Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

MTT Community MTT sweat and official threads as well as various contests and events

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-01-2020, 05:52 PM   #751
bumpnrun
veteran
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: lol imo
Posts: 2,736
Re: biggest mtt downswing?

Ok that makes some sense

Itís not a dig at all. Variance in MTTs interests me a great deal and Iím trying to understand how his graph is possible. Iím well aware baaaf is a great player but that just adds to the mystery
bumpnrun is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2020, 08:19 PM   #752
Colin_Piddle
The Colonial
 
Colin_Piddle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: AlwaysFolding is my gimmick
Posts: 10,876
Re: biggest mtt downswing?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jkpoker10 View Post
Does anyone know how you tell if you are playing bad vs just running bad in regards to a DS? Like is there a way to see my all in equity vs real in pokertracker?

I think i'm playing bad but also running bad in important deep spots at times but standard variance and losing a flip here or there so can't really complain too much. Probably down $9200 over 720 games with an ABI around 30-40 (not sure most of my early tournies were lower buy ins so feel i'm around 30-35 abi over stretch)

Meh I binked like 10.3k after finishing 5th in sunday 215 on acr and then after that, results have been meh. Have made some solid runs in MOSS/OSS tournies but just don't win that big hand late you need to really make a ft. I'll be honest, my mental health is kinda going haywire lately. I've been really down and have felt like I'm playing shitty even though idk if i am per se.

I study, just hired a coach to go over hhs etc and try to improve. I feel like i try to play too many tables which really makes my decision making bad. I only play saturday and sundays and play about 12-15 tables at my peak time which is pretty tough. I don't have time to really look at hands and break them down, i have to make decisions super quick without a ton of thought. I also probably have folded big hands such as JJ,QQ,AA a few times due to timebanking to 0 and not having reserve which is terrible.

I don't want to move down stakes as I feel I cant play a $20 abi and find it exciting. I can't even get enough volume down at that level if i wanted to make the grind worth doing. I'm probably busting my roll online today or soon after and reloading sadly.

The only thing I think is maybe i have to play 8 tables max even though i kinda find that boring. I honestly might just suck. I'll be honest I might be a **** player that does a few things wrong that are massive leaks but idk. I feel in all honesty, I might just be the player that can beat the micro stakes but when i move to say 20-40 abi, i might be missing spots or something and getting run over. Think i spew hard early in mtts and get it in bad with say AK etc in high variance spots but yea hard to say.
Cut down table count, drop abi, if you work fulltime and play on both days of the week consider just playing on sundays to avoid burnout.
Colin_Piddle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2020, 12:16 AM   #753
Jkpoker10
old hand
 
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 1,895
Re: biggest mtt downswing?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Colin_Piddle View Post
Cut down table count, drop abi, if you work fulltime and play on both days of the week consider just playing on sundays to avoid burnout.
Thanks for responding to this. Will probably drop abi a bit but donít think I can play less tables as I need to generate some deep runs and only play 2 days a week.

In regards to how Iím running. Saw from a graph in my database my expected bbs over like 500 mtts is -500bbs however im running at -2000bbs so think that shows how Iím running. Iíve been losing a lot of flips at odd rate lately- sure probably making mistakes but I feel the way my graph looks isnít a result of my overall play. Just an odd downswing with some binks earlier on in 1000mtt sample which is small. Def not playing great but the fact I have no binks over last 350 mtts kinda shows something is up in how Iím running.

I win a 6.60 for 3.3k and just go down on my graph after that (350mtts). Again probably playing shitty in spots but I donít think a few punts will result in the type of graph.
Jkpoker10 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2020, 02:32 AM   #754
bumpnrun
veteran
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: lol imo
Posts: 2,736
biggest mtt downswing?

Kind of confusing ^ ....how many MTTs have you been downswinging for?

Do you play a large amount of turbos and/or hypers?

1000 MTT losing /downswinging runs is nothing. Pretty sure a good player can easily go 5000 MTTs or much more breaking even/slight loser. I went 800 MTTs on a site at -2% ROI mostly non turbos feeling like I was running unbelievably bad and I was convinced it was rigged towards the end and quit. Now I realise it was just standard run bad

If your mental state isnít good you may need to take Colins suggestion of a day off especially if your Monday-Friday gig is reasonably intense

WRT to your self doubt who knows if you are good or not ..neither your early binks or current run bad are conclusive. Just not enough volume
bumpnrun is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2020, 07:50 AM   #755
UltimateGrinder33
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Mia
Posts: 82
Re: biggest mtt downswing?

