recently there has been a lot of talk about mark-up when selling action, which has got me thinking - what is the skill level for the hypothetical player who is completely neutral EV in the main event?

For example. would a solid 2-5 player (winning ~5BB/hour) be even in the Main? If not, where is the line?

I only personally know one person that fits this description, i.e. min-cashed every other year on average. This guy is a crusher in live games, is essentially a pro, solid winner at 5/10 and higher.

There are players who are not really that good in a cash game setting but who do well in tournaments. Conversely, there are cash game players who do well in THAT setting but struggle in tournaments. Reasons for those struggles will vary, but one of the most common things I see is impatience...they didn't come to spend $1,500 to $10K on a tournament to fold for hours on end. The other common sight is the risk averse that makes an OMC ABC player seem like a maniac.

At any given table, you will see players at both ends of the spectrum as well as those who are basically break-even in both tournaments and cash. Throw in a smattering of luck boxes on any given day and you have a full table

Rest assured that if you have any level of tournament competence, you will likely be in the top 35-40% of the players in a given event. Of course, you will ALSO rest assured that you will see players that make you wonder how they came across the funds they pissed away on the entry as they call you with 6-2o and win the hand...

This is a really good point. But I still think we can ballpark the cash game skill level where players start to break even in the WSOPME. For example I'm pretty confident that most players who are break-even at 1-2 are -EV in the ME. And I'm pretty confident that players who are beating 5-10 for even a small amount are +EV. I just wonder where the inflection point in the middle is.

I have to think this guy is significantly +EV in the main and is just running below EV.

Could be. It's hard to get a meaningful sample size. I still doubt your average 2/5 monkey, even a slight winner, could last more than a day or two on average in the ME.

The difficulty in trying to make any reasonable comparison is the size of the buy- involved and how it will impact that low limit cash player. You state making $25 / hour average in 2/5 -- well how are you going to play with 400 hours of your effort at stake ? With a $1/2 player it is even more dramatic and the expectation is for their sphincter to tighten. :-) which is major -EV . Also as stated before Tourney and Cash really are very different animals most truly good Cash players experience is with a high stack to BB play ratio... like the typical start of a Tourney. Now take that same cash player and put them in a middle or small sized stack situation can they adjust in an appropriate EV+ means ? Good players are good players but not all Cash Fixed limit players are great No Limit cash players........ same is true with Tournaments. The skills are similar but not the same.

Yes you are right but you are just repeating the same point that Michelle already made.

Look, if you start at a 1-2 nl table, and then move to a 2-5 --> 5-10 --> 10-20 table etc, you are going to have different stereotypes about the players and how they would do at the main. At the 1-2 table you are probably thinking "even the best player at this table is probably -EV at the main." By the time you get to a 10-20 table you are thinking something more like "there are at least a couple players at this table, maybe even all of them, who are +EV at the main." So my question is where is the inflection point. The fact that there are factors that make it hard to say for sure doesn't mean we can't offer our best estimate.

100+% that a guy who is a "solid winner" at 5/10 is +EV in the main event. I would also say that a winner at 2/5 is very very likely +EV in the main event, assuming they are familiar with some tourney basics.

Remember that someone who is +EV in the main could very easily bust in the first 2 days ten times in a row.

this is basically my thoughts but I wanted to get some other people's opinions

Well I've never played in the ME so I can't definitively say what kind of players play in it, but I have played quite a few bracelet events, and I can't believe that an average 2/5 winner would be in the top 15% of skill based on what I saw. They might get lucky every once in awhile, but I disagree they are +ev.

One giant problem with your analysis is that you don't have to be in the top 15% of skill in an event to be +EV in that event.

The worse the worst players in an event are, the higher % of the field is that can be +EV. As an illustration, imagine a 10 person $1100 tourney with $100 rake. So $10,000 in the prize pool. You could have EVs of:

Player 1: $2,400
Player 2: $1,900
Player 3: $1,600
Player 4: $1,300
Player 5: $1,200
Player 6: $700
Player 7: $600
Player 8: $180
Player 9: $120
Player 10: $100

The top 50% of this field is +EV, thanks to the bottom 3 players being dreadful.

The worst players in the Main Event include rich recs without a clue, people who won contests that have no clue, panicked "bucket list" players who are complete dead money because they are terrified to bust, etc. That allows more of the top part of the field to be +EV.

Interesting comment from DNegs in most recent podcast around minute 29:30:

"If anybody is winning at 2-5 or 5-10 is probably worth 1.5 or more in the Main Event."

Obviously he is far more knowledgeable than I on this topic, but this seems a little too optimistic. However, lends support to the belief that 2-5 players would be +EV.

Maybe. But he hasn't played against typical 2/5 players in decades.

A solid 2/5 player is definitely +EV in the Main Event. I think even a winning player at 2/5 is going to +EV. (Eg. if a player can beat 2/5 NL for 2BB/100, they are going to be +EV, but not by a huge amount. Maybe +115). IF the player is a winning online 2/5 NL player for the same 2BB/100 hands, they will be +140.

I think the inflection point is a good 1/2 NL player will be a slightly +EV in the main event. The areas that I think weaken them are correct short stack play. But all of the fundamentals are there.

I also think most people over estimate there edge in tournaments by a very larger margin. A lot of good players think there are +300 EV in the main event. I disagree

Seriously? So who's providing all the money for the prize pools, that are -EV? All the crappy 1/2 players? Where are they getting ten grand to enter this tournament?

Some people who make a living in mtts could be -ev playing super deepstack in the main if they are mostly playing under 20bb effective stacks when the real money is on the line. And some guys who beat deep 2/5 game may not play well with antes or when the stacks are shorter.

Lots of people have more than enough discretionary income to enter poker tournaments, even ones with a $10K buy-in. Some don't play larger stakes cash games because they don't have anything available close by...after all, even a lot of casinos outside of Las Vegas will often only have a $1/2 or $1/3 game running at a given time.

Further, just because someone only plays low stakes does not preclude them from having lots of money to have fun with...