Hi,

This is my graph for 215k hands as it shows. Probably not a great bb/100, but still, profitable.

Graphs for big blind >200 and >500 are also with a good chip winrate. Still, as you can see, I'm 28k down. I know it has been discussed before, but can variance be just this big? Is it a doom switch, what explains this?

Unfortunately, variance nowadays can be this cruel yeah. 5bb/100 is allright, could pbb cut some of your higher buy ins maybe.

This year (2016) it's near 10bb/100 in 67k hands. What do you think is a good winrate for this ~30$ avg buy in?

And yes..I did cut a lot of tournaments. Playing really low right now.

Do you think I'm definitely profitable with this chip winrate? I mean, can I still not be profitable?

10bb/100 is crushing level, everything above 4/5 is pretty solid imo. so yeah, you are definitely beating the games you are playing. I have a similar stretch, decent bb/100 winrate, lost a lot of dollars though. variance is just sick in mtt's, perhaps if you win a few more important flips , you are up 30k instead of down etc

most of my losses come from 100+ buy ins though, I dno if you have analyzed yours, but yeah cutting a few of those games during a downswing is a smart thing to do usually if you've lost some confidence. MTT poker is just silly I guess, and some people just run better than some others, we'll have to deal with it I guess.

Would really suprise me if you wouldn't be profitable with a 10bb/100 winrate, unless you have some massive icm leaks or whatever. wouldn't worry about it too much, and just keep grinding

might be a good idea btw to check your post-ante winrate as well. will usually be lower than pre ante, so everything above 3/4 is allright usually. pre-ante winrate can be heavily inflated because of getting gifts from rec players for 100bb+ etc

Thanks for your opinion, mate. Yea, I have checked post ante and winrate is 5.9bb/100 for 145k hands overall.. 8.11bb/100 for 2016 in 50k hands (small sample). I've had icm leaks in 2015 (even though I was always aware of it), which dropped considerably throughout 2015-2016.

I haven't analysed where the losses comes from, but yea, since now I know variance is this big, I really must change my plans regarding bankroll management for mtts.

It could be that you play the early levels very well and play the later game worse. But obviously bb/100 isn't really a good indicator as the only levels where you'll have good samples will be the ones where the money matters least.

But yeah, variance. You can get many 11-8th places or you can win a couple of mtts and that can make up for the entire -28k difference.

Yea Soepgroente, this reminds me one of these sundays. 8th in Bigger 8.80 (9,5k first), 11th in Nightly 162 (9,5k first) and 24th Sunday Warm-up. Sick that is happens for so long (88 played days, but actually more).

By the way, as I said, my post ante winrate is higher, and my bb>500 is even higher. Looks like i've been losing key hands in very late stages of the tournaments and that's the most decisive thing.

I just wanted to make sure it is impossible to be a loser player with this chip winrate numbers, because my confidence is being slowly killed right now.

noob question how ddi u fine bb/100 in the graph which filter did you use ?

sunilcutm, I'm using pt4 right now

there, click "Show Information Box", "Configure" and then add bb/100 in the displayed stats. Just search and add.

All this, in the "View Stats" > "Graphs" tabs.

It's a rank life is the tourney lyf

ABI? And average field size? Diff sites?

This stat is nowhere near as important as people make it out to be.

Few variations that could massively affect your winrate but will not be represented in this graph.

1. Buyin level, if you play buyins from say $11 to $215, the bb/100 in the higher levels is likely to be significantly lower AND has more influence on your winrate.
2. ICM, you can make +cEV plays that will reflect a higher bb/100 winrate but will actually be -$EV, thus negatively impacting your winrate.
3. As soep mentioned, the later stages are much more important and that is the pool you'll have a smaller sample on.

If you steal 1st hand in a Hyper you get ~2.8BB that are worth ~70 chips
if you steal a hand at the short handed FT of a 5$ Hyper, you get also 2.xBB that are worth 100-150k chips and possibly 100$ in EV.

