Most of the Bounties are on day 2 and minimum payouts already started on day 1 after 15% of the field left . You have to judge every all in on the merit or situation. What is your position. How many BB you have left . What are the size of stack of players behind you etc . If you have really small stack , you don’t have many choices.
Players with real big stack will definitely calling every AI from smaller stack

I disagree. Or maybe we are talking about two different things. There is only one set of factors which determine outcomes and this set is entirely comprised of skill (the things we can control) or luck (the things we cannot control), or some mixture of both. It is the ratio between the two which matters, not their absolute quantities. Increasing the number of luck factors does not diminish the number of skill factors (they are independent, as you wrote in the article). But it sure does reduce the ratio of skill to luck, unless an equal number of skill factors are also added. And this matters because the lower the ratio, the larger the sample size necessary for the factor to manifest itself statistically.

Imagine a scenario that involves 1% skill and 99% luck. It will take a very large sample size to statistically demonstrate that *any* skill is involved. Conversely, if a scenario involves 1% luck and 99% skill, it will take a very large sample size to statistically demonstrate that luck plays any role.

If skill plays even a minute role, then eventually it will manifest itself as advantage. And of course, in the aggregate, higher-skilled players will continue to enjoy an advantage over less-skilled players. But that aggregate will take a lot longer to show its face when there is more luck involved. This is the main reason why skilled players prefer slower structure, all else being equal. If blinds went up every minute, higher skilled players would still do better. But it would take a very long time for anyone to be able to see that born out in statistical analysis of an individual’s results.

As tourneys start introducing more and more luck factors, skill gets pushed aside. Those who believe in the advantage of controlling the things you can control, will find their control has less meaningful impact on their results, especially in the statistically small number of events that typical players participate in over time.

This does not mean poker would becomes less “fun” or enjoyable. But it does mean it will become much more of a game of chance instead of skill. I don’t necessarily see a reason why poker needs to move in that direction.

Assuming your skill level is relatively stable, regardless of which format you play, then where does this huge variance you describe come from except from the introduction of luck?

There are certainly differences between regular bounty and mystery bounty tournaments when it comes to the ratio of skill/luck and I hope I’ve made it clear that it is the latter I have a bigger problem with. I think you agree for pretty much the same reason, though we describe it differently. The increased luck introduced in mystery bounty tournaments does not decrease the absolute amount of skill which plays a factor in these events. But it does decrease the meaningfulness of that skill. And that’s what matters.

This isn’t really a strategy thread, but of course, if a bounty and the equity it represents is at stake when an opponent is making a decision which puts all of your chips at risk, than his/her decision will be affected. It is not just perceived equity. It’s real equity. In some of these bounty events, even the non-mystery variety, the bounties may be larger than finishing in the top 5% of the field… so if there’s still 15 or 20% of the field remaining, the bounties can play a big role in results and the decisions which chase after them.

Something resembling news.

MGM main event has been moved from 6/28-7/3 to...



Full Aria schedule allegedly coming in early April.

Do you think the MGM will have a full tournament series like they started last year?

No clue. IIRC their announcement came late last year and was out of the blue.

Not sure if they regard their series as a success or not.

I chatted with an MGM contact a few days ago who had recently asked the current poker manager about it...

Apparently, it will be a lot smaller and won’t be competing with any of the more famous rooms’ tourneys and he plans to publish part of the schedule by April 15, but will leave the final week events unpublished until later.

That's a bummer. I liked there schedule last year.

I often wonder what the logic for holding back schedules is? It seems like it really hurts a venue's changes of success.....

If you hold back, you can pick and choose your spots to take advantage of holes in other schedules. Also, running a series is usually a logistical challenge and getting approvals is not always a speedy process. Higher-ups don’t always understand the rush.

That's unfortunate if true. Their series last year was probably ambitious to a fault. So many different events and variants. It seemed messy.

There's actually shaping up to be a bit of a supply vacuum in what I would call the mid stakes rec space (higher than $200, lower than $1k). Wynn and Venetian are leaning into high-ish price points (lots of $1k+ stuff from the looks of it). Nugget and presumably Orleans will cater to the budget crowd. That leaves almost nobody trying to occupy the middle ground. Guess we'll just have to see what Aria comes up with. They may crush it this year if they can provide options in that $400-600 range again like last year, as there doesn't seem to be a huge amount of competition in that space.

