I think it's safe to assume most of our opponents range on the turn is flush draw. If he had two pair, it's unlikely he just calls turn and/or jams river.

I have a 6, so that cuts down on a lot of the common straights. As far as me raising the turn with my pair + draw, I'm typically calling there a large % of the time of course. I decided to raise because I saw him betting wider than he should have in another pot, so it was for value.

Think I'm really only concerned about one combo here that would jam. Double belly in J9.

Thoughts?


Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $1(BB)
HJ ($137.12) [VPIP: 20% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 55.6% | 3-Bet: 10% | Hands: 25]
CO ($206.42) [VPIP: 20% | PFR: 2.5% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 40]
HERO ($109.31) [VPIP: 32.1% | PFR: 25.1% | AGG: 38% | 3-Bet: 11.1% | Hands: 4227]
SB ($83.67) [VPIP: 22% | PFR: 4.9% | AGG: 42.1% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 41]
BB ($103.26) [VPIP: 22% | PFR: 14.6% | AGG: 27.8% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 41]
UTG ($79.98) [VPIP: 20.5% | PFR: 15.4% | AGG: 37.5% | 3-Bet: 11.1% | Hands: 39]
EP ($250.24) [VPIP: 24.4% | PFR: 9.8% | AGG: 26.3% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 41]
MP ($42.61) [VPIP: 26.8% | PFR: 7.3% | AGG: 10.5% | 3-Bet: 5.6% | Hands: 41]

Dealt to Hero: 6 6

UTG Folds, EP Folds, MP Folds, HJ Raises To $2.50, CO Folds, HERO Calls $2.50, SB Folds, BB Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [16.43 effective]
Flop ($6.5): 2 8 5
HJ Bets $4.40 (Rem. Stack: 130.22), HERO Calls $4.40 (Rem. Stack: 102.41)

Turn ($15.3): 2 8 5 7
HJ Bets $9 (Rem. Stack: 121.22), HERO Raises To $25 (Rem. Stack: 77.41), HJ Calls $16 (Rem. Stack: 105.22)

River ($65.3): 2 8 5 7 T
HJ Bets $62.04 (Rem. Stack: 43.18), HERO Calls $62.04 (Rem. Stack: 15.37)

Move this to full ring

Seems like a fold. Limiting him to specifically J9 seems optimistic. TT, really any overpair could conceivably take this line. Not to mention 77/88/78... 2p hands won't always jam turn. Personally i could definitely see TT running all 3 streets that way.

Good analysis.

You think 77/88/78 won't jam turn but will jam river? TT is a possibility, but I'm limiting the range because of sizing. Think most FR regs (I don't play FR often) are just value betting river w/ normal sizing. Maybe I'm wrong there. That's why I was limiting him to busted draw and J9.

turn is probably a good exploit if you think V is betting most of his overpairs, when in reality he shouldn't..


im not sure what were doing river tbh, isnt it a clear fold? our range is quite strong otr, no need to defend this, blocking A6s etc. etc.

I'm hero calling...

Yes, my range should look pretty strong, but what is my opponent just calling the turn w/ and then insta-posting the river with? TT, J9, and busted draws correct? Don't think T8 or other 2 pairs would do this. T8 probably 1/2 - 3/4 pots river. I'm really not blocking much.

He had Ah9h... just want to make sure I'm not missing something here.

you can call if you know your opp, like he is around agro fish. In other times you need fold here coz it is don't seems like a bluff. for exemple, he can bet less for bluff, may be 40$ and it will be ok. Your line looks very strong for so much size bet.

He can bet less after I raise the turn?

i mean about donk bet on river. He bet so many for the bluff. sorry for my eng)

Yes, I understood. I was asking you think after me raising the turn he can successfully bluff for 1/2 pot or under? That doesn't make sense. I think he knows if he's bluffing he needs to bomb it to have any chance.

around 1/2 2/3, just your range have many sets here. pot bluff can be ok, if some flush looks closed on the board, but if not, he have few fold equity vs range with many sets.

as he saw on the turn, you like "raise for protect from flush+ value bet", so donk pot bet size for bluff on the river very bad. If he like a bluffing, he can try it on the river, but anyway, on the river you can have many strong hand.

I mean any bluff on the river looks bad, and big size bluff will was too bad.

Of course, some ppl (amautor) can bluff here with a draw, but size too big for that with your range ( many chance for your call). Even he is agro fish, you better fold here and got him money on other hands.

ps your raise on the turn was good