MTT Philosophy Quiz - MTT Poker Strategy - Multi Table Tournament Poker Forum

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MTT Philosophy Quiz

View Poll Results: Which would you you take?

$5 million guaranteed

19 79.17%

Coin flip for $1 billion or nothing

5 20.83%

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09-04-2022 , 06:55 PM

oldsilver

MTTLivePro

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 5,941

Quick poll exploring the nature of how people view EV in extreme situations. Comments welcome, especially if you’ve found yourself taking a less than optimal line at some key point in the past (mtt, cash, life…) due to the stakes involved.

You are offered a choice between a guaranteed five million dollars, or a coin flip for one billion dollars.

The offer is made to you only. It is made once only. You may not do a deal with any external party to insure against a flip loss. You must live with the outcome for the rest of your life.

Which would you choose?

Experienced MTTrs will be familiar with concepts of cEV, $EV, variance, sample size, bankroll management etc - but what if the opportunity is so large and rare as that it is impossible to diversify your risk?

On the other hand, there is this idea too:

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;

From ‘If’ by Rudyard Kipling

Last edited by oldsilver; 09-04-2022 at 08:34 PM.

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09-05-2022 , 12:13 PM

Bubblebust

adept

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 830

I took the $5M guaranteed, even though it's clearly the wrong EV choice. The reason is simple, I'm 49 years old and need about $5M more than what I have saved to comfortably retire. So while the billion would be nice, I never though it was realistic. So I'll take the $5M and retire, getting to have financial security and can play at lot more.

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09-05-2022 , 08:03 PM

Mr Rick

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 6,061

I'm in for the flip.

$5 million is a lot of money but $1 billion would be kind of interesting. Given that the average is $500 million vs the guaranteed $5 million I can't turn down the opportunity.

However if you had to win 2 or more coin flips to get the $1 Billion I don't know what I would do... I think with 2 I would still take the chance but I am calling Tails both times. Winning 3 in a row is a bit of a long shot at 12.5% and the coward in me would probably take over. And Winning 4 or more becomes difficult to stomach even though you are getting the right price up to winning 6 in a row.

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09-05-2022 , 08:32 PM

EggsMcBluffin

MTTPIOExpert

Join Date: Feb 2019 Posts: 1,457

The scenario also concerns diminishing marginal utility.

I'd take the $5M in a heartbeat.

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09-05-2022 , 09:32 PM

Bubblebust

adept

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 830

Quote:

Originally Posted by EggsMcBluffin

The scenario also concerns diminishing marginal utility.

I'd take the $5M in a heartbeat.

Yeah, to many (if not most people) the difference in their lives between having $0 and $5M might be worth more than the difference between $5M and $500M (the $EV of the billion dollar chance).

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09-06-2022 , 06:19 AM

Justo

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2020 Posts: 166

If the utility of money becomes quite flat past $5M for most people, maybe the WSOP main event should be less top-heavy

Take $5M off the top-3 prizes, and use it to add 500 more ITM places, and most people will be happy.

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09-06-2022 , 09:53 AM

Jozabell

newbie

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 43

You should get a job at pokerstars ;o)

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09-06-2022 , 11:53 AM

oldgoat

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 1,972

It's a personality test also
If you were altruistic or alternatively narcissistic enough you would take the flip - $1 billion would be enough to make a mark on the world
Personally I'm selfish and shallow so would take the $5m

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09-06-2022 , 11:58 AM

ledn

MTTLivePro

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 1,106

Free $5m and its not close. Dont even have to consider it.

Now if I was a multimillionaire already, I would be more willing to take the chance to become a billionaire.

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09-07-2022 , 02:25 AM

#10

Barfunkel

veteran

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 2,403

Quaranteed enough money (with great living standards) for the rest of my life vs 50% chance for way more money I could ever spend or need.

Easy 5 million.

Like said, if I was already wealthy I would take the coin toss, but as a poor person the choice is extremely easy.

The question would be more interesting if it was just a million IMO, perhaps vs a 100 million coin toss. Million is still a lot of money but for a young-ish person with a decent job it's not life changing kinda money really.

Oh and btw, do we have to pay taxes from this money? If we do, the 5 million is cut roughly in half.

