*** mod note ***

Next eod is on sunday.

*** mod note ***

Yes.

Ok I'm just going to throw this out there because I was thinking about it earlier and I get paranoid. I want to be ABSOLUTELY CLEAR before I start this that I believe the odds of this actually being the case are very very slim, but I'm going to feel really dumb if I don't at least mention the possibility and it turns out to be what's actually happening

The two main reasons Hoya is considered to be completely clear here are this and the n1 kill. These are both powerful reasons and either one makes him all but totally clear by itself. The only thing to consider is that taken together they would make perfect sense as an FPS play to clear him - it would take him off the table for the seer and give him both an objective argument to clear him (SHC) and an argument that he would never do X (bus hifi the way he did) as a wolf. Also to this point all of the nightkills have been more or less standard with one exception - Hoya's not dead yet, and I think it's a relatively small pool of players who think Hoya is less dangerous than either Sun or Zayana.

The only reason I bring this up is because if somehow Hoya is a wolf I'm pretty sure I get nightkilled tonight, and it wanted to make sure that I was on the record as saying that if by some chance Hoya is still alive AT MUST LYNCH he should not be considered to be 100% clear and you should not feel ok just sponging his vote. If Hoya dies tonight no worries. If Vyk is a wolf and Hoya doesn't die tonight then that's still not a problem because we still have a mislynch. In that scenario he should be considered absolutely clear and worthy of your trust. It's only if Vyk is a villager and Hoya doesn't die tonight OR if Vyk is a wolf and then a villager is mislynched at f5 and Hoya is still around at f3 that you need to consider the possibility that the wolves basically set this game up for Hoya to win cleared. Note again that I say CONSIDER, as in if one of the above scenarios happens you should read and judge his entire game and decide if you think that this scenario is the MOST LIKELY possibility - voting Hoya just because he "should be dead" would be just as bad if not worse than just sponging his vote because he's "100% cleared".

Anyways, I realize this is a long post to talk about a very low probability event here, but I find that winning these games is often best done by considering all possibilities no matter how unlikely they seem at the time.

Thoughts on my post Herbie? Or rather, thought on the theory that xx sniping dean is because he thinks he is already as good as outed. I kind of like that one because it gives something to reread for: xx is a wolf seerish posts. I know I have one on day two, but that doesn't mean it is the only one.

I don't know - I feel like what you're talking about is probably a level or two above where we really need to be. XX probably did what he did because he decided that it was the only shot for the wolves to get Dean lynched because if HiFi flipped wolf then Dean's basically clear. Given the fact that so far the people who were kinda "thread consensus cleared" - Boj, Zaya, Sun - have all been villagers it's possibly that wolves realized they were in trouble of running short of possible mislynches even that early in the game. Keep in mind that I haven't had time to go back and really pore through all that stuff, because with an idea like you're talking about it's often the little details that make the difference between plausible theory and completely meaningless red herring.

Dean had a lot of people calling him wolfy, myself included. Xx sniping there just seems suicidal, so why do it? Trading a mislynch for an easy wolf lynch on day two seems a bit dubious. Was sun consensus cleared then? I certainly didn't have him as cleared, though boj and zaya I had as strong villa read.

But I am certainly biased here because it fits so nicely from my perspective. The explanation I had before of getting two mislynches (dean and supine) certainly has merit. I'll look for possible xx peeks anyway this weekend since it gives a focus to the reread.

I know I promised I was going to reread like Wednesday but I've been slammed at work this week, I really owe it to myself and the thread to actually reread this weekend. I'm not too worried since we keep lynching wolves but I'd like to actually solve the game before I die and I still feel like just assuming it's Vyk/J.D. through POE in my head probably isn't good enough.

Dead thread is dead.

im awake, all the high posters were killed lol

dead thread is dead. oh wait, already been said.

just bumping to keep off second page

I'll be back Sat night/Sunday if anyone actually wants to play lol

bump?

wow, really?

I'm rereading now, but long thread is long, and there doesn't appear to be much going on right now, so I just figure I'll take however long I need then post what I think when I'm done

But we can chat if you want, though I'm going to be going out soon

Doubt I'm gonna chat with my top wolf suspect. Well, maybe you're my second wolfiest suspect.

lol when did that happen?

And why exactly am I your second wolfiest suspect anyways?

If it comes down to you wanting to lynch me at some point I'm fairly certain that I'll be able to show pretty conclusively that I'm a villager here fwiw

vyk and you are pretty clear wolves imo, doubt anyone in this game disagrees with that assessment.

I'd be willing to bet quite a few people in this game disagree with that assessment, including the wolves

I do agree about Vyk fwiw, and nothing I've read so far has changed my opinion on that

How do you get to Herbie anarchist? Process of elimination or is there something else that makes you think he's a wolf? (It sounds like the latter)

Tone throughout the game. Re-read the last few pages, he sounds super suspicious. Obviously I could be wrong though.

Gonna be an interesting end game. I am pretty positive vyk is a wolf, but after that I have three players on my list who I think could still be the last wolf.

Care to share, lol?

Vyk,

I totally think you are a wolf, but this is a great post as a wolf or a villager when you think there is a strong (or definite) chance you are getting lynched. Good tone, good content.

Where is JD btw? He's been posting a lot in another game so i know he's not afk

oddly, the exact three Vyk has.

Supine has that claim villager streak / may have been a peek, etc. thing.

I have decided that you just sound wolfy by nature. If it comes down to a final three with both of us I am sure I will re-evaluate and agonize, but I just can't see you doing some of the things you have done as a wolf first game out, no matter how many games you have read.

Which leaves UAW, JD, and Herbie.

Hoya is saying he thinks JD is villa. Herbie I really don't want to be a wolf because the thoughts he is posting are so similar to mine, but I cannot rule him out (and I get into sick leveling games in my head). UAW I can't remember if I ever had a case on other than I never can remember anything he has done in the game. (I have a hard time recalling a lot about JD, too, other than his wife had baby number 3, but at least Hoya remembers some stuff).