Some Background
US player. Had been playing MTTs since '07/'08 (SNGs & some cash prior to that). Had moderate-to-good success playing mid stakes MTTs mostly on FT & some on Stars (same name on sharkscope/OPR if still around, "Holliday4MVP" on Stars).

Then obv Black Friday happened. There were no other sites of any meaningful volume so .. that was it. I was done, having invested a good chunk of my 20s into learning the game, with the goal to have success at high stakes MTTs.

In 2015 I stumbled onto Bovada. Was pretty stunned at the volume there. It was (in 2015) somewhere between UB/AP and FT in terms of volume/traffic. Respectable, and worth playing, as long as withdrawals were legit. Sure enough they were and started a grind again.

Quickly it was obvious the game had evolved quite a bit. I wasn't shocked as I was starting to see this evolution before BF. Pre flop was much tougher. Took a little while to adjust .. my post flop skills needed to improve but I started profiting again.

Been playing on and off (other obligations) between summer 2015 and now. Went through the Ign switchover in late 2016. Volume is clearly lower since then.

Today
Started playing heavy volume again in mid January. In just the 6 months from the last time I ran serious volume I am just stunned at how little there seems to be to exploit in MTTs (esp late game). Don't get me wrong, there is still profit. But it's almost terrifying at how good a lot of players have become.

Ranges are way down .. it really feels something like A10 is the new AK and 99 is the new AA. So many more showdowns are forced thus increasing variance. By and large, it seems players aren't "giving up" their equity late in touneys (infrequent folding ... as a result of aggression, not -EV play). Accumulating chips w/o showdowns has become very difficult. 3 way all-ins (meaningful stacks or %s of stacks) are way up in frequency, again increasing variance. If I'm opening, I'm being 3 bet with high frequency .. if I 3bet pre I'm being 4 bet with frequency. Previous betting/opening patterns are still helpful in these spots but the frequency is what has me stunned.

Margins are still there but they feel as slim as they've ever been. Are MTTs "solved", or close to it? The MTT effort was always worth it (given enough time/volume) but with so much variance late in tourneys (having to showdown multiple winning hands) I feel like I'm at a point where I'm stuck and a little lost if I'm being honest. So many players seem to be making optimal decisions it seems like the margins will only continue getting slimmer.

As a very rough, generic example .. it would seem that today, I would need to win (at showdown) say, five or six 60/40s/flips from approximately the final two tables to 1st whereas even 6 months ago it was half that.

What are the thoughts out there surrounding MTTs at this point? I honestly can't believe the evolution of the game even just over the last ~6 months.

I imagine a lot of your games are at $55 level and above. Players have just gotten better and there are a lot of good players, stables, software. Can you still be become a crusher? Sure but you will have to work insanely hard and a lot harder then you used to and also run good at late game stage.

It's the last part that has me most concerned really. Too many showdowns forced effectively turns the game into flipping coins in the parking lot.

The primary skill in MTTs is the ability to accumulate chips w/o showdown. There aren't zero spots to do so, but there are literally very few, depending on dynamics of F2 and FT.

Obviously you have to run good late game regardless .. you always have to win a 60/40 here, a flip there, not run QQ into KK etc. But being able to exploit weak players @ the F2/FT/pay jumps to have those extra "gambling" chips is difficult .. because there are so few weak players present.

Of course, there are always great players late .. but there's also usually some decent or workable mixture of rec players, too. This consistently skewed ratio of sharks:fish is what concerns me.

What software are you referencing? HUDs .. or something else/in addition?

Sometimes I'm at a table and it feels like I might as well be playing with my cards face up. I literally haven't felt this way since I started MTTs.

Has anything in particular changed on Ignition/Bovada over the last 6 months that could have caused a substantial increase in +EV players and/or a substantial decrease in -EV players?

Ive spoken to a large number of profitable live players who talk about playing on Bovada. What I hear from those players is that the player pool is heavily weighted toward strong players. There are a few reasons for this in their opinion: first that the site is unregulated making the games themselves unregulated (potentially unfair) and the second (/most important reason) is because the player pool is significantly stronger than on the larger sites. The people who flock to Bovada are looking to play in a regions that don’t regulate online poker. Therefore the player pool is heavily weighted towards stronger players (&bots) who can really say? Playing higher stakes puts you into an even higher category of profit and of player strength. Either way its bad news for players. I don’t think it matters how hard you study MTTs in this environment. How strong can your edge ever be in MTTs against a proficient/unregulated field? Not strong enough to make a living IMO.

If you have a dream, you should chase it. I’d chase it in another country online or live before I think about poker as solved. It certainly isn’t (although edges are smaller online). Think scientifically! Does sample size matter in a study with no control group?


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Not even close. Overall MTT level of play is still laughably bad even at high stakes.

But ChuckBass didn't make 10k at micros.

think about this:

Do you think the overall play from population is better or worse now then pre BF? 90% of people are going to say better obv because its natural as time goes by edges get smaller coz people get better as they learn more about the game and get more experience playing. There will always be 'new fish' coming in but that variable always had stayed consistent anyway while people getting better is always on the rise.

In my opinion MTTs are far from solved even by the best players but edges online are smaller than they ever have been in the past, its natural evolution in any foodchain eco system that the weak overtime get forced out leaving only strong players battling other strong players, its a fallacy to not accept this is the case.

Money can be made but as colin pointed out you have to work incredibly hard and not follow trends, instead see what the current trends are and come up with a counter-strategy to make the most money. One thing for sure tho is the top 1% of players online are still making decent coin.

PIO Solver, ICMIZER/HRC, Flopzilla, Snowie... the list goes on

I'm in the same boat, just getting back into it post BF. Have Bovada and BCP, haven't played much MTT on Bovada (I use it in the work truck because you can play on mobile.) I'm sure if it wasn't anonymous we could find ways to exploit our opponents. BCP still has a lot of fish. I have done well though on Bovada playing $25 NL zoom

I remember you from pre BF. I have since moved on to live HS cash but still dabble on ignition and ACR from time to time. I think for sure that I fell behind the curve, I have broke even around the last 1k mtts, probably pretty standard but I don't think my edge is that great in the late stages where it needs to be. Part of this is being super rusty and being used to deepstack play, but I do think there are some adjustments that need to be made and if you study and learn some of the new trends you should be ok. The real question is why? Do you have access to live games, or can you try to beat NL200+ online? Online mtts are truly the nut low. They do not translate in anyway to being actually good at poker. This is not to demean the members of this board who can probably beat me now in MTTs, but seriously its the worst lifestyle possible and it's also the highest variance. Do something else, imo. Would never go back!

Was at 21 expected bb/100 @ $5ABI.

The game is obviously much tougher at higher levels, but low stakes is a complete donkfest.

That's because his bet was ******ed, he needed to have 1k BIs and despite this he still crushed the game.

If it were 100BIs, he likely would've cruised to 10k relatively easily.