I might be wrong but I assume aria will run $400/600s like years past which will
Be somewhere I go. I kinda hate how Venetian doesn’t throw any budget $400 or 600
Big gtn events when the series is going on. I know limits on space but I love those smaller ultra stack events bc the structures are really good + you get a lot of bad players (def some top level guys will play but majority is recs).

Aria is nice. I wonder why they run 400-600s. Their cliente seems like rich folks so I find it odd they run lower buyin stuff but it’s prolly smart bc they are by far nicest place that runs budget stuff. Idk about golden nugget, orleans etc but aria is light years nicer than those venues. Wynn also runs some more expensive mtts but structures are kinda meh for 1 day bigger buy in events.


Idk I wish Wynn and Venetian would just run 1-2 more smaller buy in mtts. Nothing against the WSOP but I would rather player at Wynn or Venetian where the field sizes aren’t super insane (think 3k+ runners) + the venue is just much nicer. It would be cool if casinos could kinda feed off each other and run bigger gtn smalle buy in ($400-600) mtts that wouldn’t conflict. Like say Venetian runs a $600 200k gtn Monday-Thursday and then Wynn would
Run a $400-600 on the following weekend with big gtn. I know goofy to run small stuff when you rake more and have so many players in town taking stupid shots for a big score.

I’ll prolly go to vegas in may to hit some $400-600 buyins at the Venetian. Find the stuff in June-July too expensive for my budget and I ended up getting soul crushed last summer at the WSOP/ Wynn/ Venetian by taking stupid shots I probably shouldn’t have taken.

I feel you. I think it's simply down to space. They don't have the space of Bally's/Paris or even the big Nugget tourney room, so they just crank up the buy-ins to make max $$$ per head. They know with Euro, SA, and Asian tourists, they will still get plenty of people even at a high price point. I think it's that simple. Higher buy-in = higher total rake per player. They probably figure they'll make more with smallish field $1k events than a $400 or $500 that may attract marginally more runners. It also takes less space and fewer dealers/waitresses/waters/cocktails/etc.

I'm with you in wanting more mid-level offerings, for largely the same reasons. Once you get over the spectacle of the WSOP, you realize it's just massive fields with huge prizes buried behind a mountain of variance. All credit to anyone who can bink huge at the WSOP, but there's definitely something to be said for playing those 200-400 player events at Wynn and Venetian throughout the year where the FT isn't a total pipe dream. When I look ahead to my summer schedule this year, I'm probably going to end up playing only 1-2 bracelet events while hitting quite a few tournaments elsewhere.

Main appeal of WSOP is the "atmosphere" if you want that, the softness of the fields, the chance for the bracelet, and the opportunity to play weird stuff like Razz and 2-7. From a NLHE standpoint, you're going to be fighting through immense fields to realize a significant profit. It's even more of a lottery than your standard MTT.

Other than the ME and a few other tourneys, the WSOP isn’t nearly as soft as it was 10 years ago.

As for appeal, to each their own. But for me, the prizepools are pretty much it. There are some great individual events and series throughout the year around the world. But nothing holds a candle to the summer WSOP. I kinda wish their structures were just a little faster in some events so as to make grinding them a bit easier.

Ditto for me .!

I always like big prize pool ,buy-in $500-$1500.

I don’t mind big players field.

I love to follow “S” point analysis to pick the tournaments I play with acceptation of 1 or 2 lowest buy-in events. As per my understanding , anything over 90 is good.

This year planning to play Mystery Bounty, Gladiator, Some $600 Deepstack,Senior, Super Sr. and ME.

Also some dailies (Starting at 1pm or 2pm ).

Waiting for PLOG’s analysis to be finalize. (Tried to do the analysis myself, but couldn’t figure it out even with very simple instructions provided with S point calculator )

What I am saying is , waiting for “s” points analysis to decide what non WSOP tournaments I chooses to play while not playing WSOP.

If any amateur truly wants a realistic shot at a WSOP final table or even a bracelet, they should learn Razz or 2-7 triple draw lowball. These are poker variants that are easy to master and harder to be outplayed by pro's. If you can learn the simple math and know what to do in common spots that come up often, you will do well. There was a 2 year span where I only played Razz on Full Tilt and it is a straightforward game. With fields of approximately 350-450 players every year in the $1,500's, you have one of your best shots at winning a bracelet.

