Ok that makes some sense

It’s not a dig at all. Variance in MTTs interests me a great deal and I’m trying to understand how his graph is possible. I’m well aware baaaf is a great player but that just adds to the mystery

Cut down table count, drop abi, if you work fulltime and play on both days of the week consider just playing on sundays to avoid burnout.

Thanks for responding to this. Will probably drop abi a bit but don’t think I can play less tables as I need to generate some deep runs and only play 2 days a week.

In regards to how I’m running. Saw from a graph in my database my expected bbs over like 500 mtts is -500bbs however im running at -2000bbs so think that shows how I’m running. I’ve been losing a lot of flips at odd rate lately- sure probably making mistakes but I feel the way my graph looks isn’t a result of my overall play. Just an odd downswing with some binks earlier on in 1000mtt sample which is small. Def not playing great but the fact I have no binks over last 350 mtts kinda shows something is up in how I’m running.

I win a 6.60 for 3.3k and just go down on my graph after that (350mtts). Again probably playing shitty in spots but I don’t think a few punts will result in the type of graph.

Kind of confusing ^ ....how many MTTs have you been downswinging for?

Do you play a large amount of turbos and/or hypers?

1000 MTT losing /downswinging runs is nothing. Pretty sure a good player can easily go 5000 MTTs or much more breaking even/slight loser. I went 800 MTTs on a site at -2% ROI mostly non turbos feeling like I was running unbelievably bad and I was convinced it was rigged towards the end and quit. Now I realise it was just standard run bad

If your mental state isn’t good you may need to take Colins suggestion of a day off especially if your Monday-Friday gig is reasonably intense

WRT to your self doubt who knows if you are good or not ..neither your early binks or current run bad are conclusive. Just not enough volume

Volume will deminish ur unlucky streak, i feel as long as you learn from those setbacks you can end that section of your life and continue to crush as for me I've lost my initial deposit of $50 back to back until I deposited $80 just stay consistent + tranquilo take it day by day

For me 200 ABI and counting.

Actually haven't been playing MTTs for too long just for 2 years, and don't have much volume at all in that time because I've so heavily prioritized studying and prepping.

During that time I've only fired ~1000 BIs and did not take long for me to realize just how crap-shooty these things are and just how intense the variance can be. It's impossible to convey in a forum post. I've also had 200 ABI upswings in that short sample, including scooping back-to-back events. Variance works in both directions.

Never felt better about my game than I do right now despite the losses.

I do not use the number of mistakes I perceive myself to be making as a yardstick for how my game is, because after much work in the mental game area (and really just getting some semblance of experience) I no longer feel like having made some mistakes or even downright blunders means I haven't maximized my EV. And I would say that at the beginning of my poker "career" beating myself up over ostensible mistakes was my biggest mental game leak.

Because the entire field is inevitably making mistakes and even blunders and really when you sign up to play these things you're striking a bargain that yes you will **** up sometimes, it's OK because others will too with 100% certainty, and there's a totally random component anyway--isn't sucking out occasionally just part of the bargain?

Time being limited I tend to only study losing hands (not to imply all winning hands I play perfectly), so confidence aside I actually sometimes I think I build up a much, much worse-looking picture in my mind of the state of my game compared to reality.

So for me just continuing to bring a certain level of intensity to competition when I do play, having a continued intense level of focus and desire to study --these are things I'm focusing on.

It's a shame on you if you think you have this grand locus of control over your results even over a sample of several thousand BIs.

Okay so what is the number now since the thread has been posted? I mean 500 buyin downswings are still common right but once its over 500... thats when its no longer a downswing? Many seem to say 300 buyin downswings are very common.



Now im sure there are tons of good players throughout the years who had multiple 300 buyin downswings and 500 right? Now what about like 1000 buyin downswings? Example wouldn't there be tons of regs who have a 20 dollar avg buyin and many 6k downswings? And some 10k as well if they played a lot of years etc? Someone did say its hard to get much downswings if you play a nonvariance style. But what exactly do they mean low variance? Basically tag and not much making moves?

Your question has no answer, there's no number N such that you'd expect a "good player" to never experience a "downswing" at least as large as N buy-ins. There should be absolutely no reason to think that even the truly elite players are immune from losing their asses off over an extended period. You have 0% control over whether or not you win, you merely control whether on not you maximize your EV.

And the notion of "nonvariance" anything is just silly.

Yo eggs, I think you were at my table this past sunday (march 22) in the $215 on ACR. I had an awkard spot against you where i flopped a set on 567 and you called a cbet i believe and folded turn.

As to your post, I think all you can do is study and make sure you aren't making blatant mistakes. You seem to put the work in from what you post on these forums so I would continue the grind. I would say try to get in some live mtts as they are softer and seem to be easier than online however putting in lots of volume is tough.

BTW, I can relate heavily to your post. I'm currently like going through a 300-400 buy in downswing where looking at my graph makes me want to puke bc its straight down. I find it odd when people put in less volume than me however they have a graph going up at higher stakes and idk if they even study per se. I'm not saying i'm some boss or play perfect but i find it odd that i've run really poorly in big spots on ACR lately and it just bothers me. I'm honestly going to take 2-3 months off possibly and just play if they have a big series.

For example- I played $215 this past sunday which is above my standard buy in and made a deep run (finish 31 i think which is lolshit). I lose 77 vs 33 late in a Button jam spot against my bb for 48bb pot and then lose QQ v 10-10 after it goes open/TT flats, I make it 8.3bb and TT backjams and obv binks a T against me. I love poker but stuff like this crushes my soul and makes me want to quit the game. I win both of these pots and i have 7mill out of 66mill and can steamroll to a finaltable. I lose both which should happen maybe 3-4% of time and bust the tourny. The sheer luck involved in mtts just bothers me. I look at my graphs on PT4 and i'm mainly running under expected results in ALL in spots. I just wonder what these crushers that have beautiful graphs are doing and i'm not doing. Whats the secret to running good.

today i make a deep run in an $88 and jam KJ on a k97 flop and get called by qq and he makes some odd flush on river. I just wonder how people handle the variance. I can't.

I played the $630 today as a way to punt the majority of my bankroll on ACR. I made day 2 with short stack and currently 353/ 366 with 360 getting 1k mincash and 182k up top. Prolly my last online tournament for a while.

This thread has been reassuring to read. Non-stop bad bets breed paranoia and self doubt.

-$2K slowly off 3.5k peak profit started since November. Abi$11. Can't seem to find deep runs anymore.


Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

What about biggest upswing? Fedor 2k games lifetime, still in nappies flops 35 boats per FT, **** at poker. just sickening

I guarantee crushers are not thinking like this.

Sums it up pretty well.

Fedor giving advice about how to deal with loss is like a wall street CEO telling some guy working minimum wage in a dead end job that he just has to work harder and he will soon make it.

Give me a ****ing break. Nothing worse than a preachy luckbox.

^^

Wow Just looked this up. Insane.

Downswings will happen if you want to beat downswings you need to grind 15k-20k mtts/year... study 30 hours/month. You will in the end win.

source:bigbeez acr sharkscope.

no volume since jan 1. call it quits? pretty nasty ups and downs in there