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biggest mtt downswing? biggest mtt downswing?

10-20-2012 , 08:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rh300487
3 50k swings so far this year..
you should definitely watch some training videos or seek gambling help, that cant be variance
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10-21-2012 , 02:59 PM
uh....its not like his average buy in is 55$ tho is it? pretty easy to go thru 50k if ur playing super tuesday every week and u have 5k + buy ins on sunday. if u go thru 500 buy ins playing 55$ and under i really dont know what to say. gl today everyone.
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10-21-2012 , 04:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by marek_heinz
you should definitely watch some training videos or seek gambling help, that cant be variance
Ty, called to them. will check in on monday. first sunday grind though..
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10-21-2012 , 06:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FoNZ87
uh....its not like his average buy in is 55$ tho is it? pretty easy to go thru 50k if ur playing super tuesday every week and u have 5k + buy ins on sunday. if u go thru 500 buy ins playing 55$ and under i really dont know what to say. gl today everyone.
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10-21-2012 , 07:55 PM
that's just a concealed three 50k+ upswings this year
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10-21-2012 , 10:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rh300487
Ty, called to them. will check in on monday. first sunday grind though..
According to SharkScope, your ROI for the year is only 18% and yet your largest downswing was only ~300 buyins, with 10k+ games played.

I still stand by my assertion that anyone who's experiencing a downswing of 500+ buyins has a tiny edge at best in their games. Obviously it's possible for a 20% ROI player to have a 500 buyin downer, but as we get into the 750-1k buyin territory, then it is decidedly not variance.

Last edited by TT_fold; 10-21-2012 at 10:03 PM. Reason: Sorry Protential, maybe you just aren't any good
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10-21-2012 , 10:11 PM
I dont think you entirely grasp variance as mtts winrates are based on late game stages. How often do you get there, exactly not that much...

If people can get downswings up to 200 buyins easily in sngs, about everything is possible in mtts in about every sample while still being the best in the game. Probabilities are higher for you to suck, have lower winrates etc but the statements u make about 750 buyins etc are just not true IMO.
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10-21-2012 , 10:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mecastyles
I dont think you entirely grasp variance as mtts winrates are based on late game stages. How often do you get there, exactly not that much...

If people can get downswings up to 200 buyins easily in sngs, about everything is possible in mtts in about every sample while still being the best in the game. Probabilities are higher for you to suck, have lower winrates etc but the statements u make about 750 buyins etc are just not true IMO.
i think ricky is saying that if you game select properly you shouldn't see those kind of downswings. Since more than 1/2 of stars' mtts are turbos and every reg, myself included, just auto-reg them all, these downswings are becoming more common when they dont have to be.
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10-21-2012 , 10:46 PM
i've found that playing a few more value tourneys with good structures and smaller fields, not playing more tables than i can handle and never punting has helped reduce my variance.
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10-21-2012 , 11:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TT_fold
According to SharkScope, your ROI for the year is only 18% and yet your largest downswing was only ~300 buyins, with 10k+ games played.

I still stand by my assertion that anyone who's experiencing a downswing of 500+ buyins has a tiny edge at best in their games. Obviously it's possible for a 20% ROI player to have a 500 buyin downer, but as we get into the 750-1k buyin territory, then it is decidedly not variance.
U think im protential?..

i was wrong with my 3 50k swings thought. just went through my books and saw some -50k makeup 3 times but thats because of some loans etc.

in fact, this year i had -25k, -25k and just came out a -40K downer (moreless..).



However, to say it's not standard is pretty meghh... I think 50K swings are pretty stndrd when u play daily 100r's 200t's 320 6m and all major mtt's including all WCOOP/SCOOP/Super Tuesday's etc.. Play them so often and just mincashing isnt good enough. And regardless how good you are, shipping any of these MTTs takes luck.

This year i had 1 cash so far in super tuesday. 15 or 16 final two tabs of 50K+ scores and 2 of them where 100K and 250K first. Biggest score this year so far is 15K.

without hitting the occasional big score it's hard to get big year's and big score's boost your ROI like crazy.

Last edited by rh300487; 10-21-2012 at 11:10 PM.
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10-21-2012 , 11:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sirswish6
i think ricky is saying that if you game select properly you shouldn't see those kind of downswings. Since more than 1/2 of stars' mtts are turbos and every reg, myself included, just auto-reg them all, these downswings are becoming more common when they dont have to be.
Agreed, selecting your games will decrease variance/swings but also your $EV imo. Playing more tables then u are capable of playing does hurt your $EV a lot though.

Hardest thing I find in poker is game selection and the # of tables im willing to play. esp with FTP coming back now. There will be so many good mtt's. high value midstake and big high stake mtts...

Last edited by rh300487; 10-21-2012 at 11:12 PM.
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10-22-2012 , 07:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rh300487
Agreed, selecting your games will decrease variance/swings but also your $EV imo. Playing more tables then u are capable of playing does hurt your $EV a lot though.