Sure, but that applies to poker in general. The level is higher. Games are tougher.

I'd still say the WSOP is relatively soft at each price point. For example, a $400 multi-day event at the Wynn is going to be much tougher than the $400 Colossus at the WSOP. The same pattern should hold for a $1k, $2k, $10k, etc.

The WSOP brings out some very tough players from around the globe, but also draws a lot of casual recs who will only take a few shots per year. The fields balloon as a result of all the casual punters and become a little bit softer to work through on average.

Wynn just released their schedule

https://twitter.com/WynnPoker/status...477198849?s=20

I feel wsop has to be hella tough late even in the gigantic $400-800 fields bc so many pros play them. I can’t imagine how many really good players must have chips late bc there still is a solid number of bossier players even though the field size is gigantic. Personally I think the aria 400-600s are prolly a good variance reducer somewhat bc field sizes aren’t gigantic at that price point. I almost wanna say it’s smart to play $1100-1600s at Venetian / Wynn Vs wsop 600-1.5k just due to field size. I feel Venetian and Wynn get a lot of dumb rich money where folks play bc they have big life rolls but don’t know game that well per se. Feep there is more value playing venetian mtts even if its a little above your roll bc field sizes are more maneagable.

anyone here play the tourny of champions at the wsop? i won my 2nd circuit ring recently so plan to play the freeroll. it paid 250k last year to first and field was 470 players. The structure is really solid for a free roll. I’m kinda bummed though bc a lot of the tournies around 5/31 and later are higher buyins (at Wynn and Venetian). I’m going to the Venetian in may and playing 2 600s and a 400 ultra stack to get my action in this summer. I still think 400-600venetians offer insane structures and a great shot at a nice bink. Fields tend to be hella soft so I recommend them to anyone that is semi patient and can wait around for good spots.

Looking back at last year, Orleans released their schedule on April 8th, so I would expect a similar date this year, perhaps a wee bit later. They canceled some tournaments last year due to missed targets, so I would expect they will put a little more care into finalizing their schedule to avoid anymore debacles.

The WSOP used to be unique in having single table sattys. You could play them all day long if you won enough or had enough cash. There was not much concern of winning too many and not having events to be able to play in because you could sell excess lammers. No more. The lammers are history and so are the STT's it seems. Most of the appeal of the WSOP is gone for me now.

Even without the financial aspect the sattys gave you a place to play. They were great if you just wanted to play a lot. Get knocked out and you can be playing again in an hour or less. Not so with bracelet events or megas. No poker where I live, so it's pretty much the only place all year where I can play a lot.

The WSOP's new satty scheme almost guarantees that Venetian, etc fields will be smaller. Any mega wins at WSOP will have to be played out there. No selling lammers and taking the cash to play at Venetian, et al. Venetian use to have a thriving sng satty presence, but it must be dead now or close to it. I went there a couple years ago to check it out and it was wheezing.

Wynn Summer schedule is out


https://www.wynnlasvegas.com/casino/poker

So sad. I am there from 5th to 25th. The Omaha event is before I get there. No other omaha or stud, or horse while I am there. I don't like PLO. I had to get my reservations and plane ticket bought. They just wait so late. The room rates and plane fare have went up quite a bit since I made my reservation.

Here's what you would input into the calculator for the Gladiator:

Structure:
https://www.wsop.com/pdfs/structures...5219_21683.pdf

Calculator:
https://www.rainbowspuppiessunshine.com/pokercalc/

Total Buy-in: 300
Vig & Fees: 54
Level 6 Orbit Cost: 2000
Level 10 Orbit Cost: 5000
Level 14 Orbit Cost: 15000
Level 18 Orbit Cost: 40000
100% Minutes: 510

My guess is 100% Minutes is the hang up. For it, first identify the last level you can play before the Orbit Cost is greater than the starting stack. For the gladiator the starting stack is 30000, which makes Level 17 the last you can play before the blinds/antes exceed it (SB + BB + BB Ante = 6000 + 12000 + 12000 = 30000). Levels are 30 minutes so 100% Minutes = 17 * 30 = 510.

Hopefully that makes sense and you can do the others if you need. Otherwise it will be a few weeks until my site is reloaded with the 2023 tournament data.

You might want to check this schedule for mixed games during your stay

https://public.tableau.com/app/profi...023SummerPoker