around ~30k$... but that wasn't just variance. My play sucked as well.

It's always variance, don't be harsh on yourself.

Yeah. I guess you guys have a point.

44k at 60ABI.
2152 games, 1755 average field size.

Assuming 20% roi at these limits http://pokerdope.com/tournament-variance-calculator/ suggests this run should only happen around 0.5% of the time.

Being pretty soul destroying

Maybe (probably) your true ROI is lower.

Its certainly possible, but my results in the preceding years suggest otherwise.

5-20$ buyins
65% ROI 2011 at 108 games
12% ROI 2012 at 371 games
-37% 2013 at 329 games
59% 2014 at 277 games

20-60$ buyins

67% 2012 406 games
32% 2013 843 games
-15% 2015 787 games

6-200$ buyins

70% 2013 484 games
-32% 2014 474 games

I dont play much games bigger than this [only 114 this year for example so no sample].

Maybe i missread these stats but these would suggest 20% roi is on the lower end of what i can expect at $60 ABI? I could use some suggestions as to whats standard here.

Even if we were to say i was a breakeven player - Such a run should only happen 5% of the time.

And if i was a -20% roi player [which im clearly not] such a run will still only happen 30% of the time.

Either way, i think its pretty gross, and it has being a horrible year

Edit, my roi data is from http://www.officialpokerrankings.com...C8AA3.html?t=2

Those are some great sample sizes.

Way to not read what I posted, and miss the point.

Top stuff champ

Great sample sizes

Also, totally missed the point.

Tough luck this year bro, I feel you

40something k, on 3 occasions

Not too bad considering i've been playing MTTs for a living @ ABI 85ish for several years

I field select and play a pretty low variance style though, if I regged everything super tues/100rs/etc I wouldn't be surprised if I had a 75k+ ds

As it stands i'd only expect a 60k+ downswing maybe once every 5-6 years in the current games I play and maybe even less often

Overall my graph is very pretty and not that swingy compared to similar calibre regs

Here is my biggest downswing, or biggest down, since I am not out of it:

Stats from Sharkscope:

Since 1 december 2013 I have played 6642 tournaments and I am down -$37 758
Avg buy in: 53.53
ITM: 21.2%
Avg players: 2217
Total ROI: -10%
Avg field beaten: 53.6%

Most of my downswing is doing very poor in big fields tournaments.
During my downswing I have played 2850 tournaments with under 1000 players.
In these game I am up $20 353

Avg buy in: $72.03
ITM: 22.9%
Avg players: 489
Total ROI: 9.4%
Avg field beaten: 53.1%

If I sort tournaments with less than 360 players my total ROI is 16.5%.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Before this I had played 15521 tournaments and was up $281.284.
Avg buy in: $63.1
ITM: 16.6$
Avg players: 1655
Total ROI: 27.1%
Avg field beaten: 53.8%

-------------------------------------------------------------


Some "Fun" stats since the start of my downswing from HM2:

Overall:

Total Hands: 506877
bb/100: 3.62
EV bb/100: 3.68

All blind levels in buy in range $1-$20:

Total Hands: 178 073
bb/100: 5.12
EV bb/100: 4.95

All blind levels in buy in range $21-$100:

Total Hands: 241 617
bb/100: 3.78
EV bb/100: 3.64

All blind levels in buy in range $100-

Total Hands: 87613
bb/100: 0.42
EV bb/100: 1.36


-------------------------------------------------------------------

Big blind in range 10-499, buy in range $1-$20:

Total Hands: 127 559
bb/100: 7.01
EV bb/100: 6.30

Big blind in range 500-4999, buy in range $1-$20:

Total Hands: 43123
bb/100: -0.48
EV bb/100: 1.23

Big blind over 4999, buy in range $1-$20:

Total Hands: 7 409
bb/100: 5.40
EV bb/100: 3.46

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Big blind in range 10-499, buy in range $21-$100:

Total hands: 192 495
bb/100: 3.78
EV bb/100: 4.00

Big blind in range 500-4999, buy in range $21-100:

Total Hands: 43 272
bb/100: 4.77
EV bb/100: 1.88

Big blind over 4999, buy in range $21-100:

Total Hands: 5 855
bb/100: -3.45
EV bb/100: 4.95

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Big blind in range 10-499, buy in over $100:

Total Hands: 70 702
bb/100: 2.12
EV bb/100: 1.82

Big blind in range 500-4999, buy in over $100:

Total Hands: 15 072
bb/100: -5.69
EV bb/100: 0.27

Big blind over 4999, buy in over $100:

Total Hands: 1 269
bb/100: -18.86
EV bb/100: -11.23

----------------------------------------------------------------------
As you can see I am running good in small stakes and in early stages. But bad in high stakes and late stages
I think this explains some of my high itm% but negative ROI. But some of it is probobly beeing to tigth close to the bubble and is part of my adjustments.

I have almost no really big cashes during this period but alot of top 50 places in big tournaments.


Based on my stats and history, what would you guess my total EV ROI is?

