Quote:
Originally Posted by meale
It doesn't make sense to follow a solver line here. When you just throw out a "solver approved" line like this, it assumes the villain is mirroring the solver strategy for us to follow it verbatim. Villain is a fish/whale - I think it's unlikely HE even knows what his SB CC range looks like here, and he's certainly not putting ANY thought into MDF vs the turn overbet.
This is simply a spot where you have to switch the autopilot off, take the controls, and just keep it real simple. Ask yourself questions like how dense is the flop call range with Jx? What am I trying to accomplish with my bet, what specific hand classes am I targeting? Will a 2/3 turn bet get underpairs to the 9 to fold? Will he ever fold any Jx to the overbet (answer is no btw)? If he's never going to fold turn with weak pairs vs 2/3 sizing, then sizing up makes sense. If he's not flating flop super wide and folding small pairs to the 2/3 turn bet, then you're overbetting into a range that is doing very little folding.
Jx is very little of his flop calling range vs 1/3. Fish will have a ton of random double backdoor hands like T9s, Axs, Kxs, Qxs, wouldnt even be surprised at hands like total floats like bdfd 97s/96s or even KQo/AQo/ATo and a bunch of random hands that cant face more heat ott but could call a 2/3
Youd be surprised at how bad even fish play vs "solver approved" lines. We dont need to assume V plays a gto strat to have one print. Turn OB is fine, river is a punt imo ap. And honestly i doubt a solver would even bet this river that often with the Th anyway, probably not even high freq
bluffing QT without a heart
If you construct a flop calling range youll see a lot of his turn range folds vs an OB. Nobodys flop calIing range is majority Jx otf vs 1/3, especially a whale's. Your ranging is really really off if you think it is
I OB a ton on flops and turns, and i can say for sure that fish play horribly against it and theres a lot of ev to be gained if you know which rivers to slam the brakes on and which textures/turns shluld even be overbet. If you have a whale pure calling Q9cc otf and dont develop an OB strat ott you are losing way too much EV. You cant win big pots IP vs fish if you dont bet big, and QTo is good enough to make it in an OB range here. If op was say overbetting Q7ss or other random no equity hands bc its "solver approved", then i can get behind saying its unnecessary but QT is fine
And you cant win a big pot otr with QT if you dont OB. The pot will only be 72bb if you 2/3 flop and river, whereas OP made it 112 otr with a turn OB. This is where big edges can be made IP. this is why you mostly see overbets IP and not as much OOP.
Last edited by Minatorr; 09-20-2020 at 07:33 PM.