10nl AJo BTN vs CO line check - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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10nl AJo BTN vs CO line check

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01-17-2018 , 08:17 PM

Tucco

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 651

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 113.7 BB
SB: 106.9 BB (VPIP: 40.91, PFR: 22.73, 3Bet Preflop: 15.38, Hands: 69)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 6.06, Hands: 173)
UTG: 91.8 BB (VPIP: 22.41, PFR: 15.11, 3Bet Preflop: 4.77, Hands: 1,207)
MP: 301.1 BB (VPIP: 26.67, PFR: 24.29, 3Bet Preflop: 13.51, Hands: 214)
CO: 104.6 BB (VPIP: 19.78, PFR: 15.18, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 735)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) A

CO bets 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB

Turn: (13.5 BB, 2 players) 9

CO bets 9.6 BB, Hero calls 9.6 BB

River: (32.7 BB, 2 players) J

CO bets 23.3 BB, Hero raises to 98.1 BB and is all-in

Preflop I'll occasionally 3bet vs looser opponent. I'm going to assume that flop and turn are standard.
Is river raise good? Or is it too thin here?

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01-18-2018 , 01:44 AM

Ojune

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 5,171

Seems too thin with the straights out there, villain can toss most AQ,AK and still defend enough

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01-18-2018 , 02:37 AM

2blackaces

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 212

Seems close to me but I'm leaning towards just calling. If villain has all 16 combos of QT, AA, 88, and 55 then they have 23 combos you are losing too. If they call with AK, A9, A8s, and A5s thats 17 combos. I'm not sure we should expect them to always be double barreling QT but I'm also not sure they will call with AK nor that a 20/15 always has A9o in their CO opening range so I'm thinking this is just a call.

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01-18-2018 , 02:56 AM

bigdave2304

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 425

I think its a good raise. I wouldnt give him all 16 combos of QT here. Its close, almost too thin but i would play it similar. Maybe a nice spot for a min raise? (I almost never min raise myself

Sent from my LGMS210 using Tapatalk

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01-18-2018 , 03:08 AM

2blackaces

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 212

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigdave2304

It's an interesting spot because villain probably should be Cbetting close to 100% on this flop, so they should also be betting all of their gutshots on the turn unless they are just going to check/fold a huge portion of their range. But I agree, a lot of the population is just going to give up way too much on this board when their Cbet gets called.

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01-18-2018 , 06:31 AM

Ojune

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 5,171

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2blackaces

I don't think villain should be doing any of that.

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01-18-2018 , 02:44 PM

Brokenstars

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 16,093

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01-18-2018 , 02:45 PM

Brokenstars

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 16,093

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2blackaces

Incorrect

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01-18-2018 , 04:13 PM

Renekton

adept

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 853

Really depends on if he defends AK. Against this defending range [AA,88,55,A9s-A8s,A5s,76s,QcTc] you have 29.4%. You may have enough fold equity to make this profitable even if he folds AK but dont know if its more profitable than simply calling.

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01-18-2018 , 04:20 PM

#10

Ojune

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 5,171

Of course shoving is profitable but that's beside the point. No idea why you would consider shoving with 29.4% when called.

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01-18-2018 , 04:44 PM

#11

Tucco

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 651

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 5hAc8c9sJh
Equity Win Tie
MP2 33.33% 23.81% 9.52% { AsJc }
MP3 66.67% 57.14% 9.52% { AA, 88, 55, AJs, A9s-A8s, A5s, 76s, QcTc, AJo }

I'm fairly confident that villain will have those hands in his river b/c range.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 5hAc8c9sJh
Equity Win Tie
MP2 62.16% 56.76% 5.41% { AsJc }
MP3 37.84% 32.43% 5.41% { AA, 88, 55, AJs+, A9s-A8s, A5s, 76s, QcTc, AJo+ }

Add AK and AQ to villain's range and it turns into a profitable value shove. Is it safe to assume villain will b/c AK and AQ? Or is that too optimistic?

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01-18-2018 , 04:46 PM

#12

Ojune

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 5,171

Well, is it too optimistic to assume villain will bet/call his entire valuerange when he should be folding lots of it?

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01-18-2018 , 05:24 PM

#13

Tucco

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 651

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ojune

Well, is it too optimistic to assume villain will bet/call his entire valuerange when he should be folding lots of it?

