My presumption is that Day 1 B (the 4th of July) may be the nut low as that would have the biggest disproportionate amount of euro wizards in it (relative to proportion of affluent Americans there "for the experience" or guys/gals who won the seat in their local basement / bar league).

Thoughts?

Few ways you can look at it:

Which day are rich whale tourists most likely to play? You could argue 1A. Someone for whom money is no object may just check the first day the event is running, book for then, and buy in for the full $10k. In theory, the later days should have a higher concentration of shot takers who are grinding the mega satellites in the first few days trying to win that seat. So maybe day 1D is going to have the highest concentration of random punters who won their way in off a $1-2k investment. Whether or not that's a GOOD thing is debatable, as you'd think these people might have decent skill to win that seat (though we know any one given satellite is mostly about luck).

If you want to play against bucket list old men with big bank accounts, I would play day 1A.

If you want to play against shot takers who might be scared money, I would play day 1D.

1C would seem to be the worst since pros will take that day to give themselves a longer break before day 2.

All things considered, I'd probably roll with 1A. The downside is you're eating a few extra nights of hotel expenses. That wipes out some of the EV perhaps, but you can utilize that extra time to play cash games, 1 day events, etc.

I'd worry that a lot of downtime would lead to playing stuff that would cause me to lose focus.

I arrive in Vegas on Sat 2nd and playing the Main. I had the same question and decided to play 1D.
-I think it is gonna be the softest day: rec players traveling the minimum amount of time possible to play the main (so catching the last day)
-Shot takers who will play scared money

I think 1B is the worst day to play. 1A and 1C are close. I'd lean 1C>1A.

Also, it works well with playing the 1k bounty donkament. So i'll play this one before.

What are your travel plans? Accommodations? Will you try to register 'day of'?

From a strictly 'skill' day, I tend to agree that 1B may be a tough one but you never know 'these days' since there's almost a parallel schedule of larger BIs plus other tournaments at Venetian and Aria that may show some good value, pushing the entries until C or D .. might we have an E this year? (Probably not since there's much less of a Dealer crisis right now than last Fall.

Historically ..
1) 1A has the least entries with the lowest percentage of 'bagging' Players .. so perhaps more gambling towards the end of the night since there's such a long time between sessions going forward?

2) 1B typically produces the overall chip leader going into both Day 2s .. Does that mean more Pros or just more action? (Exception last Fall where 1C did)

3) The last scheduled flight produces the highest percentage of 'bagging' Players .. which may bode 'better' on Day 2 since those Players will now be forced to play more aggressively after a passive Day 1.

4) Typically 70% or more of 'any' Day 1 field bags, with an amazing 80% bagging Day 1C in 2019 .. so the spread is fairly small around the 'mean'.

5) Might you consider entering at the start of either Day 2 to save on 'costs' .. and with 75 or 60BB during the first two Levels. And based on #3 you would probably lean towards the 2nd Day 2 with a presumed flatter average stack.

6) Counter to #5 .. There's 'so much' value to playing the early Levels of the ME due to 'enthusiasts' .. But counter to that, how does 70%+ of the field then advance anyway?

7) Only 20% of the tables break on Day 1s .. So even if you pick a 'great' day to play you might be stuck at a monster table all day. This is why you pick the best day for your overall schedule and not necessarily the best 'skill' day of the event.

So much to consider, but you need to do it based on what you want your experience to include. While the Day 1s are attractive you still need to avoid all the pit falls and suck outs even if you're playing well. Deep stack poker can be a much different type of poker than a large portion of the field is used to playing. Are you ready to take advantage of that or will you be content in just sitting back and wait for premiums trying to avoid the coolers?

You never know what Players are thinking .. With the 4th being a Monday, a lot of Players may take advantage of that paid holiday in their travel plans. What are the odds you are going to have travel issues yourself with all the airline cancelations going on recently.

I'm not sure this will help you at all .. just some random facts and opinion .. GL

I have played all the different starting days at some point (even back when there was only Day 1A, 1B, and 1C).

I have found it to vary widely. I remember a few times playing Day 1D and thinking that I had one of the toughest tables. I remember playing Day 1C with a lot of first timers. It really does depend. My current plan is to probably play Day1A or 1B as historically, I have done best and gone deep on those days.

Depends on what your reasons are.

If the reason is to play the weakest opponents I can't tell you. I've played only Day 1A 3 different times. My tables were not particularly hard though on one there was a pro who I didn't recognize for 7 hours. I said "you look familiar do you play at Foxwoods?" and the rest of the table laughed in their shirts. It turned out it was Liv B but not the one I had hoped to run into. I ended up being his nemesis (his words) and he got eliminated (not by me).