Try to tell the difference on a BB graph.

It shows how well you're beating your fields and building stacks. It's def important but doesn't show the complete picture like in cash where it's all about bb/100 win rate.

The higher you bb/100 is the more opportunities your going to create as you build more stacks and have extra lives (can afford to lose flips) to go deeper more often.

Small win rate mean less runs so when you have runs you have to be really sharp on FTs and run well or your going to be losing a lot or money

The thing is all the $ equity is decided in a few key hands at final two tables, so even if you crush bb/100 you can easily be down over 3k games because fields are huge and your high equity pot sample is still small.

If you crush bb/100 but run bad at the final two tables you'll have a worse ROI than someone who's worse, had less chances, but ran good when he got them. But if you're winning at 5bb+ post ante it's almost impossible to be a losing player.

The best thing you can do is go through your final two table play and take an objective look at all the high equity pots and see if there was any way you could have played them better. If they were just standard spots then don't worry about it.

1- Exactly. I'm running bad in both, but obviously bigger tournaments were the true villains.
2- I'm aware of ICM, I got a lot better in it in the last 90k btw. And I don't think its so hard to be better than the field, because it's very common to find players who has no clue about it.

Indeed, running bad in late stages seems to be the whole point.

Agreed. It is 5.9bb post ante if im not mistaken, and for 2016, 8.9 or something. It's a 140k hands sample for post ante, it is not so small that we can't conclude something, right?

Thanks for the insights.

running bad late in mtts can lead to these results sure, but you shouldn't just jump to that conclusion because it makes sense. there are other possible explanations.

making small but frequent mistakes late in tournaments can cost you alot of $EV long term but leave you with a pretty cEV graph

there is no downside to exploring the possibility that you are making small mistakes late in tournaments

good luck. it's nice to see a genuine thread where people are having a friendly discussion

That's right. Still, this is also inside the variance spectrum. Suppose I struggle in some spot and they have appeared frequently in my late games. Ofc this can be part of the problem. I know I made mistakes in this sample, some of which I remember. But its unlikely that in this relatively big sample all the downsides late stages are mistakes. So yea, it seems more a question of variance, because as I read somewhere, it's unlikely that someone playing fine during the tournament will simple blow everything when it's 5% left.

To keep evolving is a rule, ofc, but understanding something like this is very useful if you are in a doom switch.

Heres some of my data for comparison:


I'm averaging +22BB/100 in the cesspool of i that is the micros (ABI of around $2). I've played a bit over 1000 tournaments in the 6~ months i've played. The 22bb is just from the past 1-2 months ((350 tournies) I can't/haven't bothered to access the older HM /PT db's)

Also, if you had asked me a few weeks ago i'd have been down around 150BI ($300) over a period of a few months (That said, I play too many turbos.. that ROI just won't be there late considering your edge when you have 10-15BB is capped) just not enough normal / slow (the latter also takes like 12 hours to win...when 2 people at the FT sitout) tournaments in micros. I've played 1 slow tournament my whole life, and its the only MTT i've outright won and why I'm not down 150BI.. but that's how MTTs go right. Lose for ages then bink).

MTT variance with such large fields is a cruel mistress. You're also playing for a lotta dough, and where the edges are gonna be a lot smaller... you can't just wait to stack someone whose willing to go with KJ or AJ pre when you have AK or 9's plus or w/e because your tournaments won't have as many exceptionally poor players as mine (including me). 100% cbet IP, very few floats (or calling down with nothing). Overinflating pots with showdown value etc etc.

I think the reason why I'm doing so poor, is that although i'm 'running good' on average in terms of Big blinds over the couple 100 tourneys the data is from (I.e. when i have 83% all in equity i'm winning 87% of the time) my actual number of chips won vs the EV of chips is about half. Like I'm meant to have won 2.8 million but only won 1.5 million. Since the only time you have that many chips is late, it stands to reason i'm running way below EV when the blinds are say 4k/8k rather than 10/20. I know which I'd prefer.

