Hey everyone, this hand was played on the app PokerBros.

$105 effective. According to the app, V currently has a 33-50% VPIP, PFR >25%, and is down 1-3 buyins.

OTTH

Pre-flop: Hero RFI BTN $3 with Q 10. SB cold calls. BB folds.

Flop ($7): J 6 3. V checks. Hero c-bets $2.50. V calls.

Turn ($12): J 6 3 9. V checks. Hero bets $15.

River ($42): J 6 3 9 A. V checks. Hero bets $35.

Thoughts? V may be a little tilted, which had me conflicted.

Give up river vs this villain

I think i check back this river, particularly after he calls your large Turn c-bet. Yes you've zero show down value and it could be a good spot for a third barrel but when he calls that turn bet he's clearly not phased about putting more chips into the pot.

I'm curious about your Turn play. I do like the c-bet given that you pick up equity with the OESD. But why the over bet?

Really don't like the turn overbet. The top card doesn't change so the majority of his continuance range on the flop is Jx (which he has a lot of in the form of offsuit broads), and then on the 9 turn, we can not apply pressure to Jx, so we should size 2/3 to apply pressure to his hands like 55/77/88.

As played I always pike out on the river because don't expect a whale to fold a jack

Given villains whaley stats, the fact villain is down (not sure you mean lifetime stats or just the stats for the game so I will assume the latter) and chasing losses, I would rather triple for value here than as a bluff.

I think villain is just not the ideal bluff candidate and thats before we look at what hands are bluff candidates.

This

Turn overbet doesn't make much sense in terms of your range. River is a give up as well especially versus someone who might be tilting.

To the people that don't like the OB OTT - what turn cards are you overbetting?

I'm still trying to wrap my head around OBing so greatly appreciate the responses.

Is that the real reason though?

Don't we OB on a board like A72r turn Q? Villain still has a bunch of Ax yet we still overbet.

Okay you guys need to stop confusing me - turn is 100% an OB spot.



The top 3 sizings are 200%/150%/125%.

GJ OP

yeah overbetting the nuts is usually a good idea

hand is wp, pretty sure we have enough fe on this river, villain shouldn't have Ax except AhXh

Yeah turn we are very polarized so OB makes sense (TP+ with weaker TPs and maybe some AA mixing checks). Oop has also capped his range otf and Jx isnt the majority of his flop calling range vs that sizing, he should even have a dec amt of K high and A high. A lot of our Axhh/Kxhh benefit a lot from the OB sizing ott, in particular the lower SDV ones

River not amazing to bluff esp with Th

from a theory/gto standpoint def not, i think he's saying "exploitatively"

Also vs turn OB Jx and TP hands in general actually most likely gets folded sometimes esp like JT, moreso vs bigger overbets. altho in practice probably people & def fish never fold. Overbetting properly gains you a ton of ev vs real humans even if in gtoland you only gain 1-5% more than betting small. I like having flop overbets a lot on the right textures. Nobody uses them and nobody knows how to defend against them

don't ob turn vs whale
would not bluff river vs this guy, simply vbet KK/QQ/Ax/crappy 2p mid sized and jam A3+

It doesn't make sense to follow a solver line here. When you just throw out a "solver approved" line like this, it assumes the villain is mirroring the solver strategy for us to follow it verbatim. Villain is a fish/whale - I think it's unlikely HE even knows what his SB CC range looks like here, and he's certainly not putting ANY thought into MDF vs the turn overbet.

This is simply a spot where you have to switch the autopilot off, take the controls, and just keep it real simple. Ask yourself questions like how dense is the flop call range with Jx? What am I trying to accomplish with my bet, what specific hand classes am I targeting? Will a 2/3 turn bet get underpairs to the 9 to fold? Will he ever fold any Jx to the overbet (answer is no btw)? If he's never going to fold turn with weak pairs vs 2/3 sizing, then sizing up makes sense. If he's not flating flop super wide and folding small pairs to the 2/3 turn bet, then you're overbetting into a range that is doing very little folding.

Thanks everyone for the feedback, some really good discussion in here.

I guess this line is way better vs. reg? I know we'll have a lot of good hands that also don't mind OB this turn because the board's getting a little more draw heavy.

V did end up soul read calling it off with Q9

I do believe that means we'll be printing with our thin value here though?

Woah, how do you use multiple sizes on GTO+?

Jx is very little of his flop calling range vs 1/3. Fish will have a ton of random double backdoor hands like T9s, Axs, Kxs, Qxs, wouldnt even be surprised at hands like total floats like bdfd 97s/96s or even KQo/AQo/ATo and a bunch of random hands that cant face more heat ott but could call a 2/3

Youd be surprised at how bad even fish play vs "solver approved" lines. We dont need to assume V plays a gto strat to have one print. Turn OB is fine, river is a punt imo ap. And honestly i doubt a solver would even bet this river that often with the Th anyway, probably not even high freq
bluffing QT without a heart

If you construct a flop calling range youll see a lot of his turn range folds vs an OB. Nobodys flop calIing range is majority Jx otf vs 1/3, especially a whale's. Your ranging is really really off if you think it is


I OB a ton on flops and turns, and i can say for sure that fish play horribly against it and theres a lot of ev to be gained if you know which rivers to slam the brakes on and which textures/turns shluld even be overbet. If you have a whale pure calling Q9cc otf and dont develop an OB strat ott you are losing way too much EV. You cant win big pots IP vs fish if you dont bet big, and QTo is good enough to make it in an OB range here. If op was say overbetting Q7ss or other random no equity hands bc its "solver approved", then i can get behind saying its unnecessary but QT is fine

And you cant win a big pot otr with QT if you dont OB. The pot will only be 72bb if you 2/3 flop and river, whereas OP made it 112 otr with a turn OB. This is where big edges can be made IP. this is why you mostly see overbets IP and not as much OOP.

I overbet this against just about everyone



But I overbet to $18 to $20

yeah you play your hand face up vs fish if anyone didn't know that now you know.

The OB comment was a theory inquiry.

Surprising to hear that from you lol.

Kinda funny how 6-12 months ago everyone in micros small stakes was hopping on the gto bandwagon and doing their circle dances adamantly, and now it's back to the "lol exploit" train.

Agree with everything you said Minatorr.

Yeah I've tried to improve a bit since then, I've realized we need to play differently vs different players in the exact same spot.

Late to the party, but I also thought it was an overbet spot for a larger size than OP used. Nice to see that confirmed.

Yeah, this makes sense. Didn't notice he was a whale when I first read the hand.