Volume will deminish ur unlucky streak, i feel as long as you learn from those setbacks you can end that section of your life and continue to crush as for me I've lost my initial deposit of $50 back to back until I deposited $80 just stay consistent + tranquilo take it day by day
UltimateGrinder33 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-27-2020, 07:23 PM   #756
EggsMcBluffin
MTTPIOExpert
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Location: On a Roll
Posts: 1,062
Re: biggest mtt downswing?

For me 200 ABI and counting.

Actually haven't been playing MTTs for too long just for 2 years, and don't have much volume at all in that time because I've so heavily prioritized studying and prepping.

During that time I've only fired ~1000 BIs and did not take long for me to realize just how crap-shooty these things are and just how intense the variance can be. It's impossible to convey in a forum post. I've also had 200 ABI upswings in that short sample, including scooping back-to-back events. Variance works in both directions.

Never felt better about my game than I do right now despite the losses.

I do not use the number of mistakes I perceive myself to be making as a yardstick for how my game is, because after much work in the mental game area (and really just getting some semblance of experience) I no longer feel like having made some mistakes or even downright blunders means I haven't maximized my EV. And I would say that at the beginning of my poker "career" beating myself up over ostensible mistakes was my biggest mental game leak.

Because the entire field is inevitably making mistakes and even blunders and really when you sign up to play these things you're striking a bargain that yes you will **** up sometimes, it's OK because others will too with 100% certainty, and there's a totally random component anyway--isn't sucking out occasionally just part of the bargain?

Time being limited I tend to only study losing hands (not to imply all winning hands I play perfectly), so confidence aside I actually sometimes I think I build up a much, much worse-looking picture in my mind of the state of my game compared to reality.

So for me just continuing to bring a certain level of intensity to competition when I do play, having a continued intense level of focus and desire to study --these are things I'm focusing on.

It's a shame on you if you think you have this grand locus of control over your results even over a sample of several thousand BIs.
EggsMcBluffin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-28-2020, 01:53 AM   #757
PaulyJames200x
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Posts: 3,246
Re: biggest mtt downswing?

Okay so what is the number now since the thread has been posted? I mean 500 buyin downswings are still common right but once its over 500... thats when its no longer a downswing? Many seem to say 300 buyin downswings are very common.



Now im sure there are tons of good players throughout the years who had multiple 300 buyin downswings and 500 right? Now what about like 1000 buyin downswings? Example wouldn't there be tons of regs who have a 20 dollar avg buyin and many 6k downswings? And some 10k as well if they played a lot of years etc? Someone did say its hard to get much downswings if you play a nonvariance style. But what exactly do they mean low variance? Basically tag and not much making moves?
PaulyJames200x is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2020, 06:49 PM   #758
EggsMcBluffin
MTTPIOExpert
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Location: On a Roll
Posts: 1,062
Re: biggest mtt downswing?

Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulyJames200x View Post
Okay so what is the number now since the thread has been posted? I mean 500 buyin downswings are still common right but once its over 500... thats when its no longer a downswing? Many seem to say 300 buyin downswings are very common.



Now im sure there are tons of good players throughout the years who had multiple 300 buyin downswings and 500 right? Now what about like 1000 buyin downswings? Example wouldn't there be tons of regs who have a 20 dollar avg buyin and many 6k downswings? And some 10k as well if they played a lot of years etc? Someone did say its hard to get much downswings if you play a nonvariance style. But what exactly do they mean low variance? Basically tag and not much making moves?
Your question has no answer, there's no number N such that you'd expect a "good player" to never experience a "downswing" at least as large as N buy-ins. There should be absolutely no reason to think that even the truly elite players are immune from losing their asses off over an extended period. You have 0% control over whether or not you win, you merely control whether on not you maximize your EV.

And the notion of "nonvariance" anything is just silly.
EggsMcBluffin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-30-2020, 12:29 AM   #759
Jkpoker10
old hand
 
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 1,895
Re: biggest mtt downswing?

Quote:
Originally Posted by EggsMcBluffin View Post
Your question has no answer, there's no number N such that you'd expect a "good player" to never experience a "downswing" at least as large as N buy-ins. There should be absolutely no reason to think that even the truly elite players are immune from losing their asses off over an extended period. You have 0% control over whether or not you win, you merely control whether on not you maximize your EV.

And the notion of "nonvariance" anything is just silly.

