X-Men: First Class Slow Vanilla Game Thread
07-27-2011
, 06:01 PM
This is one reason Hoya... I don't see him thinking this way as a wolf. He's basically saying, hey let's clear 6 people. As a wolf you can't afford that.
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I suppose people have posted about all they are going to about Dean's peeks, so I'll go ahead and tell you what I think, and why I waited.
The reason I wanted to wait before posting them is because I feel pretty strongly that we are just never going to know who Dean peeked and who Dean didn't peek. I went through his posts several times and I'm still not completely convinced he didn't actually peek me villa n0, though I'm not sure whether he'd actually peek me or not (I realize this sounds weird, but there's meta here, and I wouldn't expect Dean to play seer in a straightforward manner). From what I've seen there's like 5-6 possible peeks, and this is assuming he even felt the need to share his peeks at all since he obviously didn't think he was going to die when he did and Dean is the sort who would hold his peeks close to the vest in hopes of avoiding nightkill. You can make an argument that this person or that person is definitely a peek, and this person or that person is definitely not the peek, but I think you'd be lying if you can say with certainty that they were actually the peek. This also isn't like a nightkill in that the wolves were obviously killing him based on certain peeks he left ITT. It's possible here that a person that seems most likely to be a "peeked villager" is actually a wolf.
Because of this I feel like the best we can do is think of this in terms of percentages. Dean may have peeked Supine villa 30% of the time, or UAW villa 40% of the time, or HiFi wolf 20% of the time (later dithering notwithstanding, it's still not impossible, because of what I said earlier).
From what I've seen I feel like all of Zaya, Boj, Hoya, Sun, UAW, and Supine deserve some % of "peeked villa" credit (leaving myself out because I really don't think it matters whether he peeked me or not). I also think HiFi gets some "peeked wolf" credit here, even though she probably wasn't peeked wolf.
What this means in terms of the game is that I feel like we're now going to pretty much live and die by Dean's reads. This is easier than normal for me to accept because I actually like pretty much all of Dean's reads - out of all the people I just listed as getting peeked villa cred the only one that I think is even reasonably likely to be a wolf is Supine, and imo Supine can only be a wolf here if HiFi is also a wolf.
Next I'll discuss why we need to lynch HiFi today although this seems to be pretty well accepted by everyone. It's important to go through the logic though, because it will help us solve the game once HiFi's role is revealed.
The reason I wanted to wait before posting them is because I feel pretty strongly that we are just never going to know who Dean peeked and who Dean didn't peek. I went through his posts several times and I'm still not completely convinced he didn't actually peek me villa n0, though I'm not sure whether he'd actually peek me or not (I realize this sounds weird, but there's meta here, and I wouldn't expect Dean to play seer in a straightforward manner). From what I've seen there's like 5-6 possible peeks, and this is assuming he even felt the need to share his peeks at all since he obviously didn't think he was going to die when he did and Dean is the sort who would hold his peeks close to the vest in hopes of avoiding nightkill. You can make an argument that this person or that person is definitely a peek, and this person or that person is definitely not the peek, but I think you'd be lying if you can say with certainty that they were actually the peek. This also isn't like a nightkill in that the wolves were obviously killing him based on certain peeks he left ITT. It's possible here that a person that seems most likely to be a "peeked villager" is actually a wolf.
Because of this I feel like the best we can do is think of this in terms of percentages. Dean may have peeked Supine villa 30% of the time, or UAW villa 40% of the time, or HiFi wolf 20% of the time (later dithering notwithstanding, it's still not impossible, because of what I said earlier).
From what I've seen I feel like all of Zaya, Boj, Hoya, Sun, UAW, and Supine deserve some % of "peeked villa" credit (leaving myself out because I really don't think it matters whether he peeked me or not). I also think HiFi gets some "peeked wolf" credit here, even though she probably wasn't peeked wolf.
What this means in terms of the game is that I feel like we're now going to pretty much live and die by Dean's reads. This is easier than normal for me to accept because I actually like pretty much all of Dean's reads - out of all the people I just listed as getting peeked villa cred the only one that I think is even reasonably likely to be a wolf is Supine, and imo Supine can only be a wolf here if HiFi is also a wolf.