I am guessing about 10%?

If so I should only be running this bad around 7% of the time.
If was running in the top 7% I would be up around $122 000

I have been working alot on my game the last months and is different and alot better than in the start of the downswing.

Any comments or suggestions how I can turn this around?

How big chunk of your 280k profit came from individual scores? You are probably decent but may have some rather large leaks.

Your bb/100 analysis I'm not sure if I quite get, the sample from late stages is rather small. In your shoes I'd analyse bb/100 per your stack depth, maybe you're misplaying certain stacksizes, try checking i.e. 0-12xbb, 12-20xbb, 20-28xbb, 28-40xbb and 40+

I think you d do yourself a huge favor by taking a week or so off and looking at your game as a whole. Your bb/100 esp at the early stages imply that your approach is rather weaktight and as such in tougher lineups you will get run over. I suspect you bleed a lot of money from the blinds (by a lot I mean more than neccessary) as well as in general late position scenarios. Maybe get a coach and try plus some of those leaks and resume grinding a but lower.

Not saying this out if disrespect (I have no way of knowing you) just from assumptions from your post. At the stakes you play you really shouldn't ever have a swing like that if you play well

Gl

I had a pretty steady graph before this downswing with 12 cashes over 10K, the biggest being 50K, and without the top 12 cashes I would still be a winner.

I have checked different stacksizes and found being break even in the 22-35bb range and "big" winner over and under that range. This has been one of the things I have been working on lately.

That way of breaking it down was just to show how much of the results comes from so few hands. And maybe get reponses on others ev bb/100 from a sample size with a winning ROI.

I have made a samplesize combining my top contestants hands in my database and comparing both style of play and winrate bb/100 to mine (only finding minor differences in play that I am looking into).

But that migth be a bit off since the samplesize is even smaller and I dont know their ROI.

If I doubled my bb/100 evenly overall, closer to the result of the top regs, how much would that change my EV ROI? And how much does it take to be break even, including the rake?

I have been doing that lately and my results are improving, so this is good advice.

When comparing my stats to my opponent I am doing alrigth from the blind, but could do better in late possition. And I am getting to showdown to often, wich fits with being to weaktigth.

Any suggestions where I could find an affordable coach that is known for beating the games I am playing?

Had a subscription to Tournamentpokeredge, but after sharkscoping them it looked like there result was not much better than mine and most of them have been losing the last year.

I subbed runitonce this month and I can highly recommend it, with your abi being large enough I don't think you should see a problem with spending $100 on them (you can do that even for a month trying to learn as much as possible). Coach market I believe is not what it used to be, it's a bit harder to find good and affordable coach. I miss days where I got coaching from someone like AJK for $200/hr...

Both impossible to say for sure because the shallower stackdepths are more important and then there's ICM which is important but not shown by bb/100.

It takes ~5bb/100 to be a winning player. Any improvement in that leads to an exponentially better ev. It's very tough to get a good enough sample to analyse this stuff, but I think most 50% ROI regs are at ~15bb/100.

I ve been getting 9ish bb/100 across what must be 1.5mil hands since I started MTTs. Friend if mine who grinds bowls on party without ever downswinging has 10-11bb/100.

Winrate itself is wayyyy less than the full picture.

bb/100 isn't directly related to winrate because different tournaments would yield different results.

Take

a) a 150 player fast mtt
b) 15000 player bigger 11

If you win 10bb/100, you'll end up being able to win more chips in B due to having more hands per entry and thus the same winrate will result is fairly different ROIs.

also, 10bb/100 or higher over some sample 50k+ is killing it.

hmmm its not so simple. Could easily take 5bb/100 and have an average winner.

lol^

lollll

bb/100 is absolutely the best overall indicator of quality of play. You can't have 10bb/100 and be a losing player. And you can't have 2bb/100 and be a crusher.

I am not too sure if it is sensible to use bb/100 as some sort of play quality mark without many more conditions applied.

There is a relationship and perhaps a quite strong one but it is not easy to interpret this for different samples/ different player styles/ different stack comfort levels etc.

If you wanted to maximise your bb/100 you would play in the best 'cash' rather than $ev way for the sized stacks you had but we know that this would be a disaster for any final table play so here we have to give up on earnable bb's in order to maximise our % roi return.

Also for bb/100 to be useful I would think you would have to filter them at least for blinds sizes. At the early stages of tournaments you are playing 100's of bb's deep and with decent play and many poor players still alive it is much easier to have very high bb/100 score. Later at the sub 20bb level the same quality of play is likely to generate a much smaller bb/100 score. Also, we will play more of these early hands and less of the late stage play due to simple tournament attrition.
So the early stuff will dominate and it would be possible for a decent early player to have a high bb/100 but be a terrible player at late stages and so still have a good overall bb/100 but be a big loser. I suspect players that were loose early and very tight late could easily have great looking bb/100 scores and bad roi.

I think you would have to apply plenty of filters to get some use of this stat and also know what was good and sensible to aim for for the different filters.