Quote:
Originally Posted by Tenesmus
I have a conundrum. I have no idea what to play on Saturday, June 18th; WSOP Milly Maker $1500, Orleans $1000, Wynn $1,100, or Venetian $600. Honestly, I'm trying to figure out where the best players WON'T be that day. I'm thinking Milly Maker will be slammed, and the pros who hate the big, crowded WSOP $1.5k's will head to Wynn, meaning I should probably play the Orleans $1k final flight, right?
To me the answer is clearly Milly Maker.
As a WSOP event, it's going to have the highest concentration of shot takers, satty winners, and punters. Softest field.
Then you look at the structure. 25k starting stack. 60 minute levels.
6/18 Wynn is 25k starting stack and 30 minute levels. Close to a turbo.
6/18 Orleans is 30k starting stack and 40 minute levels (60 minute day two). Marginally bigger stack, but much faster day one.
So with the Milly you get the weakest field and the most time to realize your edge. Seems clear to me.
Wynn will likely attract a lot of pro types who don't mind burning $1k for 30 minute levels.
Orleans is interesting for one reason: at $750k guaranteed, it may only attract 1000-1500 runners. So you have a somewhat real shot of making the final 100.
Biggest issue with the Milly is that the field size (8-10k?) will make it effectively impossible to realize your true EV.
All the same, I still go Milly because I want to play 60 minute levels vs. shot takers.