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05-08-2018 , 11:48 AM

parfoomgirl

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 166

Having an ongoing conversation with a friend who will back me in MTT's. I think his expectations are unrealistic and that MTTs are long term results and you can go on long stretches without a cash. He believes if I am any good, I should cash in 20% of twelve tournaments.

I will show him all answers received. Thank you.

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05-08-2018 , 11:55 AM

LOLCh1pPorn

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 4,580

Your friend is delusional and shouldn't be backing anyone in mtts until he has a grasp of the variance involved

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05-08-2018 , 01:27 PM

ZFSB

journeyman

Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 251

Quote:

Originally Posted by parfoomgirl

in 12 tournaments you could easily cash 0% even if you were the best player in the world. it's poker!

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05-08-2018 , 11:08 PM

Kid-A

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 285

ITM %s are an absolutely meaningless statistic anyway. You could have a losing player who limps into the money over 20% of the time, or a huge winner who cashes 12% of the time. Either way, in live poker it's completely irrelevant because you'll never play enough tournaments for the statistics to be in any way meaningful.

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05-10-2018 , 01:24 AM

AggroSquid

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 321

Micro MTTs, especially on stars, you could literally have a sample of 1000s of MTTs and that sample would have no significant meaning given the number of people in each MTT (1000-30,000 per MTT).

Very very possible for a decently high volume player to break even over a year, especially if playing a spread of buy ins (Eg $2-$22).

That figure is just such a bizarre one to choose.

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05-10-2018 , 05:13 PM

Colin_Piddle

The Colonial

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 11,808

^depends on av field size . If can keep average field size very small 200-300 player risk of losing is only around 1% for a good player. If average field size is 1000 +, then risk of losing is still 16% for a good player.

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05-10-2018 , 05:15 PM

Colin_Piddle

The Colonial

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 11,808

I think if u were playing low field size between $2-$11 mtt high volume in a year and weren't winning your more then likely just not that good at poker.

If buyins are higher $11-$100 then it would be different.

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05-10-2018 , 05:24 PM

TheMcC

centurion

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 167

Quote:

Originally Posted by parfoomgirl

if I am any good

I would start by asking him how he decided on this 20% ITM figure.

Are you going to be playing in buy in levels that you've consistently beaten or dropping down / moving up? Variance aside, that could influence your level of success.

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05-10-2018 , 09:52 PM

MindSoak

newbie

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 20

There are so many other factors to consider if they are backing, but as others have pointed out ITM% is particularly irrelevant. If your friend really wants to focus on a simple formula at least go with ROI over a much higher number of entries.

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