If your reason is to save money then by all means show up for day 1D

If, like me, you need rest at some point then I would highly recommend day 1A or 1B because you will get rest before day 2 and then again before day 3 and then its like 5 straight days of play and then a day off before the final 2 days.

And I prefer Day 1A because if I lose I can fly out of Vegas on the 4th of July.

However, I am going to play at the Venetian on July 1 as a warm up and its a 3 day tourney so in theory I could be playing on the 3rd (Day 1A) and will need to take a day off so I would likely play Day 1C to leave Vegas a day earlier if I don't make Day 2.

Best of luck whatever day you choose!

I have always told people to just pick the day that best fits your personal schedule. Yes, the average skill level from one day to another will vary. But that variance will be swamped by the variance in which table within your day you draw. The variance from day to day will be maybe 10-20%. The variance from table to table will be 50% or more. So just go with what works best for you with respect to timing.

Cheers, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

So which one do you play?

The 2004 ME (001 AMM) was the first with two Day 1s .. and also the first played 10-handed although 2576 entries is a 'possible' number for a Day 1 these days.

An immediate search didn't turn up which of the Day 1s either Greg or Josh Arieh had played, but it was detailed that both were seen as more aggressive than most of the Players that year. GL

I'm flying back tomorrow (Thursday,30th) night, gonna fire the mini main to warm up. Playing 1C in the main figuring if I make a deep run in the mini main it finishes on sunday and take a full day off (4th). If no deep run I'll play something on sunday maybe daily deep stack. rest for me is key as I had a brutal schedule 2 weeks ago and would rather be fresh and sharp for the main.

I appreciate the feedback all.

Greg, I go back on here long enough to recall sweating YOUR run in these very forums. #ImOld

I haven't decided yet. Even when I do decide, I'm open to changing at the last minute. It's happened before, I get a bad night's sleep, and skip playing that next day, postpone it until the next day.

I played day 1a in 2004. I don't recall who it was, but Dan Harrington asked everybody at the final table, and then wasn't surprised to note that only 1 of the 9 had played day 1b. He figured having that day off made a big difference. Also, not only were we 10-handed on day 1, I drew the smaller-sized stud table for day 1. And then, at one point, we went 11-handed!!

Cheers, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Greg, still giving out fossil rocks?

Yes, but only if you bust me when I can't reenter. And, only if you don't activate the "Douchebag Clause", because douchebags don't get fossils. That clause only comes into play less than once per year, btw.

Cheers, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Always played the last starting day. Always extremely lol tables. The main event is very lol until at least day 5 day 6.

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk

I played Day 1D (last day one) and I was at two tables.

The tables themselves were not lol but there were some individuals who were fairly bad.

At my first table in the first level a guy on the BTN raised a 600 UTG open to 11,000. He did win the 600 and 500 from the blinds but I thought it was crazy. After the hand I told him he had bet 11,000 and he said "oops misclick". Which I thought was possible because color blindness and he might have been trying to raise to 2000 and put out what he thought were two 500 chips. Then about 20 minutes later I raised with A5s to 600 from CO, BTN called and he called from SB and BB folded. Flop was AQ5 two spades and he checked I bet 1200 BTN folded and he made it 11,000 again! This time he could have been trying to call mistaking the 5000 for 100 chips. But in the real world color blindness doesn't work like that (if memory serves). So I took it as a legit raise. Which it was. He had AKs spades and he never got there. Later he did bring up what he perceived as my dislike of his betting and I told him that it terrified me. But it was awful and he did bounce out first from the table.

At my second table there were some open limps but quality of play was still pretty good except that they thought I was opening strong always and folded almost always to my cbets.

I registered for the last day one because I got sick and needed the rest on the 4th and 5th of July.

But all in all it was a good thing.

Hope you are right about Days 2 through 5. Last year my three Day 2 tables were unbelievably strong and bounced me when I started with over 110,000 chips - including Greg Raymer (on my immediate left) and Ryan Reese (on my immediate right) on my second and third tables.

I guess to each their own as far as LOL goes, but this might be over by Day 6 this year! The aggro play that must be going on away from the PGo stream is just crazy. The average stack is just under 70bb and this is LEVEL 20 .. and Players are dropping like flies.

I'm not sure if this is proving the LOL point or not (probably is) but Players should be loving the potential to have this many chips this deep into a structure .. not participating in a big stack feeding frenzy. The 'mean' Player (#170) has 64bb, so the chips are close to being 'evenly' distributed as the average indicates.

Maybe a it will be today, but this tournament is going to come to a screeching halt at some point in time .. perhaps once 100 or so are eliminated today and the $100k paydays are 'within reach' and the pay jumps are more than a BI. The tanking/thinking will commence and the tempers/tilt will rise.

I don't have the background to suggest that losing 70% of a field in 5 Levels with these average stacks is LOL or absurd .. but it sure seems like it. GL