villain is a tight 16/10 multi-tabler, I haven't been excessively active but have been stealing a reasonable amt.

I 4-bet w/the intention of perhaps folding pre (bad?)

I don't like JJ anymore, the pot is huge and a bet IMM is a bluff that I don't know what its chances are; but it seems a shame to just give up so what do I do?




Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $120.45
SB: $49.50
BB: $47.15
UTG: $47.85
Hero (CO): $95.00

Pre Flop: Hero is CO with J J
1 fold, Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, BB raises to $7, Hero raises to $17, BB calls $10

Flop: ($34.25) T 4 A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ...


edit: actually I chkd thru hoping to spike; my question is for the same spot on x turn (villains chks and it's to me)

edit2: actually both questions - should I have chkd flop and now what on turn?

I think he'd normally jam QQ+ preflop so Ax and badly played smaller pairs make up his range. He's not folding Ax, if he had QQ/KK he might fold it but I've discounted them a bit. I would check the turn because he's never calling worse, but may bluff worse on the river, if he bets small I pay him off (maybe), if he shoves I say nh.

I don't think I 4b pre though, you're probably not getting played back at much by him and even the 'light' hands he does it with are close to flipping you here. I'd call and play the pot in posn.

4 bet folding here would be terrible IMO. If you 4 bet this it should be with the intention of getting it in. Given his nittyness id prolly just call the 3 bet and take a flop in position

given the way it was played id check turn and maybe call river, depending on bet size. and id also check the flop

No way you got position I make a $15 flop bet and put a halt on it there. So many times he will fold kings and queens. If he has the Ace he will pop you up.

hmmm, thats a good point. If he is capable of folding KK QQ JJ then a flop bet might be right

Lets say hell flat the 4 bet with AA/KK AK 1/3 of the time, QQ JJ 1/2 the time, and TT AQs 1/3 of the time then he can have

3 combos of AA * .33 = 1 combo
6 combos of KK * .33 = 2 combo
12 combos AK * .33 = 4 combos
6 combos QQ * .5 = 3 combos
1 combos JJ * .5 = .5 combo
3 combos TT *.33 =1 combo
3 combos AQs *.33 = 1 combo

so 12.5 combos

say you bet half pot and he folds KK half the time and QQ 80% and JJ always, when he doesnt fold KK QQ he just calls and you get 2 cards to suck out, well say he crAI everything else

so KK 2/12.5 *( .5($34.5) + .5(.9(-$17)+.1($51.5)) = $1.94
QQ 3/12.5 * (.8($34.5) + .2(.9(-$17)+ .1($51.5)) = $6.13
JJ .5/12.5 * ($34.5) = $1.38
everything else 7/13.5 * (-$17) = -$9.52

so total EV of a bet given those conditions is -$.07

so really its break even with those conditions, unless he will pay off his last $13 on turn or river with KK/QQ when you spike (but I didnt factor that in, cuz sometimes he will just crAI flop with those hands since hell figure "**** it if I call I only have $13 left).

so really it hinges on both how often hes doing what PF and how often hes folding those hands post flop. I mean he prolly flats TT AQ less than 1/3 but I dont think it matters that much, and its tough to know what people are doing with AA KK, some prolly flat way more than half some way less. But I dont think it can be big EV one way or the other, and still has to be factored against the EV of checking and hoping to spike, which by default has to be higher than zero since it isnt going to be -EV in this spot, so I think checking is prolly better play, but I dunno

i'd probably check it through. with a read i'd fire, but he's so short after preflop that it's going to be tough for him to get away from anything reasonable.

i don't think i'd 4bet pf. that being said, i was noticing last night when playing that i wasn't 4betting enough pre so what the hell do i know.