Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Bubblefactor Bubblefactor

03-09-2019 , 07:04 AM
Bubblefactor

Currently I am working on my gameplan for a weekly live tourney in my local casino. 40 player event with first seven places getting paid. In the 2+2 forum I found a very interesting post regarding bubblefactors for even final 2, 3 and 4 tables, quite relevant for this particular event

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...ctors-1504943/

Pokerstars 45m $1 (7 paid).
2 1.0000 3 1.3428 4 1.5596 5 1.7136 6 1.8143 7 1.8687 8 2.0433 9 1.8075
FT2 10 1.6587 11 1.5562 12 1.4813 13 1.4242 14 1.3792 15 1.3428 16 1.3128 17 1.2876 18 1.2662
FT3 19 1.2478 20 1.2317 21 1.2176 22 1.2051 23 1.1940 24 1.1840 25 1.1750 26 1.1668 27 1.1594
FT4 28 1.1526 29 1.1463 30 1.1406 31 1.1353 32 1.1303 33 1.1257 34 1.1215 35 1.1175 36 1.1137
FT5 37 1.1102 38 1.1069 39 1.1038 40 1.1009 41 1.0981 42 1.0955 43 1.0930 44 1.0907 45 1.0884

My targeted event is quite old fashioned, playing all the way without antes. Therefore a preflop shove is winning a lot less and risking a lot more than usual. Nevertheless, to make the further discussion more realistic for standard tourney play, in my following calculations i will include an ante of 0,9 BB

So, how do I take consideration of a bubblefactor of say 1.2 by evaluating my needed calling equity vs villains shoving range? Say villain is shoving effective 11BB in my BigBlind, how much equity do I need for a profitable call against his shoving range (profitable in the sense of tournament equity, not chips of course)? Two solutions come to mind:

1.) Dividing the full pot by the bubblefactor. After calling we produce a pot of 22 + 0.5SB + 0.9 antes = 23.4BB. Divided by the BF 1.2 = 19.5. We need to invest 10BB to win 19.5. Needed showdown equity therefore at least 51.3%

2.) Dividing only the pot before calling by the bubblefactor. Before calling there is a pot of 11 + 2.4 blinds and antes = 13.4BB. Divided by the BF 1.2 = 11.17. We need to invest 10BB to generate and win a pot of then 21.17 BB. Needed showdown equity in this calculation is dropping to 47.2%

For a start, I would appreciate any help and suggestion by calculating the bubblefactor regarding needed calling equity. After solving this issue, more questions will follow ...
Bubblefactor Quote
03-12-2019 , 11:06 AM
I did some research by myself, but without much success. Icmizer2 explains in an article from 26.July 2018, how to calculate the bubblefactor. In the same article it suggest the formula
Equity = BubbleFactor / (BubbleFactor + 1) * 100%
According to this formula, with a bubblefactor of 1.2 the required equity for a profitable call would be (1.2/1.2+1) x 100%, equals 54.54%. But this formula does not consider the blinds and antes, especially with lower stacks the needed equity should be significantly lower.

To highlight the relevance of my question (how to calculate my needed callequity considering my actual bubblefactor) another more complex, but nevertheless ordinary example:

With a stack of 20BB and a bubblefactor of 1.2, we are minopenraising 2.2BB (say in the CU), to win an initial pot of 2.4BB (including ante). The Small Blind is reshoving his last remaining 14BB, risking his tournament live, threatening to cripple our stack. How much showdown equity do we need for a profitable call ?

1) ChipEV call would be 41% (12.3/30) but does not take our tournament equity into account and is therefore not helpful at all

2) We divide the existing pot by the bubblefactor 1.2 ahead of our call. The SB reshove builds the pot to 17.7BB (our 2.2, the SB 14.5 + 1BB), : 1.2 equals 14.75. We need to invest 12.3BB to win a pot of 14.75 + 12.3BB. Required equity already 45.5%

3) We divide the full pot after our call by the bubblefactor 1.2. Now we have to invest 12.3BB to win an adjusted pot of 25BB (30:1.2). Required equity now already 49.2%

I would really appreciate any help, suggestions or hints about my problem, how to calculate the required call equity considering the bubblefactor
Bubblefactor Quote
03-18-2019 , 09:58 AM
These Bubblefactors are not useful for exact calculations.
They are specificly for an "Even Stack Scenario".
They do not take into account dead money, position, different stack sizes. (How could they?)

If you want to do specific CallEV-calculations you need to know ALL stack sizes of the remaining players, and the specific pot size.

Then you can do an ICM calculation:

What is my cEV when I fold?
What is my cEV when I call and (a) win or (b) lose?
Bubblefactor Quote

      
m