This wasn't an actual hand but was discussed in a video I was watching today. I think it's interesting to think through the right approach, especially since I think the instructor in the video didn't go into enough depth.

Let's assume there aren't any extraneous factors affecting the hand, such as stack sizes, ICM, etc.

Hero raises in EP with KhKd. A nit running 12/10/2 calls on the BTN and everyone else folds.

Flop comes As7c3c. How should Hero proceed?

In my mind the key aspect of this hand is what villain would do in response to a bet or check from Hero specifically with his non-set pocket pairs, which make up a decent portion of his range. A player this nitty likely would check behind or call with a flush draw, but those make up a small part of his range. Most of his range is good Aces and 22-JJ/QQ.

Would you:
1) bet/fold flop
2) bet flop (if called, what do you do on the turn?)
3) x/call flop (and what about the turn?)
4) x/fold flop

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Bet/fold flop, check/fold turn. Cowboys go back to the barn.


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x/c flop and x/f a lot of turns depending on sizing. betting flop accomplishes little to nothing given the range you assigned to this villain.

pretty sure the normal line is for hero to check flop.

personally i would bet turn if it comes off a third club otherwise check turn bet river.

The instructor did advocate for x/folding the flop on the grounds that (1) villain won't call a bet with a worse hand or fold a better hand and (2) if checked to, this villain will likely only bet his Aces.

However, I'm not so sure. Villain will definitely fold the small pairs (22, 44-66) to a bet but he could possibly call one bet with 88-JJ. A bet definitely won't fold a better hand however.

As for the check, will villain only bet his Aces? Or might he try to push Hero off his hand by betting some of his pocket pairs?

Obviously it depends on the particular villain but I think the instructor was wrong to automatically assume a nit will play it the way he suggested.

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If you check and they bet wouldn't it be more likely to be a flush draw?
I don't see a nit betting just a pair on an ace hi flop
I would check/call,then check/fold turn

I am interested in pareto principle here. Does this hand oop against nit range constitute enough of our profit overall to even get involved? I still say cbet 3/4 pot and not another chip beyond that.


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Possibly, though since the Ace hits hero's range he might opt to check behind and take the free card. But that is one more reason to question the assumption that villain will only bet a hand that beats us.

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C betting here isnt a good thing to do IMO.

X/c flop. Evaluate turn.