sorry for the goofy posts lately. in keeping with that tradition:

i raise JTUTG to 3.50, a complete fish(44/8/.5) with a stack of 85.00 calls like he always does ever since he caught me bluffing...oh who am i kidding he was always calling before too, a nit calls in the BB(he's 14/10/1 over maybe 40 hands, he has about 100 behind). i have everyone covered.

Flop(10.50ish): 894

BB checks, i bet 8.00, fish calls, BB checkraises to 30.00, i call, fish folds(hmm, who is the fish here again?).

Turn(70.50ish): 8

BB pauses for a second and shoves so i'm getting about 67.5:138 or a little over 2:1(2.0444444:1 if you're a nit). call or fold?

This may sound dumb but You cant put him on a set as he would just check as his hand is made. I put him on the 8 or A-9 hearts. One of your draws may be bust. Youve already got 40 in. I think either way is right. Personally I would fold.

In all honesty I would turbo muck this without any reads, in general I don't think that 14/10 types are doing this with draws 2pair or trips nearly often enough to make this a call. There aren't alot of those types of hands in his range preflop for him to have here and even if you had some miracle read that he only does this with strong draws, overpairs and 9x then its gonna be pretty close to neutral EV anyway.

His range is pretty narrow when he c/r 2 opponents on this flop this is like 44/99 always imo

Damn I hate playing with nits

I don't like calling the flop but I think the turn is probably a call

Once the board pairs I really don't think he's shoving potzise if he boated up, if he did then well done him. I think that makes his likely hands draws/overpairs and you're doing pretty well vs them.

JsTs/6s7s are the most likely draws and you're equal with one of them and ahead of the other. Vs JJ you have about 34% equity which means you can call with neutral EV. TT (more likely since he'd often 3b JJ) you have 40% equity making it +EV. Vs QQ and better you're not in good shape but he's almost always squeezing with those preflop so you have to discount them a bit.

So, given you got yourself here I think you need to call.

On the flop I'd probably not cbet because mr 44/8 isn't folding and he's likely not betting either so you get a free shot at your draw. If you described him as the foldy type then I like a cbet more but I still think you get looked up a ton on this flop.

I just looked at this in a little more detail and played around with some ranges, even if I give villian the widest range imaginable(which is pretty unrealistic imo) I can't get our equity over 30% here.

Results from http:\\www.HoldEmRanger.com
1,276 evaluations, 29 hole card combos

Board: 8s 9s 4h 8h

Wins Ties Equity
69.44% 1.02% 70.45% ( JJ-99,44,89s,9Ts,JsTs,6s7s,6h7h,A9s,A8s,As5s,As6s,As7 s,AsTs,AsJs, )
28.53% 1.02% 29.55% ( JhTh )

@djshawk
I don't understand why you're discounting a FH so much if villain c/r the flop with 44/99/89 and got a call from our hero then why wouldn't he shove the turn? What else is he gonna do when he only has a pot sized bet left? Would you really check here? From his pov there can't be many hands in our range that call the flop c/r and then fold the turn, I may be wrong but his line looks pretty strong to me. When he c/r the flop into 2 opponents 1 of them being a known station I would be more inclined to discount draws rather than made hands which is where we seem to differ.

Because he knows he's got the nuts and the other guy will have a hard time calling. I can certainly see him c/r flop with 44/99/89 but I think he'd bet smaller on the turn to make it harder to fold. Meh what do I know.