Secondly, what hands do we hold that triple this run out? Do you think I should worry about what villain thinks we have?
Curt low- like your line, and as it happens in this hand you probably right. I bet 2/3 pot and got raised so I think A9/AT most likely. I understand we may have worse hands we want to bluff, but realistically I don’t think we have any showdown. Even over bluffing this river, do you think he folds enough of his range to make bet profitable?
Any draw really, if you size your bet correctly (ie big) he should be folding any flush or straight draw, even top pair finds it hard to call this board. If he does call with any of those hands he is definitely folding river. I'm not sure of % as I'm out but just plug it into equilab, it doesn't even matter that much.
Best hands for us to triple are hands that can make the nuts by the river. KQ, JQ, Ax clubs etc. The way you want to think about triple barrelling is this: you give yourself three shots at winning the pot and you get a fourth at winning a big pot when you actually hit. The only way it won't be profitable is if he calls you down AND you miss your draw AND miss your overcards (go into x/c mode when your overcards pair). This is why Ax suited is such a big hand in NLHE and should be played aggressively from most positions. Be more careful when you hold a dominated draw, but draws to the nuts + overs make great triple barrels because your equity in the hand + 3 streets of fold equity make them +ev against most villains. This runout specifically is just a brilliant runout for you to take this line. I can't see what x/c achieves here and I have no no clue why people are advocating it.