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09-07-2022 , 05:51 AM

#11

oldsilver

MTTLivePro

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 5,941

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barfunkel

The question would be more interesting if it was just a million IMO, perhaps vs a 100 million coin toss. Million is still a lot of money but for a young-ish person with a decent job it's not life changing kinda money really..

Ty

The meme that sparked this post was indeed $1mil v $1bil and there’s a bit of personal bias in adjusting that to a $5mil level in the quiz. The figure will differ for everyone.

What’s your inflection point? At what $point are you indifferent between the options? $400mil $100mil $50mil $10mil $5mil $2mil $1mil $500k $200k $100k $50k $25k $10k $5k..?

Just a note, please do not post your actual figure, as that’s a fundamental piece of data.

But the thought process is interesting and likely safe to share. For me a large part is work-no-more.

Last edited by oldsilver; 09-07-2022 at 07:48 AM.

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09-07-2022 , 10:08 AM

#12

golddog

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 6,681

Kind of interesting subject. I think I go for the billion, as I'm already retired and don't need more spending money. As mentioned earlier, that gives one a chance to make a difference in the world in whatever area(s) you believe in.

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09-07-2022 , 11:31 AM

#13

Bob148

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 11,972

My tipping point is about 350k usd. Below that I might be able to chew back the regret puke while saying "well it was 349k or a flip..."

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09-07-2022 , 05:28 PM

#14

Beerocrat

champion of the sun

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 5,931

The emotional impact of losing a flip for $1B would be brutal.

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09-07-2022 , 05:30 PM

#15

Beerocrat

champion of the sun

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 5,931

Also is this ignoring taxes? $2.5M is quite different.

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09-07-2022 , 11:13 PM

#16

oldsilver

MTTLivePro

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 5,941

Let’s say it’s a non taxable windfall gain (for simplicity)

Last edited by oldsilver; 09-07-2022 at 11:30 PM.

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09-08-2022 , 04:39 AM

#17

dknt

enthusiast

Join Date: May 2021 Posts: 91

Money has diminishing returns the more you have of it. I'd estimate that even with 5mil I could live the rest of my life comfortably without ever having to worry about anything.

What does 1 billion really give me that I couldn't have with 5 million? I have no interest in traveling a ton, fancy dress parties, fancy cars, massive houses or anything. I'd probably just pursue my hobbies and interests all the same, with some hundreds of millions more in the bank.

Essentially, it's 100% to change your life vs 50% to change your life.

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09-08-2022 , 05:15 AM

#18

leviathan74

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 3,423

This changes if you already have 5 million in the bank.

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09-08-2022 , 11:59 AM

#19

Bubblebust

adept

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 830

Quote:

Originally Posted by leviathan74

This changes if you already have 5 million in the bank.

And trust me, it continues to change as you go up the ladder. I know several billionaires and even they will rachet everything up the more they have.

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09-08-2022 , 03:35 PM

#20

dknt

enthusiast

Join Date: May 2021 Posts: 91

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bubblebust

And trust me, it continues to change as you go up the ladder. I know several billionaires and even they will rachet everything up the more they have.

But what does that extra money bring them?

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09-08-2022 , 03:43 PM

#21

Bubblebust

adept

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 830

Quote:

Originally Posted by dknt

But what does that extra money bring them?

Honestly, I think it's mostly an ego thing. But they do enjoy their jets and boats.

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09-08-2022 , 04:25 PM

#22

Beerocrat

champion of the sun

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 5,931

The number of people I'd be able to help with $1B would give me pause.

If just for me and my family, $5M is plenty.

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09-10-2022 , 03:52 PM

#23

2pairsof2s

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 1,608

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bubblebust

Yeah what he said.

An additional $5 million would be enough to pay off everything and live in comfort forever, and I could stop worrying that my retirement income might not be enough to live comfortably in this very expensive city of Vancouver BC once I sell my house and have to pay rent, and I am going to have to move away or get a part time job or something.

At 25, i was a guy who bet his last and only dollar many times so no question that guy is flipping, but at 60 no way.

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09-11-2022 , 03:55 AM

#24

Frogman3

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 1,262

I would flip lol

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