Won a 2€ knockout for 490 euros or so, bounties included. Don't think I had a single other 3-figure score but grinded +70€ type days all week

hey good luck with the challenge, fww i think you poker logic and reasoning are solid and you can win this bet for sure but is just a mental game/stamina question for you imo (also hope your health is good because as far i remember u had some issues)

also want to say that i love you stories/way you are telling them and find them very entertaining to read starting from pokerstrategy blog u used to have so if u decide to leave poker thing for good and start writing for a living hope that you gona have success in that too and you will not need to have some 9-5 kind of job

gl

Gooooo chucky! Subbed

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Got questions for you. So i read that you are a solid mtt player and you been playing for a long time. Is the reason why you are playing this low stakes because you have a limited bankroll? Or do you have the bankroll to play 11/22/33 or 55 dollar tournaments etc? I also assume its because due to expenses, thats why you dont have the bankroll to play at least low stakes? Like the 10 dollar+ level?


You mention that if you lose this prop bet, you would be pretty much bankrupt. But overall you are still up a good amount in poker right? I believe i read somewhere you posted you are up total like 300k total in mtt? But of course if you factor that over 10 years, that isn't a lot and of course you have expenses etc.


So im just curious why you are doing a prop bet on basically micro stakes mtt. Im guessing the bet size of this is pretty big etc?

nice! keep up the hard work

tytyty guys


Alright so here's my lifetime graph, it's missing some stuff from the early days and untracked sites, I'd say between 50-100k more of winnings. Regardless, I think the graph represents the direction of my poker career fairly well; I win less and less all the time and you can see the direction it's going in. It's not a very flattering one.


(that's total ROI fwiw, not av.ROI which is the basic setting that people use. It's just really misleading imo and the above is much more realistic)

Granted I haven't taken poker all that seriously in a couple of years now; I took two years mostly off to work on writing stuff so that I basically played poker like 1/3 of the year. I wrote 3 books, I wrote articles for 20+ different publications, etc so that was definitely time well spent and I've got myself a pretty sweet writing resumé now. This is why I'm not *that* worried about actually ending up at McDonald's or something if I lose, and quite frankly I feel like I'm wasting my life playing poker if it's not going anywhere.

Anyway, I kinda wanted to give the game one last shot, but to do that I need to get competent again. It's pretty easy to fall off the bandwagon a little bit when you don't really put any effort in in two years. During this time I only played somewhat variance-free stuff like 11s and 22s and those were still my main game before the start of the challenge. A very big reason why I wanted to do this is because this forces me to study (11 days in I've run 14 hours of sims + watched 10 hours of videos). I really want, and need to have that beastmode feeling when I play again, or then I'd rather just not play at all. I figured this challenge would be a pretty good way to find out if that's ever going to happen or not. If I win I'll have a pretty sweet bankroll and if I don't, oh well writing it is.

As for the challenge and why I started so low. For the last 2 years I've played 11s and 22s as my main game and selected 55s+ above on the side up to 300s. The sites I play on have a gap from 22 to 55 and I tend to stay away from tougher stuff so like 99% of my volume has been 22 or lower. I've basically never played as low as I had to start this challenge at and it's been quite an adjustment when people do crazy stuff all the time that you're not used to seeing even at 5s. Anyway, where the buyins stem from is from a long-standing challenge on a Finnish poker forum. They had this challenge where you need to turn 2k euros into 10k euros following reasonable bankroll management in 100 days and every single person who tried failed. It's a bit harder than it sounds because you crumble under pressure so much when you get close but the clock is also ticking. I wanted to do a similar thing, but I also wanted to make a big degen bet, and I don't think there's much of a bet there for me in the 2k-->10k challenge as I think I would've been like 80-90% to do it. I didn't want to stretch it in the other direction (say 2k-->20k) because I haven't played above 22s in forever and was, as stated above, really unsure about my ability. I wanted to try to grow my skills organically and beat level after level in a natural way, and after some tinkering these were the terms we reached.

I think it's a really fun bet in many ways. First of all it can get really gross for me really easily. Say I lose 200 of the 500 early on... I'm down to playing 1€ MTTs and the clock is ticking. Also it seems like no one had a good idea about my odds. You all saw how buffyslayer thought I had 5% to make it, and on the flipside a longtime reg at the Finnish forum wanted to bet 2000 euros to win 400 euros that I'd make it lol. Even I don't have that great of an idea of where the truth lies exactly, but I guess we'll find out.

