X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread
08-03-2011
, 09:28 PM
If needed I can find a game where Rebonk was peeked wolf, and I defended him so much that I ended up basically outting myself in the process.
FWIW, I am really starting to see a chance that Anarchist could be a wolf here, although I still am going to have an almost impossible time voting him.
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Oh and he's agreeing with him in the same post and he lumps UAW and supine again, which makes me think they are his peeks. Supine N0 and UAW N1. He states on N0 that Supine is an obviously villager, he either states over and over that he's a villager or he's a wolf. I'll find that post.
08-04-2011
, 06:08 AM
i dont know, i think my only wolf game was a turbo where i played terrible. also my partner got lynched super early so i lost, but basically i had my back against the wall and made ******ed posts.
like i said in another game (i think it was a turbo) i have a hard time distinguishing between a wolf and a seer. both have a really weird/aggro tone because they know stuff and they're trying to push the village to do something very specific. i went with the wagon, i thought dean seemed wolfy, but he turned out to be the seer. meh
also he's dean, voting for him is good.
like i said in another game (i think it was a turbo) i have a hard time distinguishing between a wolf and a seer. both have a really weird/aggro tone because they know stuff and they're trying to push the village to do something very specific. i went with the wagon, i thought dean seemed wolfy, but he turned out to be the seer. meh
also he's dean, voting for him is good.
08-04-2011
, 10:48 AM
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I suppose people have posted about all they are going to about Dean's peeks, so I'll go ahead and tell you what I think, and why I waited.
The reason I wanted to wait before posting them is because I feel pretty strongly that we are just never going to know who Dean peeked and who Dean didn't peek. I went through his posts several times and I'm still not completely convinced he didn't actually peek me villa n0, though I'm not sure whether he'd actually peek me or not (I realize this sounds weird, but there's meta here, and I wouldn't expect Dean to play seer in a straightforward manner). From what I've seen there's like 5-6 possible peeks, and this is assuming he even felt the need to share his peeks at all since he obviously didn't think he was going to die when he did and Dean is the sort who would hold his peeks close to the vest in hopes of avoiding nightkill. You can make an argument that this person or that person is definitely a peek, and this person or that person is definitely not the peek, but I think you'd be lying if you can say with certainty that they were actually the peek. This also isn't like a nightkill in that the wolves were obviously killing him based on certain peeks he left ITT. It's possible here that a person that seems most likely to be a "peeked villager" is actually a wolf.
Because of this I feel like the best we can do is think of this in terms of percentages. Dean may have peeked Supine villa 30% of the time, or UAW villa 40% of the time, or HiFi wolf 20% of the time (later dithering notwithstanding, it's still not impossible, because of what I said earlier).
From what I've seen I feel like all of Zaya, Boj, Hoya, Sun, UAW, and Supine deserve some % of "peeked villa" credit (leaving myself out because I really don't think it matters whether he peeked me or not). I also think HiFi gets some "peeked wolf" credit here, even though she probably wasn't peeked wolf.
What this means in terms of the game is that I feel like we're now going to pretty much live and die by Dean's reads. This is easier than normal for me to accept because I actually like pretty much all of Dean's reads - out of all the people I just listed as getting peeked villa cred the only one that I think is even reasonably likely to be a wolf is Supine, and imo Supine can only be a wolf here if HiFi is also a wolf.
Next I'll discuss why we need to lynch HiFi today although this seems to be pretty well accepted by everyone. It's important to go through the logic though, because it will help us solve the game once HiFi's role is revealed.
The reason I wanted to wait before posting them is because I feel pretty strongly that we are just never going to know who Dean peeked and who Dean didn't peek. I went through his posts several times and I'm still not completely convinced he didn't actually peek me villa n0, though I'm not sure whether he'd actually peek me or not (I realize this sounds weird, but there's meta here, and I wouldn't expect Dean to play seer in a straightforward manner). From what I've seen there's like 5-6 possible peeks, and this is assuming he even felt the need to share his peeks at all since he obviously didn't think he was going to die when he did and Dean is the sort who would hold his peeks close to the vest in hopes of avoiding nightkill. You can make an argument that this person or that person is definitely a peek, and this person or that person is definitely not the peek, but I think you'd be lying if you can say with certainty that they were actually the peek. This also isn't like a nightkill in that the wolves were obviously killing him based on certain peeks he left ITT. It's possible here that a person that seems most likely to be a "peeked villager" is actually a wolf.
Because of this I feel like the best we can do is think of this in terms of percentages. Dean may have peeked Supine villa 30% of the time, or UAW villa 40% of the time, or HiFi wolf 20% of the time (later dithering notwithstanding, it's still not impossible, because of what I said earlier).
From what I've seen I feel like all of Zaya, Boj, Hoya, Sun, UAW, and Supine deserve some % of "peeked villa" credit (leaving myself out because I really don't think it matters whether he peeked me or not). I also think HiFi gets some "peeked wolf" credit here, even though she probably wasn't peeked wolf.
