Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread

08-03-2011 , 09:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by J.D.
Vyk, you said Dean/nutjob were wolves...and then said the above. Explain please?

and BTW, cant wait to hear this one.

Supine/vyk/Hifi/sooted in some order would be juicy. see you next week
FWIW, as a wolf I never make this post. I hate bussing, and FWIW I was the first to call out sooted for his vote, I never do that as a wolf either, would only do it as a last resort.

If needed I can find a game where Rebonk was peeked wolf, and I defended him so much that I ended up basically outting myself in the process.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Anarchist
J.D. doing work, I like it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Anarchist
and we were pushed to lynch dean, too bad someone made a "guarantee"
Anarchist, when did you decide I was your best wolf lean?

FWIW, I am really starting to see a chance that Anarchist could be a wolf here, although I still am going to have an almost impossible time voting him.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zayana
Oh and he's agreeing with him in the same post and he lumps UAW and supine again, which makes me think they are his peeks. Supine N0 and UAW N1. He states on N0 that Supine is an obviously villager, he either states over and over that he's a villager or he's a wolf. I'll find that post.
I am also wondering why UAW is still alive.
X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread Quote
08-04-2011 , 05:36 AM
Wow, stunned that noone has posted since last night.

FYI, I am headed to the airport today. flight from 11:30 to approx 3:00ish Eastern Time.

Will be in the car for a couple hours after that.

I will make it back to thread before EOD.
X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread Quote
08-04-2011 , 05:40 AM
What is the point of posting if no one else will? It really feels like this thread is dead.
X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread Quote
08-04-2011 , 05:50 AM
You are actually the only one I wouldnt give **** to for not posting as you always seem to be around thread.

Do you still plan on voting for me?

Could you possibly be a wolf here?
X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread Quote
08-04-2011 , 05:51 AM
thx

not sure, whatever the village wants. casting a single vote is ******ed because the wolves can use it to win and it doesn't do anything anyway

no
X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread Quote
08-04-2011 , 06:05 AM
How do you think you would play as a wolf?

I am thinking you are just a natural high posting person, and could be capable of this as a wolf. I also see a lot of bad posts, especially D2 when Dean got lynched, and D3 as you excuse yourself from taking blame for it.

I am not voting you today though, no chance.
X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread Quote
08-04-2011 , 06:08 AM
i dont know, i think my only wolf game was a turbo where i played terrible. also my partner got lynched super early so i lost, but basically i had my back against the wall and made ******ed posts.

like i said in another game (i think it was a turbo) i have a hard time distinguishing between a wolf and a seer. both have a really weird/aggro tone because they know stuff and they're trying to push the village to do something very specific. i went with the wagon, i thought dean seemed wolfy, but he turned out to be the seer. meh

also he's dean, voting for him is good.
X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread Quote
08-04-2011 , 09:28 AM
I've posted tons. And I also keep waiting for all the great things i keep hearing promised, like Herbie has done repeatedly (though he is not the only one). I reread through pg 24 the day we no lynched. I am pretty sure it is JD and Herbie. I was in the turbo anarchist mentioned, and his wolf game there stood out immediately, so I really don't think he is one here, not that he was getting lynched anyway.

So I'll vote anyone as long as it is Herbie or jd, sponging off anarchist.
X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread Quote
08-04-2011 , 10:04 AM
Look idk, I'm sure I should like actually fight here or something to save myself but I just don't feel it

The last four nightkills in order have been Sun/Zaya/Hoya/Supine. Sun and Zaya both had me as villagers, Hoya and Supine both had me as unknown or wolf. If I was actually a wolf there's no way I kill in that order because it would be ridiculous for me to do so.

I'd also just like to throw out there that Sun has never cleared me when I've been a wolf and he's been a villager. Never, not once, not ever.

