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Originally Posted by Shakedown Street
Forget about the WSOP happening this summer other than online events. Not a chance, unless the politicians and bean counters really don't care how many people get sick and die. In the fall, the virus is expected to be back, so even a late summer or fall reschedule makes little sense.
WSOP 2021 is in jeopardy too, unless they plan for late summer or fall. Even the 2021 summer olympics may not actually happen. This all may seem extreme, and it is, but not out of the question. This pandemic is unprecedented in modern times, but based on mathematical and scientific models these extreme fat tails are realistic.
The sobering reality most policy makers for business and politics don't want to discuss is that large scale gatherings such as live poker tournaments, concerts, sports (with fans in the house), conventions, theater, festivals etc. will not be completely safe from coronavirus until late summer 2021 or even fall 2021, after the virus has run it's natural course and a vaccine has been developed and made available to billions of people. This will likely take approx. 18 months or longer. This is scientific reality, beyond socio-political economic interests, and whatever somebody posts on YouTube .
Until there is a vaccine, and 60%+ herd immunity, one must be willing to risk getting the virus in order to gather in a large crowd. Some people will certainly be willing to take the risk. Others will not. Gov't and business will certainly open venues way before the scientific and medical community thinks it will be safe, because gov't and business will value gov't and business over human life. Same as it ever was (but higher stakes).
Personally, I won't be attending any events with large crowds until I see empirical evidence that it is relatively safe. I'm no guinea pig. Let the bold and fearless take the risks first. That will mean letting a few months of large events take place without significant outbreaks before going there myself.
Once people are deemed "immune" through antibody tests, they will be allowed to gather in large crowds. And crowds will also be allowed when surveillance testing and case tracing measures are better in place than they have been, or even are right now. Will the crowds be as big as normal? Of course not. But they will grow over time. And the timeline for this is much shorter than the vaccine. We're talking a few months, not upwards of a year or more as in the case of a vaccine. I never rule anything out completely (like saying there is a 0% chance of this or 100% chance of that). But the idea that we will have the same sort of social distancing measures in place throughout the country 6 months from now, never mind more than a year from now, are extremely far-fetched IMO. Society will not stand for it. This is not The Plague and i feel like the appetite for treating it as such will significantly diminish in the not-too-distant future.
But, of course, regardless of what the tests say and what the policies are, you will be free to abstain from living a normal life as long as you want.
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Originally Posted by PardoG
while I think your post makes a ton of sense and I agree with what a lot of you are saying, sadly I think politicians and citizens will put their own interest and the economy way ahead of this. They will sacrifice lives and safety and moreover, people just will not accept this "new normal" it's American culture. People will just eventually start going back to normal even if it's not safe until marshal law is declared. Sad but true, that's our country culture.
To say people value their own interests more than the interests of others is hardly an epiphany. That goes for both you and the culture you insinuate you're apart from.
And this notion of "do what I think is right, or else you're sacrificing lives and safety" is pure hogwash. A) because its an entirely self-obsessed way to view the world and B) because it ignores the reality that every single day of people's lives, whether there is a pandemic occurring or not, there are those in positions of leadership, influence and power who make decisions which sacrifice lives and safety. That is how the world works. And people seem capable of accepting it and going about their lives without too much trouble. It won't be any different with this.