Hardest thing I find in poker is game selection and the # of tables im willing to play. esp with FTP coming back now. There will be so many good mtt's. high value midstake and big high stake mtts...
Are you gonna play FTP? Not going for TLB totally? What sites are you playing now?
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10-22-2012 , 10:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TT_fold
According to SharkScope, your ROI for the year is only 18% and yet your largest downswing was only ~300 buyins, with 10k+ games played.

I still stand by my assertion that anyone who's experiencing a downswing of 500+ buyins has a tiny edge at best in their games. Obviously it's possible for a 20% ROI player to have a 500 buyin downer, but as we get into the 750-1k buyin territory, then it is decidedly not variance.
WCOOP tho.
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10-22-2012 , 10:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Twistedd
Are you gonna play FTP? Not going for TLB totally? What sites are you playing now?
I never really had my eye on TLB until June/July. I had a good first week and saw I was on top for the monthly and it was cool challenge try and win it + I'm backed and the bonus would be for me so the 5K was a nice extra if I would win it.

To grind fully for TLB is to boring so the only adjustment I do now is play all the small BIGs and play some big field turbo mtts when i just start my session. Hoping to win some big's and do good on TLB.

FTP will have some awesome mtt's. Can't miss out on them for sure. I'll just add extra tables and go from there, see how it goes/what i can handle.
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10-22-2012 , 10:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TT_fold
According to SharkScope, your ROI for the year is only 18% and yet your largest downswing was only ~300 buyins, with 10k+ games played.

I still stand by my assertion that anyone who's experiencing a downswing of 500+ buyins has a tiny edge at best in their games. Obviously it's possible for a 20% ROI player to have a 500 buyin downer, but as we get into the 750-1k buyin territory, then it is decidedly not variance.
Maratik has a Total ROI: 1,224%
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10-22-2012 , 12:18 PM
To be fair Ricky you do a lot of stuff to ensure that you never go on big downswings, I agree that huge downswings at small/midstakes mostly just means that you probably aren't that great but its easy at highstakes given how much of most peoples schedules are made up of turbos compared to a year or two ago.
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10-22-2012 , 03:03 PM
what are you gonna do with all that money rh
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10-22-2012 , 04:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fanov
what are you gonna do with all that money rh
haha, not sure if serious but ill bite. Im not a baller like lots of people on this forum (althout this might be a perspective as well)..

started a company last year, outside of poker and invested money in there and borrowed from several (poker) friends. I have to reimburse them first so for now i'm not seeing anything of it besides living a decent life. Eating good etc.

Also im backed so only keep 50% of the profits and profit has gone to paying people and bonusses for living costs (VPPs, TLB etc.).

Hope something big comes soon. meantime we play the daily grind and hope to preform good enough to grind midstakes somewhere next year on my own roll and have a decent buffer on the side.

WP if u leveled me , but try to give an honest answer. Especially since most people assume so many HS player have baller lives and all the money in the world to spend. More often then not it's the contrary.
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10-22-2012 , 04:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rh300487
I never really had my eye on TLB until June/July. I had a good first week and saw I was on top for the monthly and it was cool challenge try and win it + I'm backed and the bonus would be for me so the 5K was a nice extra if I would win it.

To grind fully for TLB is to boring so the only adjustment I do now is play all the small BIGs and play some big field turbo mtts when i just start my session. Hoping to win some big's and do good on TLB.

FTP will have some awesome mtt's. Can't miss out on them for sure. I'll just add extra tables and go from there, see how it goes/what i can handle.
Are you playing other sites now or only making an exception for ftp?
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10-22-2012 , 04:59 PM
no i play some good mtts on other networks as well. But only play selective good mtts there.
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10-22-2012 , 05:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by marek_heinz
you should definitely watch some training videos or seek gambling help, that cant be variance
I'd rate rh3(numbers) as one of the best regs around today in terms of his mindset. He's never come across as a gambler/degen to me.
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10-22-2012 , 07:15 PM
well playing 12k mtts in a year with biggest score 15k,playing all the majors high stakes and profiting something in the 130-150k range is impressive.
it shows that maybe even if he hasnt a big edge in highstakes is very good in midstakes (or maybe he just ran bad in the big ones)
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10-22-2012 , 07:42 PM
i think 400-500 bi downswings at midstakes today is alot more possible than 2-3 years ago. stars made just about every new mtt a turbo, and id think probably 40% of the 10-50$ buyin range is turbos
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10-28-2012 , 03:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ISmellToast
wow apparently i suck

This

Then again I knew that already
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10-28-2012 , 04:30 AM
Nice bash when I'm saying it about myself.
Lols.

Don't really know how you can ever fail to understand my post, but I hope I just got trolled big time.

Other than that I just felt like snowboarding last month.
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