Also the reason Zayana thought I was a villager is because I basically just cleared like 5 or 6 people off Dean dying as seer. Assuming UAW is a villager I WAS RIGHT ABOUT EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM BEING CLEAR. The only reason I can think of why I would do something like that as a wolf is if I wanted to have an excuse to kill off people who thought I was a wolf and would vote against me, but again, see my first point

So to think I'm a wolf here you have to believe that I correctly cleared approximately half the people left in the game on like day 3 then proceeded to kill my biggest supporters among the villagers (who also happen to know me the best of anyone in the game) at the soonest possible opportunity while leaving alive all the villagers who had doubts about my role

That's the thing - people say I'm "capable" of doing anything as a wolf and I am when it comes to individual actions. What I'm never going to do as a wolf is take a consistent string of actions that damage my team's chances of winning. To think that I'm a wolf here you have to believe that I have been making systematically illogical plays throughout the entire last half of this game.

Regardless - I still believe quite strongly that it's Fnord and JD, so I suppose I need to try to convince Anarchist and UAW.
X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread Quote
08-04-2011 , 10:40 AM
Herbie, please pull up the posts where you clear people from deans death.

Here's what I really dont like about your game: all game you have been making claims that you would do things later and explain things layer if necessary and and and but for the most part you have not followed through. Your posts sounded really wolfy in my reread, and your stringing the village along repeatedly just reeks of wolfdome.

Jd has sounded really bad to me these past couple of days. He has thrown a few posts out there, some of which I have commented on. In general his posts lack any sort of overall game context. He might say "fnord stayed on hifi, ..." and link the thought to the days events, but I just see him looking at little sections trying to make cases based on smallish portions of the game but without ever really having any whole game views. I'm having a hard time expressing what I am thinking here; suffice it to say I think he is a wolf trying to look like he is analyzing the game.

Anarchist is not getting my vote ever; if he is a wolf here I would be flabbergasted.

Uaw, based on my reread through pg 24, gets a pass for at least today for just sounding so villagery. I'm going to have a hard time ever being convinced he is more likely to be a wolf than Herbie or jd.
X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread Quote
08-04-2011 , 10:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HerbieGRD
I suppose people have posted about all they are going to about Dean's peeks, so I'll go ahead and tell you what I think, and why I waited.

The reason I wanted to wait before posting them is because I feel pretty strongly that we are just never going to know who Dean peeked and who Dean didn't peek. I went through his posts several times and I'm still not completely convinced he didn't actually peek me villa n0, though I'm not sure whether he'd actually peek me or not (I realize this sounds weird, but there's meta here, and I wouldn't expect Dean to play seer in a straightforward manner). From what I've seen there's like 5-6 possible peeks, and this is assuming he even felt the need to share his peeks at all since he obviously didn't think he was going to die when he did and Dean is the sort who would hold his peeks close to the vest in hopes of avoiding nightkill. You can make an argument that this person or that person is definitely a peek, and this person or that person is definitely not the peek, but I think you'd be lying if you can say with certainty that they were actually the peek. This also isn't like a nightkill in that the wolves were obviously killing him based on certain peeks he left ITT. It's possible here that a person that seems most likely to be a "peeked villager" is actually a wolf.

Because of this I feel like the best we can do is think of this in terms of percentages. Dean may have peeked Supine villa 30% of the time, or UAW villa 40% of the time, or HiFi wolf 20% of the time (later dithering notwithstanding, it's still not impossible, because of what I said earlier).

From what I've seen I feel like all of Zaya, Boj, Hoya, Sun, UAW, and Supine deserve some % of "peeked villa" credit (leaving myself out because I really don't think it matters whether he peeked me or not). I also think HiFi gets some "peeked wolf" credit here, even though she probably wasn't peeked wolf.

What this means in terms of the game is that I feel like we're now going to pretty much live and die by Dean's reads. This is easier than normal for me to accept because I actually like pretty much all of Dean's reads - out of all the people I just listed as getting peeked villa cred the only one that I think is even reasonably likely to be a wolf is Supine, and imo Supine can only be a wolf here if HiFi is also a wolf.