I'll add that since this was always also going to be a bet that decides my future, I didn't want it to be anything completely crazy where I'd have a 5% shot. I realize that following those super crazy sick prop bets where you play one million hands in a month or something is more fun because those feats seem so unattainable. But for my situation, the closer to 50-50 the bet would be the better as those terms will give the universe a legit coinflip to help me out a little bit. I thought, and still think, that this is/was at least pretty close to a flip.


Lost 80 buyins over the last two sessions, fml

I think I said to you on Twitter. In hindsight my 5% estimation was kind of ridiculous/exaggerated and somewhere around 30% seems reasonable to me.
I honestly don't think it's close to a coinflip because of the parameters of the bet.
It's going to be gruelling to put in consistent volume after not doing so for so long. 40/50 days into the bet I think it will take it's toll and a downswing will be brutal on the psyche.
I hope you make it as it will be a big achievement but like others have said I hope you fail. As poker clearly is not what you want to do with your life.
best of luck man

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Just saw this, awesome read, GL
As many others I hope you can do it and I hope you fail. Most of all I hope, you do so as well, so it's a win/win situation already.

May I ask which books you wrote?

Week 2 in the books, was a pretty horrendous one. One winning day out of the last 7, onetabling a potential session saver tho as I write this.


Thanks! Book thread can be found here


Got one special hand for blakkman08, hands like this might be why I haven't been crushing but you gotta have heart and commitment

Prima, $10 Buy-in (125/250 blinds, 25 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 8,807 (35.2 bb)
Hero (BB): 6,966 (27.9 bb)
MP: 24,650 (98.6 bb)
CO: 12,570 (50.3 bb)
BTN: 3,640 (14.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5 6
3 folds, SB completes, Hero checks

Flop: (625) 2 3 3 (2 players)
SB bets 300, Hero calls 300

Turn: (1,225) T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 750, SB raises to 2,125, Hero calls 1,375

River: (5,475) T (2 players)
SB bets 2,750, Hero raises to 4,266 and is all-in, SB calls 1,516

Results: 14,007 pot
Final Board: 2 3 3 T T
SB showed 3 4 and won 14,007 (7,041 net)
Hero showed 5 6 and lost (-6,966 net)


NL game starting to feel sharper tho, overall I'm giving myself close to 50% to succeed still if I can avoid my head xploding at some point.


Some thoughts about post-career stuff have been starting to shape up (regardless of if I win or lose, but more on that later when I have a clearer picture of what I want to do). I can say with pretty strong certainty that I will at the very least put some serious effort into looking for a job that I'd like even if I win the challenge.

lol that hand

Haha OP has like in the good ol days

Confirmed

Gl

GL


The more days you play the better you will play. You will probably have to fight through the first couple of weeks where it sounds as though you will be very rusty. After that you'll be fine.

Very doable, its just a motivation issue.

I assume if you lose the initial 500 thats GG? (sorry if this has been covered)

Sorry for double post, 30min limit

Meant to post first day the thread existed, but glgl with this Chuck. Much <3

great thread and good luck

that hand tho

Wow. This thread very, very much resonates with me. Except that I already have the day job but I hate it, and am thinking and daydreaming hard about giving (mtt) poker one last shot. Same age as you so that pressure starting to count as well If not for myself then for my girlfriend.

I do miss the poker days back then, feeling like a boss (have to admit now I was very mediocre at best). I'm afraid I'm just hanging on to something like a degen or trying to chase a feeling that I can't seem to find anywhere else, but I have to know for sure. But to mix in mtts with my job would be close to impossible.

One question : what Sims are you running exactly?

Very best of luck to you. I'm very happy to have found this thread at this time. Go push yourself!

Soooooooooooo ****ing oi, played 23hrs of the last 36 hours, 200+ regspeed MTTs. Broke even at 5ABI and Stars gave me $3.40 from the 25 chests that I'd been awarded over the first 3 weeks. Can't breathe

3 weeks into the challenge (I started on Sunday the 1st) bankroll is at 2000€ and change. By stakes rough guesstimate (will do exact figures later)

2€ MTTs (including scattered 1€ and 3€ ones here too) up ~500 buyins
5€ MTTs up 200 buyins
10€ MTTs down 50 buyins

13evBB/100 so far over infinite hands. One 500€ score, one 180€ score, one 120€ score and not sure if there are any other 3-figure ones.