Secondly, I feel like I'm getting the justin swartz treatment when im in the final 30 or 50 or 100 of a 3000~ person tournament. Either hitting opponents waking up with the top of their range (Thats how turbos go Heck in the only tourney i've won, i managed to flop the nut straight (10-A) with AQ, and AJ runners a full house (With only a pair of jacks otf) with his 100% cbet etc. style .

Maybe you're running bad, or perhaps its a whole list of factors including:
1) You are say +10bb against the early field but neutral or even lower late (for 100 different reasons, incl nervousness / playing differently
2) Run bad late in so many ways (Low amount of aces/kings, running into aces/kings or tough tables


Anecdotal evidence (the strongest of all evidi) has my biggest 2 or 3 biggest EV pots involving me being 80-20 or such ahead when the money goes in and losing all of them. i.e. 10's vs 7-8s for the chip lead in the 25k micro with 60 left ( I have a good & salty memory).

My solution (for me) is starting 5NL and hopefully higher soon (I've basically never played cash) and only table the featured tournaments... 6 max is a very good format when you are playing against people worse than you (Which is pretty difficult in the micros for tournaments/cash). Can see a whole lot more flops, and the ROI is high enough that I'm basically freerolling my reduced tournament schedule (more featured and slightly higher ABI), instead of losing most days and then (hopefully) binking.

This is not really to be unexpected and often gets people wound up and stressed.
The way tournaments work is that we build up chips and often have to put them at risk some times. In big field games we are quite unlikely to finish 1st and so there will usually be a time when we put in a stack and lose. This always happens on our last hand unless we actually do win the tournament and so if you look at your recent history you will just about always see that the last hand was 'unlucky' - the hands that get you to this stack will often have been the opposite giving you a few lucky breaks. These late hands are also very often the ones involving biggest stacks or EV change.

It is not really surprising when going out you are actually a strong favorite when the chips go in, you simply have to get pretty lucky to go deep and very lucky to win one. Sadly with big field MTTs most of us playing these can't play enough to overcome this factor - many are actually simply gambling rather than being sure of a yearly profit (well you know what I mean, you can have a decent skill edge and yet show a yearly loss).

Thanks for telling me that, I identified it once i was starting MTTs and use it to help decrease my tiltyness here's an example of how i see it & also what I'm trying to get at.

Say someone is good at flipping coins, and can flip 60% heads over 10000 flips. He's gonna lose the first flip 40% of the time, but say his dad challenges him to a one use freeroll every day (say instead of pocket money of $20/day), that every time he gets 4 consecutive heads, he wins $200. On average, 21.6% of the time, he'll get 3 heads in a row (and 13% of the time he'll get the $20, which makes his EV .13x200=$26/day, $6 more than the '$20 day' and more fun too!).

Say he does it 25% of the time (Gets 3 in a row) over the first 50 days, so he's running a bit above EV for the first 3 flips.

But on the 4th, he's averaging 25%.

So basically, instead of cashing 13% of the time, he's cashing 5% of the time. Heck, if we consider his flips aren't dependent on pressure/purely based on the 0.6 value, once he has 3 'good' flips, which is 25% of the time, he should actually be getting 15% ITM (Instead of 13%).



My point is that I believe my results are possibly explained by that.

I'm running above EV in BB/100 (Slightly), but my Chips won is HALF of my chips won. Basically, I'm running good in all in equity (Which thinking about it, is a very small part of luck in poker... its far better to regularly have your kings up against queens and lose 25% of those rather than 20%, than running good a bit more often, but having your kings up against aces quite often... or basically charge guys for draws but they always get there / you never do!) ... up until the blinds start increasing. Yes, I'm aware that one big pot on the FT probably skews so much of that, but it bears thinking.