Next I'll discuss why we need to lynch HiFi today although this seems to be pretty well accepted by everyone. It's important to go through the logic though, because it will help us solve the game once HiFi's role is revealed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zayana
I'm ok with this, I just know he didn't peek me. So I thought we'd be better off trying to figure out who he did peek. Because if it is UAW/Supine, that is bonus with Supine getting heat. And if he doesn't die when he's supposed to, yeah fine. But until then I'm thinking they are peeked. The rest I already had cleared, so that works out anyway
Quote:
Originally Posted by HerbieGRD
Now about HiFi - normally I am not a huge advocate of resolving wagons for information because I feel like people don't know how to use the information that they get (myself included). In this case, however, there are several people whose roles I believe depend heavily on HiFi's role here and should obviously never be lynched before she is. The first is Supine - him soft claiming seer to push Dean yesterday looks terrible on first blush because Dean came up seer, but it only makes sense for him to do something like that as a wolf if HiFi is also a wolf. I can't envision a situation where Supine does something like that as a wolf knowing how bad he would look when Dean flips villa just to mislynch him over another villager. Combined with his seer peeked % I feel HiFi flipping village would just about clear him. HiFi flipping wolf doesn't necessarily mean Supine is a wolf, but it would at least make it reasonable to discuss the possibility.

XXSooted is another - his late vote switch looks so shady and weird that he's really really unlikely to do that as a wolf if HiFi is a villager.

Then there's the other group of people who weren't "cleared" by Dean and didn't do anything particularly polarizing at yesterday's EOD, many of whom voted for HiFi yesterday. Fnord, JD, Vyk, anarchist all fall into this group I believe. If HiFi flips villager then they are all far more likely to be wolves simply because Sooted and Supine are far more likely to villagers. If HiFi flips wolf then they are much clearer for the opposite reason.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HerbieGRD
And see this is more or less where I'm at as well - if Dean's village list had like my 2 or 3 biggest wolf suspects on it then I'm obviously going to be more skeptical, but I feel like in all of these cases except maybe Supine the possibility that they were peeked village just augments my own belief that they are actually villagers

The main problem I have with the Supine/UAW theory is that I don't really think he'd peek Supine because I think he thinks he can read Supine, and I don't necessarily suspect that he'd be even that straightforward about his peeks given the heat he was getting. I'm convinced he thought he was going to live for a while and would be able to claim before he was nightkilled, so there's really little incentive for him to leave peek hints at all.
Here's the sequence. Also note that while I was suspicious of Supine at this point and thought he was a wolf I never pushed him for lynch, and iirc at the start of this day the discussion was basically about "lynch hifi/supine I don't care what order", so yet another thing where I'm suspecting 3 people in a situation and end up pushing the two wolves out of the group and NOT pushing the one villager, which again would be COMPLETELY ****ING STUPID for me to do as a wolf.

And yes, I realize that I've done a poor job of contributing lately. I've been busy and I've been distracted, and unfortunately this game has gotten shoved down my list of priorities.

I just think it's silly to lynch me for that when my actions make absolutely no sense if I'm a wolf
X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread Quote
08-04-2011 , 10:50 AM
I typed that too fast - I didn't really "think" supine was a wolf, but I thought he *could* be a wolf, and I thought at the time that him pushing Dean over hifi was really shady if Hifi turned out to be a wolf. That was my point
X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread Quote
08-04-2011 , 10:51 AM
Although I think in the back of my head I kinda did think Supine was a wolf, but that makes the point even stronger, because the whole reason I even sort of cleared him there was because I thought there was a decent chance he would get nightkilled if he was a villager because of Zaya's argument that he was a peeked villager. That's why I was trying to save him for the end of the game, because if he wasn't nightkilled I was almost certainly snap voting him in a final 3 situation, but I didn't want to say that so his odds of being nightkilled would go up
X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread Quote
08-04-2011 , 11:02 AM
So the six were zaya, sun, boj, Hoya, uaw, and supine if hifi was villa? Correct?
X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread Quote
08-04-2011 , 11:33 AM
Well Boj was already dead so he was a pretty easy clear there

And I suppose you are correct that I did not clear Supine completely, though I still submit that if I was a wolf I would have used the situation to actually go after him, since his behavior was really as suspicious as XX's, and a lot of people had him solidly as a wolf at the time I made those posts. I think the fact that I never made any effort to get him lynched after that point is pretty damn vindicating for me given the way I wolf - it's exactly the kind of logical but wrong argument that I love to push as a wolf.
X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread Quote
08-04-2011 , 12:11 PM
So anyway, I'm just not giving you villa credit for those posts because I don't see it. This is at least the second time in the past few days you have puffed up a case for why you are a villager that hasn't really born up to scrutiny. The first being the solved the game bit.

