Did some more Dean re-reading, but 1) he confuses the hell out of my, 2) Zayana has quoted most of the relevant posts already.

I may try it again tomorrow with the player list, and try POE of who the peeks arent, might be easier.

I probably wont be around EOD, its Tuesday, I never am on Tuesdays.

Hifi to make sure I got my vote in.

miss me already?

my only posts in the risk thread have been short and sweet as I have been short on time today

oh you are in Jersey? sorry, it's my least fave place in the US... personal reasons...

I know, there were 2, it's not like you posted a ton. 3 posts in 2+2 all day... did I sound worried?

if i lived in connecticut, on the other hand, that'd be awesome

Okay time for some soul reads

We pushed 3 v/v/v wagons on d1, lynched the seer on d2, and are quietly on our way to unanimously lynching Hifi today

I bet you good money that the wolves are sitting in wolf chat and laughing their asses off as we continue to implode unassisted

The majority of your wolf candidates can be found among the regulars who have not contributed or posted as much as they normally would have by now. Given the increasingly deteriorating situation of the village and its chances for victory, their egos would be dying to attempt to resurrect what chances the village has here back from the dead, instead of laying low and staying quiet while observing the carnage from the comfort and safety of their inactivity

wat

Who would they be?

I went to the player list after last night's NK and was planning to bold some names who might be good wolf candidates as per my theory, but I found myself bolding over half the names still in the game. We are simply not getting enough info from a lot of the players left in the game, who, whether by strategy or by poor schedule, are depriving the village from an opportunity to turn this game around. However, I am not sure how much the fact that this is a slow game and that there is no lynch tonight has to do with it, although the lack of viable posts has been lacking every day before this one as well.

The matter remains that if all the regulars show up tomorrow and advocate to push Hifi as expected, whether she is or isn't a wolf at this point, we are no better off than we started.

I suppose people have posted about all they are going to about Dean's peeks, so I'll go ahead and tell you what I think, and why I waited.

The reason I wanted to wait before posting them is because I feel pretty strongly that we are just never going to know who Dean peeked and who Dean didn't peek. I went through his posts several times and I'm still not completely convinced he didn't actually peek me villa n0, though I'm not sure whether he'd actually peek me or not (I realize this sounds weird, but there's meta here, and I wouldn't expect Dean to play seer in a straightforward manner). From what I've seen there's like 5-6 possible peeks, and this is assuming he even felt the need to share his peeks at all since he obviously didn't think he was going to die when he did and Dean is the sort who would hold his peeks close to the vest in hopes of avoiding nightkill. You can make an argument that this person or that person is definitely a peek, and this person or that person is definitely not the peek, but I think you'd be lying if you can say with certainty that they were actually the peek. This also isn't like a nightkill in that the wolves were obviously killing him based on certain peeks he left ITT. It's possible here that a person that seems most likely to be a "peeked villager" is actually a wolf.

Because of this I feel like the best we can do is think of this in terms of percentages. Dean may have peeked Supine villa 30% of the time, or UAW villa 40% of the time, or HiFi wolf 20% of the time (later dithering notwithstanding, it's still not impossible, because of what I said earlier).

From what I've seen I feel like all of Zaya, Boj, Hoya, Sun, UAW, and Supine deserve some % of "peeked villa" credit (leaving myself out because I really don't think it matters whether he peeked me or not). I also think HiFi gets some "peeked wolf" credit here, even though she probably wasn't peeked wolf.

What this means in terms of the game is that I feel like we're now going to pretty much live and die by Dean's reads. This is easier than normal for me to accept because I actually like pretty much all of Dean's reads - out of all the people I just listed as getting peeked villa cred the only one that I think is even reasonably likely to be a wolf is Supine, and imo Supine can only be a wolf here if HiFi is also a wolf.

Next I'll discuss why we need to lynch HiFi today although this seems to be pretty well accepted by everyone. It's important to go through the logic though, because it will help us solve the game once HiFi's role is revealed.

I'm ok with this, I just know he didn't peek me. So I thought we'd be better off trying to figure out who he did peek. Because if it is UAW/Supine, that is bonus with Supine getting heat. And if he doesn't die when he's supposed to, yeah fine. But until then I'm thinking they are peeked. The rest I already had cleared, so that works out anyway

I bold over half the list when clearing people ww is easier that way imo

Now about HiFi - normally I am not a huge advocate of resolving wagons for information because I feel like people don't know how to use the information that they get (myself included). In this case, however, there are several people whose roles I believe depend heavily on HiFi's role here and should obviously never be lynched before she is. The first is Supine - him soft claiming seer to push Dean yesterday looks terrible on first blush because Dean came up seer, but it only makes sense for him to do something like that as a wolf if HiFi is also a wolf. I can't envision a situation where Supine does something like that as a wolf knowing how bad he would look when Dean flips villa just to mislynch him over another villager. Combined with his seer peeked % I feel HiFi flipping village would just about clear him. HiFi flipping wolf doesn't necessarily mean Supine is a wolf, but it would at least make it reasonable to discuss the possibility.

