Originally Posted by siouxbrew
you think obama has this wrapped up?
I think he does.
Not at all. If a credentials fight ensues (which it will) over MI and FL, the DNC will be forced to seat those delegates. They wouldn't dare upsetting FL or MI. And Clinton won those seats, so she has those delegates. And if no one wins enough pledged delegates (which they prob won't), the superdelegates support Clinton by about a 2:1 margin.
But I really really really think we're now the favorite to win this mother. We're gonna take WI and HI on the 12th, and then it's all about OH and TX on March 4 (or maybe 5th - I don't have the calendar in front of me.) But there will be 3 full weeks between next Tuesday and the OH/TX day for Obama to campaign in. He oughtta pick up Ohio with fairly little resistance. If we could win TX, it'd be all over. I really think Obama needs to head to Dallas on Feb 20 and basically say "Clinton said she must win here. So I've come down here to beat her." Knockout punch ftw!
And Obama's ben doing so much better lately among Hispanics and blue collar voters. That bodes really well for OH and TX. And we're beating the pantsuits off of Clinton in fundraising, and we have all the momentum in the world (8-soon to be 10-straight wins!) And everyone expects John Edwards to endorse somebody soon, and there's no way in hell he'll endorse Clinton. My prediction is that Edwards endorses Obama sometime before Feb 20. And Edwards plays very well in TX and OH, and also PA which votes in April.
It's nowhere near locked up, a win in TX in March would lock it up, we're raising money like it's nobody's business, but TPTB like Hillary, and the delegates from FL and MI will prob be seated at the convention, which helps Clinton a lot. Also Edwards should endorse us soon.
70:30 Obama:Clinton at this point imo.