What this means in terms of the game is that I feel like we're now going to pretty much live and die by Dean's reads. This is easier than normal for me to accept because I actually like pretty much all of Dean's reads - out of all the people I just listed as getting peeked villa cred the only one that I think is even reasonably likely to be a wolf is Supine, and imo Supine can only be a wolf here if HiFi is also a wolf.
Next I'll discuss why we need to lynch HiFi today although this seems to be pretty well accepted by everyone. It's important to go through the logic though, because it will help us solve the game once HiFi's role is revealed.
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I'm ok with this, I just know he didn't peek me. So I thought we'd be better off trying to figure out who he did peek. Because if it is UAW/Supine, that is bonus with Supine getting heat. And if he doesn't die when he's supposed to, yeah fine. But until then I'm thinking they are peeked. The rest I already had cleared, so that works out anyway
I'm ok with this, I just know he didn't peek me. So I thought we'd be better off trying to figure out who he did peek. Because if it is UAW/Supine, that is bonus with Supine getting heat. And if he doesn't die when he's supposed to, yeah fine. But until then I'm thinking they are peeked. The rest I already had cleared, so that works out anyway
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Now about HiFi - normally I am not a huge advocate of resolving wagons for information because I feel like people don't know how to use the information that they get (myself included). In this case, however, there are several people whose roles I believe depend heavily on HiFi's role here and should obviously never be lynched before she is. The first is Supine - him soft claiming seer to push Dean yesterday looks terrible on first blush because Dean came up seer, but it only makes sense for him to do something like that as a wolf if HiFi is also a wolf. I can't envision a situation where Supine does something like that as a wolf knowing how bad he would look when Dean flips villa just to mislynch him over another villager. Combined with his seer peeked % I feel HiFi flipping village would just about clear him. HiFi flipping wolf doesn't necessarily mean Supine is a wolf, but it would at least make it reasonable to discuss the possibility.
XXSooted is another - his late vote switch looks so shady and weird that he's really really unlikely to do that as a wolf if HiFi is a villager.
Then there's the other group of people who weren't "cleared" by Dean and didn't do anything particularly polarizing at yesterday's EOD, many of whom voted for HiFi yesterday. Fnord, JD, Vyk, anarchist all fall into this group I believe. If HiFi flips villager then they are all far more likely to be wolves simply because Sooted and Supine are far more likely to villagers. If HiFi flips wolf then they are much clearer for the opposite reason.
XXSooted is another - his late vote switch looks so shady and weird that he's really really unlikely to do that as a wolf if HiFi is a villager.
Then there's the other group of people who weren't "cleared" by Dean and didn't do anything particularly polarizing at yesterday's EOD, many of whom voted for HiFi yesterday. Fnord, JD, Vyk, anarchist all fall into this group I believe. If HiFi flips villager then they are all far more likely to be wolves simply because Sooted and Supine are far more likely to villagers. If HiFi flips wolf then they are much clearer for the opposite reason.
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And see this is more or less where I'm at as well - if Dean's village list had like my 2 or 3 biggest wolf suspects on it then I'm obviously going to be more skeptical, but I feel like in all of these cases except maybe Supine the possibility that they were peeked village just augments my own belief that they are actually villagers
The main problem I have with the Supine/UAW theory is that I don't really think he'd peek Supine because I think he thinks he can read Supine, and I don't necessarily suspect that he'd be even that straightforward about his peeks given the heat he was getting. I'm convinced he thought he was going to live for a while and would be able to claim before he was nightkilled, so there's really little incentive for him to leave peek hints at all.
The main problem I have with the Supine/UAW theory is that I don't really think he'd peek Supine because I think he thinks he can read Supine, and I don't necessarily suspect that he'd be even that straightforward about his peeks given the heat he was getting. I'm convinced he thought he was going to live for a while and would be able to claim before he was nightkilled, so there's really little incentive for him to leave peek hints at all.
And yes, I realize that I've done a poor job of contributing lately. I've been busy and I've been distracted, and unfortunately this game has gotten shoved down my list of priorities.
I just think it's silly to lynch me for that when my actions make absolutely no sense if I'm a wolf
08-04-2011
, 11:33 AM
Well Boj was already dead so he was a pretty easy clear there 
And I suppose you are correct that I did not clear Supine completely, though I still submit that if I was a wolf I would have used the situation to actually go after him, since his behavior was really as suspicious as XX's, and a lot of people had him solidly as a wolf at the time I made those posts. I think the fact that I never made any effort to get him lynched after that point is pretty damn vindicating for me given the way I wolf - it's exactly the kind of logical but wrong argument that I love to push as a wolf.
And I suppose you are correct that I did not clear Supine completely, though I still submit that if I was a wolf I would have used the situation to actually go after him, since his behavior was really as suspicious as XX's, and a lot of people had him solidly as a wolf at the time I made those posts. I think the fact that I never made any effort to get him lynched after that point is pretty damn vindicating for me given the way I wolf - it's exactly the kind of logical but wrong argument that I love to push as a wolf.