Yo eggs, I think you were at my table this past sunday (march 22) in the $215 on ACR. I had an awkard spot against you where i flopped a set on 567 and you called a cbet i believe and folded turn.

As to your post, I think all you can do is study and make sure you aren't making blatant mistakes. You seem to put the work in from what you post on these forums so I would continue the grind. I would say try to get in some live mtts as they are softer and seem to be easier than online however putting in lots of volume is tough.

BTW, I can relate heavily to your post. I'm currently like going through a 300-400 buy in downswing where looking at my graph makes me want to puke bc its straight down. I find it odd when people put in less volume than me however they have a graph going up at higher stakes and idk if they even study per se. I'm not saying i'm some boss or play perfect but i find it odd that i've run really poorly in big spots on ACR lately and it just bothers me. I'm honestly going to take 2-3 months off possibly and just play if they have a big series.

For example- I played $215 this past sunday which is above my standard buy in and made a deep run (finish 31 i think which is lolshit). I lose 77 vs 33 late in a Button jam spot against my bb for 48bb pot and then lose QQ v 10-10 after it goes open/TT flats, I make it 8.3bb and TT backjams and obv binks a T against me. I love poker but stuff like this crushes my soul and makes me want to quit the game. I win both of these pots and i have 7mill out of 66mill and can steamroll to a finaltable. I lose both which should happen maybe 3-4% of time and bust the tourny. The sheer luck involved in mtts just bothers me. I look at my graphs on PT4 and i'm mainly running under expected results in ALL in spots. I just wonder what these crushers that have beautiful graphs are doing and i'm not doing. Whats the secret to running good.

today i make a deep run in an $88 and jam KJ on a k97 flop and get called by qq and he makes some odd flush on river. I just wonder how people handle the variance. I can't.

I played the $630 today as a way to punt the majority of my bankroll on ACR. I made day 2 with short stack and currently 353/ 366 with 360 getting 1k mincash and 182k up top. Prolly my last online tournament for a while.
Jkpoker10 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2020, 06:25 PM   #760
LtUaE42
centurion
 
LtUaE42's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Cali
Posts: 168
Re: biggest mtt downswing?

This thread has been reassuring to read. Non-stop bad bets breed paranoia and self doubt.
LtUaE42 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-18-2020, 11:25 AM   #761
Chadox78
stranger
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Chesapeake, Va
Posts: 12
Re: biggest mtt downswing?

-$2K slowly off 3.5k peak profit started since November. Abi$11. Can't seem to find deep runs anymore.


Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
Chadox78 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-05-2020, 07:29 AM   #762
Top Pig
grinder
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 658
Re: biggest mtt downswing?

What about biggest upswing? Fedor 2k games lifetime, still in nappies flops 35 boats per FT, **** at poker. just sickening
Top Pig is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2020, 12:59 PM   #763
LiveMTTDegen
banned
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
Location: Australia
Posts: 515
Re: biggest mtt downswing?

Quote:
but stuff like this crushes my soul and makes me want to quit the game
Quote:
I just wonder what these crushers that have beautiful graphs are doing
I guarantee crushers are not thinking like this.

Quote:
I really believe that this is one of the most underated things that people don't work on: Being better losers. Really constantly understanding that losing is just part of the game. I think really dealing with losing all the time is one of the key things in poker. Fedor Holz
Sums it up pretty well.
LiveMTTDegen is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2020, 02:50 PM   #764
getmeoffcompletely
old hand
 
getmeoffcompletely's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 1,494
Re: biggest mtt downswing?

Fedor giving advice about how to deal with loss is like a wall street CEO telling some guy working minimum wage in a dead end job that he just has to work harder and he will soon make it.

Give me a ****ing break. Nothing worse than a preachy luckbox.
getmeoffcompletely is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2020, 01:44 PM   #765
takeitAll
enthusiast
 
takeitAll's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 84
Re: biggest mtt downswing?

Quote:
Originally Posted by getmeoffcompletely View Post
Fedor giving advice about how to deal with loss is like a wall street CEO telling some guy working minimum wage in a dead end job that he just has to work harder and he will soon make it.

Give me a ****ing break. Nothing worse than a preachy luckbox.
^^
takeitAll is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2020, 05:32 AM   #766
braudablowup
old hand
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Appstonsome
Posts: 1,822
Re: biggest mtt downswing?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Top Pig View Post
What about biggest upswing? Fedor 2k games lifetime, still in nappies flops 35 boats per FT, **** at poker. just sickening
Wow Just looked this up. Insane.
braudablowup is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:20 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online