Next I'll discuss why we need to lynch HiFi today although this seems to be pretty well accepted by everyone. It's important to go through the logic though, because it will help us solve the game once HiFi's role is revealed.
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Now about HiFi - normally I am not a huge advocate of resolving wagons for information because I feel like people don't know how to use the information that they get (myself included). In this case, however, there are several people whose roles I believe depend heavily on HiFi's role here and should obviously never be lynched before she is. The first is Supine - him soft claiming seer to push Dean yesterday looks terrible on first blush because Dean came up seer, but it only makes sense for him to do something like that as a wolf if HiFi is also a wolf. I can't envision a situation where Supine does something like that as a wolf knowing how bad he would look when Dean flips villa just to mislynch him over another villager. Combined with his seer peeked % I feel HiFi flipping village would just about clear him. HiFi flipping wolf doesn't necessarily mean Supine is a wolf, but it would at least make it reasonable to discuss the possibility.
XXSooted is another - his late vote switch looks so shady and weird that he's really really unlikely to do that as a wolf if HiFi is a villager.
Then there's the other group of people who weren't "cleared" by Dean and didn't do anything particularly polarizing at yesterday's EOD, many of whom voted for HiFi yesterday. Fnord, JD, Vyk, anarchist all fall into this group I believe. If HiFi flips villager then they are all far more likely to be wolves simply because Sooted and Supine are far more likely to villagers. If HiFi flips wolf then they are much clearer for the opposite reason.
XXSooted is another - his late vote switch looks so shady and weird that he's really really unlikely to do that as a wolf if HiFi is a villager.
Then there's the other group of people who weren't "cleared" by Dean and didn't do anything particularly polarizing at yesterday's EOD, many of whom voted for HiFi yesterday. Fnord, JD, Vyk, anarchist all fall into this group I believe. If HiFi flips villager then they are all far more likely to be wolves simply because Sooted and Supine are far more likely to villagers. If HiFi flips wolf then they are much clearer for the opposite reason.
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I'm ok with this, I just know he didn't peek me. So I thought we'd be better off trying to figure out who he did peek. Because if it is UAW/Supine, that is bonus with Supine getting heat. And if he doesn't die when he's supposed to, yeah fine. But until then I'm thinking they are peeked. The rest I already had cleared, so that works out anyway 
I'm ok with this, I just know he didn't peek me. So I thought we'd be better off trying to figure out who he did peek. Because if it is UAW/Supine, that is bonus with Supine getting heat. And if he doesn't die when he's supposed to, yeah fine. But until then I'm thinking they are peeked. The rest I already had cleared, so that works out anyway
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And see this is more or less where I'm at as well - if Dean's village list had like my 2 or 3 biggest wolf suspects on it then I'm obviously going to be more skeptical, but I feel like in all of these cases except maybe Supine the possibility that they were peeked village just augments my own belief that they are actually villagers
The main problem I have with the Supine/UAW theory is that I don't really think he'd peek Supine because I think he thinks he can read Supine, and I don't necessarily suspect that he'd be even that straightforward about his peeks given the heat he was getting. I'm convinced he thought he was going to live for a while and would be able to claim before he was nightkilled, so there's really little incentive for him to leave peek hints at all.
The main problem I have with the Supine/UAW theory is that I don't really think he'd peek Supine because I think he thinks he can read Supine, and I don't necessarily suspect that he'd be even that straightforward about his peeks given the heat he was getting. I'm convinced he thought he was going to live for a while and would be able to claim before he was nightkilled, so there's really little incentive for him to leave peek hints at all.
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Zaya one more thing I saw when reading the thread - I just don't believe Anarchist is a wolf here. He's made several posts this game that I just cannot fathom a total newbie making as a wolf, I don't care how many games he's read or how much he's followed things. I've also never seen a total newbie wolf post as much as he has here. I include him in my analysis as a wolf possibility only to the extent that if HiFi flips villa I'm basically out of wolf suspects and have nfi who the wolves could even be