Hi ,

This question is to all who are good at dissecting structure by S Points

Housewarming structure is rated as S Points = 78. Tournament Last total 3 days Day1A,1B,1C,1D + Day2+ Day3 .

As I understood that’s very fast moving structure.

As per past experience tournaments should attract 5000 runners per starting day.

As per structure sheet combined day 2 ends when 5 players remains ( around Level 39)

Is it achievable ?

Seems unlikely. If there are 20,000 runners, that means there are 1 billion chips in play, and level 39 is 1.25M/2.5M, meaning 400 big blinds in play, so for there to be 5 players left, 80 BB avg stack. My guess is they get to 5 players more like L44.

The structure sheet says 17 levels or 5 players, whichever comes later, but I wonder if they will do it whichever comes first instead. Seems crazy to play 22 40 minute levels on Day 2 just to come back on Day 3 and play like a 4-6 hour final table or whatever.

Good points Black Aces. Let’s go little back ,with the structure sheet in front of us can you guesstimate how many will be left after level 22 on day 1 with approx 5000 starting ? As payouts starts on each day 1 ,will you say 10% of the field will be left ie 500?

I think less than that, probably considerably less. Level 22 is 25/50-50, so 5000 big blinds in play. I'd bet the average stack is around 25-30 blinds at that point so 170-200 players. Once the bubble bursts on each Day 1, there will likely be a flurry of eliminations.

So Day 2 will start, IMO, with 700-1000 players, and has 40 minute levels and no skipped levels, so will take quite a bit of time to burn through those players.

Obviously this is all rough thumbnail sketches.

BlackAces you gave me great pointers. Here what I came up with.
If we take Last years very similar tournament Reunion as our base.
Reunion had 3 starting day 1 . Housewarming has 4 starting day 1.
Reunion had 12973 runners. 638 made it to day 2.(4.9179%)
Housewarming will get 16000 (Between 4 starting Day1)and 786 will make day 2 with average chips 1017811. Which will be 16 BB average (Level 23 is 60K 30K 60K). Looks like they will achieve what they are thinking , at the end of the day 5-7 players will be left.

I think you might me underestimating a couple things:

1) I wouldn't be surprised if demand dwarfs last year due to the lack of restrictions and people being generally more willing to travel. Yes, costs are high, but poker tournaments seem to be booming wherever they are offered, so I don't see why the summer WSOP would be any different.

2) The new venues have a lot more room and could accommodate larger starting flights, and faster re-buy seating. I have no Idea what the plan is, but if its anything like the original Big 50 event, they will use all available space for some of these starting flights. At a minimum they should have as much room as the Rio had max, and still have room left over for cash or other activities.

I would anticipate this event will break records for attendance. 20K+ seems doable. Comparing to last year may not be warranted.