Originally Posted by its_just_me
i dont want a nickel. i want this thread back.
Sorry. There's no primaries until next Tuesday, at which point this thread will explode again.
Obama looks to do very well in TX, and not so well in OH. Hillary needs big wins in both to maintain viability. Bill Clinton, James Carville, and other bigwigs in the Clinton camp have said as much. Hillary challenged Obama to come beat her in TX, and if he does (which I'd say is about 50/50 at this point) it's over. She can't call TX a must win and then keep going after losing. She'd just have no credibility. And even if she squeaks by in TX and OH, she's facing fairly sizable deficits and running out of time to make it up. PA will be the only big state left, and they don't vote until April 22. So she'd be looking at 6 straight weeks head to head with Obama in PA while the media is talking about her making a last, desperate stand. And that's a best case scenario for her!
In conclusion, Obama is the clear favorite to win the nom, and it will take a minor miracle for Hillary to win at this point. And that's not just Mayo: Obama fanboy talking. That's Mayo: number-cruncher talking.
Then in the general, Obama is a favorite over McCain, but I think it will be a lot closer than many pundits think. Stay tuned for my general election thoughts!