Profit prob 80% NLHE 15% PLO8 5% PLO.

135 hours played total and 45ish in the lab. Had to learn from scratch again but feeling pretty competent now so hopefully get to spend a little less time in front of the computer.

Definitely starting to crack mentally and physically, when I look in the mirror I look like I've been awake for a week straight, I'm too weak to go to the gym, I tried going today but I just turned around because I didn't feel like lifting a thing. Been doing 3x gym or climbing, 1x swimming per week up until the last few days when I've completely dropped the ball grinding 3x 11h+ sessions in 4 days and switching my sleeping pattern by 12 hours. There's absolutely no chance I can keep this up for much longer so I really hope 10s start working out better and I can play/study less and still make good enough hourly to win the bet. I don't know how you sickos do this on a daily basis, after 3 weeks I'm like a walking zombie.

Think I'm 60%ish to succeed now but that doesn't account for health/mental health issues etc which are probably reasonably likely to hit me at some point. I feel like the next 3 months are going to be hard as **** and I really wish I hadn't done this stupid bet because fml.



#gottahaveheart

Thanks, yeah I noticed the same -- I was super rusty for maybe 2 weeks but now I feel very sharp overall from playing almost every day. Yeah if I lose it all once it's gg. As long as I have a combined balance of 1€ or more I'm allowed to play freerolls tho.

Thanks my man, wish I had your skills so I could just complete this in one day playing hypers

TY

Yeah I don't think it's worth it to be honest, poker is starting to be a bit of a pipedream for all but the best of us (most likely myself included in the pipedream category), and it takes its toll on your life/health/sanity so it's really just not worth it unless you're doing well. And I kinda feel like if it was going to happen it would've happened already (again including myself here as well) -- it's better to just look forward and stop second-guessing your decisions. I find it incredibly unlikely that quitting poker to get a job can be a bad idea for 99,999% of people. But I know that's much easier to say when it's not about your own life. I still think I'm reasonably likely to call it quits too even if I win the bet. Just can't deal with this **** anymore

I'm studying 1 hour of HRC every day, 1 hr of Pio every day, now switching to more Pio and less HRC since I feel pretty competent at short stacks now after 2 weeks of super intense HRC grinding. I still run all the interesting spots tho that I encounter. Watching a couple of hours of vids per day too but admittedly that's sort of just pseudo-studying at this point as I don't have time or energy to really really focus on videos too most of the time after already having played 12 hours+running sims 2-3 hours on top of that.


tl;dr this prop bet sucks. Sorry if that ramble made no sense, I'm so tired I can't check for spelling errors. Also I did a parttimepoker podcast where I talked about this bet and the WSOP me bubble spew hand from this year, I think it's up somewhere now

Running sims for hours a day doesn't seem like a good way to spend your time to me. Not sure how helpful it is for the immediate task of crushing the micros (good longterm, but there is no longterm if you lose this). Would be way better to use that time to go to the gym, play more hours, or just chill out and sleep more imo.

glglglgl

O and what's your thought on Spins btw? Not interested in grinding those?

Xoxo

About poker being a pipedream, doesn't that depend heavily on one's monetary goals? Sure, being settled for live through poker is a pipedream nowadays, but making 2-3k a month f.e. still seems quite achievable? Or am I sorely mistaken?

Regards your challenge, it seems a super tough one but I do wish you the best of stamina (not luck as that's overrated).

It has to be put in the context of what's happening currently. AI and software are driving the biggest change in society since the industrial revolution. If you're motivated enough to make 3k a month from poker than you could make a lot more money in tech and with a faster learning curve.

Programming is still nowhere near as intuitive an experience as poker is currently but it's getting close.

With all due respect, if you think studying of any kind is a good idea with regards to this bet, then the game has passed you by already. PIO etc should only be necessary for very strong (truly intelligent proven winners) players who play high stakes. If you can't crush these stakes for 20BB/100 or so with no study then its definitely time to retire. If you really want to win the bet then stop playing all fancy vs people who barely know the rules, just use common sense and a solid exploitative strategy.