I personally just thinking, going back to my coin analogy, that I don't 'tilt' when i get unlucky in my 'first 3 flips.' I'm actually disfavored to get to the ITM (80-20) despite probably being ahead of most of the field / having good equity in the hands i play, but after having gotten to 3 flips (Which is just a matter of registering in enough tournaments, on average i ITM 20%) but having gotten to those '20%' of tournaments, i do believe i'm running very bad, with the ChipEV being double the actual chips won/anecdotal evidence of the highest equity pots, to back it up.

Imagine, every time i got into the final 5%, i'm getting stung by the deck far more often than i ought to (i.e. say big hand vs big hand, or just losing more often than i should). Basically, I'm saying for any 1 random tournament, yes i'm likely to bust out and highly disfavored to win. But, when you look at say, when i get to the last 10% (Which means you are only looking at 13% of my tournaments), i'm running way below. And over 1000+ tournaments, im getting to 'the last 10%, 100% of the time, 13% of the time' so you don't need to look it 'that im lucky to get there' - we've already removed the majority of tournaments from our information source. I also totally understand, that 'even 1000' tournaments, or even 10000 tournaments, is nowhere near enough. Extrapolating my HM2 db's stats, its around 100k hands. Which, for example in cash games, might give you a half decent estimate of your winrate in bb/100. It definitely won't give you good information in tournaments, where the variance is astronomically higher due to the structure of them.


10/20/40/20/10 (Finish % on average)
8/16/38/25/13 (My finish %)

That 13% means every 1000 tournaments, im getting to the top 10%, 30 times / 30% per more than expected.

Having gotten there though, my ROI is only 23% - just after i binked too where its at a local maximum.

Chips won means ****. Is way too inflated by endgames. Say you loose one 80/20 for 10 mil chips etc etc

What's the crushing bb/100 at 30-60 ABI? My stats is like 10bb/100, 5bb/100 < 40bbs (and I'm a ICM nit); 30bbs/100 >100bbs. My roi% is ****ty tho 10% ish over last 1.2k games (lol sample size tho)

Filter for antes in play for more relevance to chips and money. In that realm crushing is over 8bb/100. Average reg is like 5bb/100. Reg who needs to move down is at 2bb/100.

If your at 10bb/100 and not making a bunch of tournament punts you are killing the games. Plenty of chip crushers love lighting money on fire tho.

Although chip allinEvAdj is not all the luck I do think it is still actually quite a decent part of it, well at least for large turbo SngMtts - it will be a bit less important for schedule MTTs where longer, more varied play is possible rather than the early sub 15bb shove fests. Even the mentioned KK vs QQ hands will very often be allin by the turn and so show up strongly on the allin chipev diff.

I think the biggest thing that protects you is your skill edge. If you have a large enough roi your results will not so strongly track the outrageous fortune of allin chip adjusted ev.

At the moment I have only played approx 10k 180 MttSngs will a paltry 12% roi. When plotted it is quite easy to see that I am very closely following the vagaries of luck in these games.

The ones plotted below are during the last 12 months, a total of 4941 games of 180s with a total of 222675 hands (only 10% roi seen during this stretch). Filtering for 5 players or more (so no FT stuff, and so mostly low icm) I have seen a total of 15585 allin pre-river hands (with no future action possible).

[IMG][/IMG]

The sample is really small and I don't really know if I am yet a true winner in these, my 90% confidence interval is a wide -2% to + 24% for these ~5k games.

The green line above is the 'luck' adjusted, the orange the actual chip score, the black is the (actual minus the adjusted), and the red is $ won result (not to scale).

So for me if I get unlucky allin wise I tend to lose, if I get lucky I tend to win, there is a very strong correlation but it might just be because I am pretty rubbish in them and really only have a near break-even roi . Ah, what the hell I don't really mind I'll just keep playing 'till the money runs out and anyway to be honest I really quite like playing around with the numbers that are always generated from playing poker - hence the graphs and stuff.

For full stacked MTTs at normal speed there will be a lot fewer allin hands and more varied play possible and so these will be shielded a little more from an allin luck factor. I think the real lesson to learn is to simply get better and you won't mind or notice (quite so much) the knocks that come courtesy of the random noise generator.