Probably.

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01-18-2018 , 05:58 PM

#14

BackdoorQuadsDraw

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 404

As played I'd shove, he can call with enough of his range to make it profitable as the guy a few posts above me demonstrated. I think AK/AQ is going to make up a large portion of his value range here, especially considering how tight he is pre. So wp there.

Btn vs CO I would definitely 3 bet pre here though.

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01-18-2018 , 06:04 PM

#15

Ojune

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 5,171

He didn't demonstrate anything, he just plugged in some ranges. He didn't take into consideration the amount of bluffs villain should have and the amount of value hands he is supposed to call with.
Anyway, it should be pretty obvious that any decent player will bet/fold most AK,AQ which is the very bottom of his value range. Try and post such a hand from villain's perspective holding AK or AQ and see how many will advocate bet/call. My guess? No one.

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01-18-2018 , 06:17 PM

#16

BackdoorQuadsDraw

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 404

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ojune

number* of bluffs

Well, demonstrated in the sense that we can't know for certain what his range/tendencies are and have to make reasonable assumptions. Don't get hung up on the semantics of what I said. Given the board texture and villain's PFR I don't think he has many three barrel bluffs at all here. I think his river betting range is heavily value oriented and I think he'd bet/call AK with some frequency. I think we have a profitable shove, but I also think the hand should have been played differently from the start and been 3 bet.

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01-18-2018 , 06:21 PM

#17

Renekton

adept

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 853

This discussion would be better if more useful stats were provided. 700 hands is enough for CO open and some post flop freq.

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01-18-2018 , 06:35 PM

#18

Ojune

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 5,171

Quote:

Originally Posted by BackdoorQuadsDraw

It's the opposite, we can't know for certain so we don't make assumptions. And if his river betting range is heavily "value oriented", it's an even easier call since he doesn't have many bluffs to fold with. Without making assumptions I can say villain is supposed to fold 64% of his range in this situation.

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01-18-2018 , 06:41 PM

#19

Feng Shui

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 595

Id just call river i don't see shoving being profitable long term vs this type of villain. Your just not called by worse often enough if at'all.

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01-18-2018 , 06:52 PM

#20

BackdoorQuadsDraw

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 404

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ojune

"It's the opposite, we can't know for certain so we don't make assumptions"

Just slowly repeat that to yourself a couple of times. Are you drunk??

" it's an even easier call since he doesn't have many bluffs to fold with. Without making assumptions I can say villain is supposed to fold 64% of his range in this situation"

Honestly the way you think about the game of poker is just muddled at this point. What are you talking about,not having many bluffs to fold? What relevance does that have? If he had zero bluffs and will fold we have a profitable shove because he has enough worse value hands that he calls with. Just put it into Equilab dude it's easy to see.

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01-18-2018 , 07:16 PM

#21

Ojune

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 5,171

I'm going to answer to the actual content of your posts which I suspect will shrink over time. If villain has no bluffs, he has less hands to fold with. Try and remove the bottom 64% of villain's "valuerange" and see how it fares against AJ.

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01-18-2018 , 07:37 PM

#22

Haizemberg93

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 7,247

River looks like pretty obv mistake.Like somebody posted before even in best case scenario in which he calls with all AQ and AK combos we win only 56% so its not like super huge +EV but even if he calls with AK+ we still losing more often then not.
Just call river.

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01-18-2018 , 07:53 PM

#23

Tucco

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 651

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ojune

The amount of bluffs are irrelevant here, unless you somehow think I thought about folding at any time. And for what it's worth, I agree that most players aren't calling a river raise with AK or AQ. At least not enough to warrant a raise.

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01-18-2018 , 08:30 PM

#24

Ojune

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 5,171

The amount of bluffs directly impacts villain's folding frequency, how is that not relevant?

Well, actually that's not very accurate : the % of bluffs defines what part of villain's valuerange should be called. And villain's bet size defines what % of bluffs he should have.

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01-19-2018 , 01:53 AM

#25

BackdoorQuadsDraw

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 404

^^ Literally just talking runbbish

It's a profitable above because he can call with enough of his value range and lose, enough of the time. Like I said, put it into equilibrium. His folding frequency is irrelevant. If we call his bluff or raise it and he folds the outcome is the same. How are you not grasping this?

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