Quote:
Originally Posted by BaseMetal2
This is not really to be unexpected and often gets people wound up and stressed.
The way tournaments work is that we build up chips and often have to put them at risk some times. In big field games we are quite unlikely to finish 1st and so there will usually be a time when we put in a stack and lose. This always happens on our last hand unless we actually do win the tournament and so if you look at your recent history you will just about always see that the last hand was 'unlucky' - the hands that get you to this stack will often have been the opposite giving you a few lucky breaks. These late hands are also very often the ones involving biggest stacks or EV change.
It is not really surprising when going out you are actually a strong favorite when the chips go in, you simply have to get pretty lucky to go deep and very lucky to win one. Sadly with big field MTTs most of us playing these can't play enough to overcome this factor - many are actually simply gambling rather than being sure of a yearly profit (well you know what I mean, you can have a decent skill edge and yet show a yearly loss).
Thanks for telling me that, I identified it once i was starting MTTs and use it to help decrease my tiltyness here's an example of how i see it & also what I'm trying to get at.
Say someone is good at flipping coins, and can flip 60% heads over 10000 flips. He's gonna lose the first flip 40% of the time, but say his dad challenges him to a one use freeroll every day (say instead of pocket money of $20/day), that every time he gets 4 consecutive heads, he wins $200. On average, 21.6% of the time, he'll get 3 heads in a row (and 13% of the time he'll get the $20, which makes his EV .13x200=$26/day, $6 more than the '$20 day' and more fun too!).
Say he does it 25% of the time (Gets 3 in a row) over the first 50 days, so he's running a bit above EV for the first 3 flips.
But on the 4th, he's averaging 25%.
So basically, instead of cashing 13% of the time, he's cashing 5% of the time. Heck, if we consider his flips aren't dependent on pressure/purely based on the 0.6 value, once he has 3 'good' flips, which is 25% of the time, he should actually be getting 15% ITM (Instead of 13%).
My point is that I believe my results are possibly explained by that.
I'm running above EV in BB/100 (Slightly), but my Chips won is HALF of my chips won. Basically, I'm running good in all in equity (Which thinking about it, is a very small part of luck in poker... its far better to regularly have your kings up against queens and lose 25% of those rather than 20%, than running good a bit more often, but having your kings up against aces quite often... or basically charge guys for draws but they always get there / you never do!) ... up until the blinds start increasing. Yes, I'm aware that one big pot on the FT probably skews so much of that, but it bears thinking.
I personally just thinking, going back to my coin analogy, that I don't 'tilt' when i get unlucky in my 'first 3 flips.' I'm actually disfavored to get to the ITM (80-20) despite probably being ahead of most of the field / having good equity in the hands i play, but after having gotten to 3 flips (Which is just a matter of registering in enough tournaments, on average i ITM 20%) but having gotten to those '20%' of tournaments, i do believe i'm running very bad, with the ChipEV being double the actual chips won/anecdotal evidence of the highest equity pots, to back it up.
Imagine, every time i got into the final 5%, i'm getting stung by the deck far more often than i ought to (i.e. say big hand vs big hand, or just losing more often than i should). Basically, I'm saying for any 1 random tournament, yes i'm likely to bust out and highly disfavored to win. But, when you look at say, when i get to the last 10% (Which means you are only looking at 13% of my tournaments), i'm running way below. And over 1000+ tournaments, im getting to 'the last 10%, 100% of the time, 13% of the time' so you don't need to look it 'that im lucky to get there' - we've already removed the majority of tournaments from our information source. I also totally understand, that 'even 1000' tournaments, or even 10000 tournaments, is nowhere near enough. Extrapolating my HM2 db's stats, its around 100k hands. Which, for example in cash games, might give you a half decent estimate of your winrate in bb/100. It definitely won't give you good information in tournaments, where the variance is astronomically higher due to the structure of them.
10/20/40/20/10 (Finish % on average)
8/16/38/25/13 (My finish %)
That 13% means every 1000 tournaments, im getting to the top 10%, 30 times / 30% per more than expected.
Having gotten there though, my ROI is only 23% - just after i binked too where its at a local maximum.