Also, you are posting a lot about you, not so much as to why others are wolves. You have posted a little about why anar and uaw are villa.

Anarchist, you around? Talk to me.
X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread Quote
08-04-2011 , 12:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fnord_too
This is at least the second time in the past few days you have puffed up a case for why you are a villager that hasn't really born up to scrutiny. The first being the solved the game bit.
See when you say something like this it's generally customary to at least TRY to either argue with one of the premises or make an argument of your own why the premises do not support the conclusion. You have done neither of these things. You're basically just saying "nah, that's wrong", which is pretty lame on the off chance that you're actually a villager here and far from the standard of analysis I would expect from you in a villager game.

And I'm almost literally loling that you are expecting people to believe that your argument about why you're a villager is in any way even remotely as strong as mine here. Your entire contention is the that XX only switches his vote in that spot on day 2 if he believes you're the seer and peeked him wolf, yet your support for this position does not include any analysis of other possible seer candidates to see if there were others more or equally likely to be correct, nor did you even attempt to address the point I made when asked that by far the most likely explanation for XX's vote switch was simply that he saw a chance to save a wolf and lynch a villager that would have been very very hard to lynch if hifi got lynched as a wolf there.

And I'm almost amazed that even as a wolf you'd have the balls to criticize my argument here with no logic when your own is so woefully inadequate
X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread Quote
08-04-2011 , 12:26 PM
Hey fnord,

I am around a little bit. I'm really not sure who the wolf is, but I have different leans, with JD and Herbie being at the top, then UAW, then you, for all of the reasons I've posted about earlier. It's going to come down to a little bit of a guess/reach, so we have to hope we get it right today to make it to tomorrow.

Let me know who you want to vote today, but imo it's either JD or Herbie.
X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread Quote
08-04-2011 , 12:34 PM
Before I showed how you did not lock the game if you were right.

Here you said you cleared six, but one was already dead and one was shc.

So you think xx throws himself away for one mislynch there? You think he didn't notice my two seer posts were right and that faking with wolves is not common? I have been pretty active and dead on all game. Vyk I was wrong about, except for that he had to go.

I am totally happy to thunderdome with you today. That is for the best IMO, since I fear jd leading a bad lynch in the f3 less than you.
X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread Quote
08-04-2011 , 12:35 PM
If I'm leading it's Herbie today.
X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread Quote
08-04-2011 , 12:35 PM
The breakdown of my thoughts is basically that both of them have had a very suspicious tone/posts this game. JD had a whole "I'm not here" thing, between work/child being born, so I think it's very possible he went UTR. Herbie had a few posts that seemed out of line, but recently has been correcting that.
X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread Quote
08-04-2011 , 12:35 PM
Two posts up is aimed at Herbie, ldo
X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread Quote
08-04-2011 , 12:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fnord_too
I am totally happy to thunderdome with you today. That is for the best IMO, since I fear jd leading a bad lynch in the f3 less than you.
You know I can't take you up on this because I'll lose

The only reason I'm even bothering to argue with you today is because against all my logic and reasoning my gut says you aren't a wolf. Even with as little time as I've had I'm much more confident in my ability to figure it out if we get to a final 3 because then I'll only have to choose between you and one other person.

With JD I have no qualms, my logic and my gut both agree
X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread Quote
08-04-2011 , 12:39 PM
Now whether I can convince people to lynch the wolf in the final 3 is a different question, but at the least I feel like I'll be able to make the right choice and then it's up to the other villager whether to listen to me or not
X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread Quote
08-04-2011 , 12:42 PM
ANARCHIST I NEED TO YOU VOTE JD TODAY
X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread Quote

      
m