Didn't say that did I ? But if a player has +20% roi on 3 sites and -20% roi on a 4th site he tends to think his true roi is 20% and he runs bad on 4th site . Rather than believing his true roi is +10%

Interesting point. I was in that camp for a while, thinking my ROI is at 30%, when it was actually only 17%, with bigger sites being my "bad sites" due to field sizes.

Out of DS by 500th MTT. About 350th MTTs into the swing I turned of my HUD, and cut the tables from 16 to 5 on screen,and stuck with it for about 150 MTTs.I plugged a lot of leaks that I developed over time this way.

If you are only playing 5 tournaments, what is your average buyin then? Also if you 5 table, how many tournaments are you even getting in per session? And what would be your total buyins? If someone wants to play less tables... could someone play like 22-33 dollar tournaments and 6 table them only? The issue is your volume would be so low. Its like you would need some huge roi in order for that to work out.


To those players that play mostly mid stakes mtt, how many tables do you even play at once? Too little, you get not enough volume... too much and your roi is lower. And if you are playing 5 tourneys, if you bust out of 2 of them, do you just reg 2 new ones etc? I cant imagine someone 2-3 tabling tournaments even if its midstakes especially if its early on etc. I can understand if it gets deeper etc.

Sorry but not winning for 500 mtts is not a ds lol

why?

because it is to be expected within a reasonable certainty

^Indeed, if you are playing large fields the probability of loss may even be >50% over a sample of 500 even if you're EV is +20%.

about 2k online

lel

Down about 50 buyins at present. Running flippin awful.

What happened to asjbaaf?

I got told at the live tables last night he lost about 70k across 30k games at a $22 abi before quitting. As a former crusher that’s a serious downswing

Saw his name in $11 deep stacks winter series event today!

Good to hear he wasnt totally broken by it

I looked at his scope. At what point does the term “downswing” became a tad optimistic?

I just looked now too, you are right. Looks a bit off ...like something went wrong for him on a personal level and he started playing bad .

OR.... It’s just horrendous runbad. OR...he was just a huge sun runner early. Who knows ...luck factor in MTTs is spoooky weird

I dont think that this is a downswing. He started having worse results since 2015.
A lot of previous regs started playing break even or even started to lose since 2015 for multiple reasons.
The main reason is probably because of Twitch which started in 2015 and even a bad playersstarted to improve their game because of streams from better players. This increased the skill level of the average player on pokersites.

Another reason are solvers which also came out around 2015, which is probably the reason why he isnt able to beat higher stakes anymore.

Then 2015 Stars implemented a lot of Bounty Builder tournaments and removed a lot of rebuy tournaments at the same time. Rebuy tournaments also were tracked completely wrong on sharkscope, you basically had more winnings than you actually had.

Another reason is the increased rake which also started ~2015-2016.

So yea its very likely not a downswing. Its a lot more likely that he like a lot of other old school regs failed to adapt and improve/change his gameplan.

Don't have a clue who this guy is but he use to be a very solid player? Thats 3500 buyins... do you know how long that lasted for? People in this thread said like 500 buyins or 1000 buyins is probably the absolute max for downswings but is this guy a rare exception? If others say he is a solid player, how does that happen?



Also when people mention some ppl play high variance vs low variance style, what exactly is meant by that?


Also when players go on downswings, do they check their EV bb/100 to confirm they are on a downswing? So basically if someone's EV bb/100 is 10 or more, they are a crusher right? But its very possible to have a ev bb/100 of 10 or more and be losing over a huge sample... say 5k mtt if they run ver below EV? But how does this compare to the BB/100? So its possible for someone to be losing over a long sample with 12bb ev/100 and around 9bb/100 for instance? The thing is i know its been said the more you play, the closer the ev bb/100 and bb/100 should be. But has anyone seen a huge discrepancy like playing 5k mtt or 10k mtt or more and having it being off buy a few bb? Like 12 ev bb/100 and 7 bb/100?

That's interesting. I cashed out, paid off family debt, bought a house and went back to school. I'm in my last year of my BSc and really enjoying academia. I didn't really have a major downswing, I lost some chasing SNE the last year it was available (before it was announced that it was getting cancelled), but rakeback largely covered that.

But what about the graph that someone spoke about though?

they probably searched me at 0% rakeback (red line) which has a peak of 435k and an end point of 365k (70k difference). at supernova rakeback rates (green line) the peak is at 500k with an end point of 490k (10k difference).

lol boss

Congratulations on your academic and financial achievements, and thanks for popping in to clarify. But this thread is about downswings

You are right looks like some including my original source were using the non rake back graph.

So looking at the graph you provided.....you won $500,000 in your first 60,000 MTTs.

Then when playing another 40,000 MTTs.... you lost $10,000. Is that correct?

Does anyone know how you tell if you are playing bad vs just running bad in regards to a DS? Like is there a way to see my all in equity vs real in pokertracker?

I think i'm playing bad but also running bad in important deep spots at times but standard variance and losing a flip here or there so can't really complain too much. Probably down $9200 over 720 games with an ABI around 30-40 (not sure most of my early tournies were lower buy ins so feel i'm around 30-35 abi over stretch)

Meh I binked like 10.3k after finishing 5th in sunday 215 on acr and then after that, results have been meh. Have made some solid runs in MOSS/OSS tournies but just don't win that big hand late you need to really make a ft. I'll be honest, my mental health is kinda going haywire lately. I've been really down and have felt like I'm playing shitty even though idk if i am per se.

I study, just hired a coach to go over hhs etc and try to improve. I feel like i try to play too many tables which really makes my decision making bad. I only play saturday and sundays and play about 12-15 tables at my peak time which is pretty tough. I don't have time to really look at hands and break them down, i have to make decisions super quick without a ton of thought. I also probably have folded big hands such as JJ,QQ,AA a few times due to timebanking to 0 and not having reserve which is terrible.

I don't want to move down stakes as I feel I cant play a $20 abi and find it exciting. I can't even get enough volume down at that level if i wanted to make the grind worth doing. I'm probably busting my roll online today or soon after and reloading sadly.

The only thing I think is maybe i have to play 8 tables max even though i kinda find that boring. I honestly might just suck. I'll be honest I might be a **** player that does a few things wrong that are massive leaks but idk. I feel in all honesty, I might just be the player that can beat the micro stakes but when i move to say 20-40 abi, i might be missing spots or something and getting run over. Think i spew hard early in mtts and get it in bad with say AK etc in high variance spots but yea hard to say.

He was going for supernova elite so i seriously doubt those last 40000 games were all mtts. More likely alot of them were hyper sngs which last 5-10 minutes on average so your petty little dig of breaking even for 40000 mtts isn't even accurate. Lets see your losing graph and pick through it with a fine tooth comb.