XXSooted is another - his late vote switch looks so shady and weird that he's really really unlikely to do that as a wolf if HiFi is a villager.

Then there's the other group of people who weren't "cleared" by Dean and didn't do anything particularly polarizing at yesterday's EOD, many of whom voted for HiFi yesterday. Fnord, JD, Vyk, anarchist all fall into this group I believe. If HiFi flips villager then they are all far more likely to be wolves simply because Sooted and Supine are far more likely to villagers. If HiFi flips wolf then they are much clearer for the opposite reason.

And see this is more or less where I'm at as well - if Dean's village list had like my 2 or 3 biggest wolf suspects on it then I'm obviously going to be more skeptical, but I feel like in all of these cases except maybe Supine the possibility that they were peeked village just augments my own belief that they are actually villagers

The main problem I have with the Supine/UAW theory is that I don't really think he'd peek Supine because I think he thinks he can read Supine, and I don't necessarily suspect that he'd be even that straightforward about his peeks given the heat he was getting. I'm convinced he thought he was going to live for a while and would be able to claim before he was nightkilled, so there's really little incentive for him to leave peek hints at all.

Zaya one more thing I saw when reading the thread - I just don't believe Anarchist is a wolf here. He's made several posts this game that I just cannot fathom a total newbie making as a wolf, I don't care how many games he's read or how much he's followed things. I've also never seen a total newbie wolf post as much as he has here. I include him in my analysis as a wolf possibility only to the extent that if HiFi flips villa I'm basically out of wolf suspects and have nfi who the wolves could even be

Yeah I agree, it's also incentive for me to proceed this way because
if we agree supine/uaw are villa peeks, the wolves go after them first if they are both villa's... and I am alive a few more days If we don't agree on peeks, I'm dead tonight in all likelihood. Because I'm clear as heck, plus villa and they can argue I'm peeked as long as I'm not here to object. I mean really, I think if I don't come in here this morning saying I'm not peeked I'm pretty sure most of the village and the wolves assume Nut/Zay... which just isn't true... and Supine gets lynched even though he might be peeked villa. Just my thoughts

I'm ok with that for now and he does have a TON of posts, but like 95% of them are no content, so it's not like it would be hard to do. I've thought he was villa most of the game, but rereading Sunday he looked terrible... and his reading Dean but having zero conclusions felt disingenuous to me this morning.

The main thing to remember with Anarchist is that it's literally his first game ever and he just came in and seemed like he was posting whatever came to his mind. I'll be stunned if he's a wolf here because I've literally never seen newbie wolf post like this in his first game.

true true... I should have trusted my initial instinct on him... He can go back on my village list...

Got any good words for vyk?

Only thing that really stuck out to me about Vyk was the fact that he and Supine both did weird sort of seer things that had Dean as a wolf yesterday. I feel like it's almost impossible that they would do that as w/w because it's just too similar, even though they did it in different ways. So if one of Vyk/Supine flips wolf I feel like you can pretty much clear the other one.

I'm lazy - do you remember if Vyk was a wolf or a villager in that noob mason game?

wolf

That worries me then, because I was going to say that I think he's probably the same role here as he was there.

yeah I couldn't talk about it earlier in the game... and it was funny though because as soon as the game was over he told me I could compare them, but I already knew his role in the other and had deduced he was wolf here having already compared him there. So yeah. He still isn't making villagery posts... they are all posts a wolf could make easily... mechanics and Vyk-centered... he gives lists but never any reasons for his thoughts... lists are easy

I feel like this is part of it, but it's a kind of defensive Vyk-centered. He seems very concerned with what people think about his role, and he did in the noob game as well iirc. When I've seen him as a villa he has been far less concerned with what other people think of him, even if he tends to be somewhat Vyk centered there as well.

Thinking about it I think the Vyk centered may just be how he plays

Anyways much as I enjoy chatting with you my dear I really do need to get some sleep as I did not nap today and have to work in the morning.

u can sleep when youre dead tho