OP,
I'd suggest taking a look at this thread
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/61...lator-1019988/
and play around with the variance simulator tool. Its a great way to get an idea of how field size/ROI/volume will affect your variance in MTTS. Playing low stakes large field tournaments is an absolutely variance fest. I ran 10 simulations (.99 confidence interval) with an avg bi of $20, 30% roi with an average field size of 2k players over 10k games:
You could lose 18k or win 138k over 1 year of MTTs.
Keeping all those things equal but change the field size to 350 players (my avg field size playing euro sites)
You will win at the minimum 19k with a max of 100k.
Of course, it would be next to impossible to play 10k games with strictly euro sites and there is potential to beat them for better than 30% ROI.
So, even if you put in a lot of volume you could potentially lose for a YEAR let alone a few months. However, with proper game selection and smaller fields you can def mitigate the variance.