0.25/0.50 5 ring QQ overpair board with flush draw
03-23-2018
, 06:56 AM
first of all, buy in full unless you're playing a 50bb effective strategy.
second, don't post the results until you get some feedback.
you don't have to use your gut to figure out how you're doing in the hand tho. first you need to give your opponent a range of hands. a lot of players might donk a flop like this with a set because they don't want it to check thru. also, those same players might balance their donking range with some bluffs like T9dd or 56x (whatever the second suit was on the board) for the open ender and back door flush draw. now, when the front door flush comes in, you're losing to his sets still, and you're losing to his flush draws. you said he's tight tho, so he might not even have 56s here but if he does that's all we're beating still on the turn. you do have a redraw tho, you can hit another diamond, or a queen.
do you have equilab? if you don't go download it, it's free. you can plug in your hole cards , and the board, and then plug in a range for your opponent to see how much equity you have against that range. then based on the pot odds he's laying you, you can figure out if a call is +EV.
here's a chart with some common pot odds. so when he bets 2/3 pot we need to have the best hand 28% of the time to make this a profitable call.
i gave him this range and ran it thru equilab
8d8h, 8d8c, 8h8c, 4h4s, 4h4c, 4s4c, 3h3s, 3h3c, 3s3c, Td9d, 9d7d, 7d6d, 7s6s, 6d5d, 6s5s
we have 29% equity against this range. a call is profitable but barely. i wouldn't recommend shoving. we can call here, and call an all in or move in ourselves if we river a flush or a set.
here's the thing. since we're so close to the exact pot odds we need to be profitable in this spot, it's probably better as a fold. you don't know the exact range of hands your opponent is doing this with and if you take out the straight draw plus back door flush draw hands, you suddenly don't have the right equity and you're losing money here. also, maybe he does this with hands like A2dd and A5dd. if he has the 65 and 76 of spades still, but also has those two combos of Axdd, you're also going back into -EV territory. so it's best to just avoid marginal spots like this. if the villain in this hand is a complete maniac, and he's going to just donk into you with random air, you can comfortably call down on any runout. but you already said the SB was tight. it always sucks folding big over pairs but it's the right play. just to be clear, you should be folding AA/KK as well.
when you get equilab, trying plugging in different river possibilities to see how they affect our equity. then a shove would be your remaining 9$ into a pot of now $34. so you're going to need 17% equity to call this river profitably. you have less than that on any brick river.
this is the kind of stuff you can practice off the table when you're not playing, and then it becomes easier for you to kind of eyeball it in game
gl
second, don't post the results until you get some feedback.
you don't have to use your gut to figure out how you're doing in the hand tho. first you need to give your opponent a range of hands. a lot of players might donk a flop like this with a set because they don't want it to check thru. also, those same players might balance their donking range with some bluffs like T9dd or 56x (whatever the second suit was on the board) for the open ender and back door flush draw. now, when the front door flush comes in, you're losing to his sets still, and you're losing to his flush draws. you said he's tight tho, so he might not even have 56s here but if he does that's all we're beating still on the turn. you do have a redraw tho, you can hit another diamond, or a queen.
do you have equilab? if you don't go download it, it's free. you can plug in your hole cards , and the board, and then plug in a range for your opponent to see how much equity you have against that range. then based on the pot odds he's laying you, you can figure out if a call is +EV.
here's a chart with some common pot odds. so when he bets 2/3 pot we need to have the best hand 28% of the time to make this a profitable call.
i gave him this range and ran it thru equilab
8d8h, 8d8c, 8h8c, 4h4s, 4h4c, 4s4c, 3h3s, 3h3c, 3s3c, Td9d, 9d7d, 7d6d, 7s6s, 6d5d, 6s5s
we have 29% equity against this range. a call is profitable but barely. i wouldn't recommend shoving. we can call here, and call an all in or move in ourselves if we river a flush or a set.
here's the thing. since we're so close to the exact pot odds we need to be profitable in this spot, it's probably better as a fold. you don't know the exact range of hands your opponent is doing this with and if you take out the straight draw plus back door flush draw hands, you suddenly don't have the right equity and you're losing money here. also, maybe he does this with hands like A2dd and A5dd. if he has the 65 and 76 of spades still, but also has those two combos of Axdd, you're also going back into -EV territory. so it's best to just avoid marginal spots like this. if the villain in this hand is a complete maniac, and he's going to just donk into you with random air, you can comfortably call down on any runout. but you already said the SB was tight. it always sucks folding big over pairs but it's the right play. just to be clear, you should be folding AA/KK as well.
when you get equilab, trying plugging in different river possibilities to see how they affect our equity. then a shove would be your remaining 9$ into a pot of now $34. so you're going to need 17% equity to call this river profitably. you have less than that on any brick river.
this is the kind of stuff you can practice off the table when you're not playing, and then it becomes easier for you to kind of eyeball it in game
gl
Last edited by dblrun28; 03-23-2018 at 07:06 AM.