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07-07-2009 , 12:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jennifer Garner
Wolves have 2 or 3 mislynches left...fpsing the LL nk implicates both Aries and I. If we both are villagers, which is kinda what I'm leaning towards right now, then wolves will either win or be left with 1 needed mislynch.
They have 3, which is kinda important. But see my psot where you and I can be w/v. (Obv you can make the same argument back at me.) If one of us is lynched as villa, what is going to happen to the perception of the other?
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07-07-2009 , 12:07 PM
JG, you still haven't explained

1) How the kill implicates me or FCBL (elaborate on process of elimination)
2) How that process led you to eliminate OTI or bitchibee.
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07-07-2009 , 12:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by well named
Dead villagers still win with the village.

You are making a list with the intention of saying we should lynch from this list and only this list until the game is over. That's the point of the list. Sometimes even as a villager you have to recognize that unless you manage to do something pretty cool you almost have to be lynched. I've been in that spot a few times. In those cases if I'm making a list like that I pretty much always put myself on it, because that's what the list is for. If you were just making a "this is who I think the wolves are" list than I would excuse you.

That said I don't think leaving yourself off it is too wolfy, not everyone thinks this way, but it is wrong.
pah-lease...if I had put myself on the list of people to lynch I would have 5 other people screaming "ZOMG HE PUT HIMSELF ON A WOLF LIST ZOMG HE'S A WOLF HE JUST ADMITTED IT"

That said, I understand what you're saying, and I do realize that I may need to be lynched at some point this game, but I hope that I don't. I think you would realize that the chances of wolves fpsing this nk to get mislynches is way higher than actually seer hunting.
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07-07-2009 , 12:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FCBLComish
Well, We can start with

Zurvan

and see where it goes from there.
This actually might be a pretty good solution.
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07-07-2009 , 12:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AriesRam

And this whole theory rests on the belief that dustin is not seer. Granted, he is not dead yet, but I think there is almost no chance that the "real seer" has not countered yet.
If you are the real seer and don't have a bunch of peeks you should wait. I'm pretty sure my reads are right and they'll have to kill me tonight

If you have 2 wolves just come out


j/k obviously i'm the real seer

maybe
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07-07-2009 , 12:08 PM
JG: I actually said "I don't look at interactions until a wolf is dead"

I was a little occupied last night, trying to deflect FCBL's lies about me. It's a little irritating that he goes after me EVERY SINGLE game, and in order to keep up that streak he's now making **** up, and when it's pointed out he's wrong, he just twists the facts to fit his predetermined conclusion
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07-07-2009 , 12:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by well named
This is another wolfy thing about JG's argument. It seems to me that anyone can see that the night kill has something to say about Zurvan, bitchibee, aries, and JG. The reason is that zurvan and bitchibee were on dustin's lynch list, and given that there has been a certaina mount of heat for all of them, if dustin dies seer last night it is likely that they would have continued to get heat today, especially zurvan. So one level of interpretation is that the night kill was a longshot effort to distract attention from them.

JG and Aries are obviously the other more basic level, where the kill was a straight seer hunt where one of those is a wolf.

Now JG did vote for zurvan, which makes sense for him as a villager, if he was reasoning through the levels (I'm a villager, therefore it must be the other interpretation is correct), but he doesn't focus on zurvan, that vote is more of an afterthought. The post is about me and FCBL supposedly being implicated by the night kill, which makes no sense.

JG asked what incentive he would have to make that kill and draw attention to himself. Well, here's another level. Let's say zurvan and JG are both wolves, and lets say there is no particularly clear wolf. In this case the best reason for FPS'ing the kill is that perhaps it will allow _some_ wolf to get clear, because it looks quite strongly that if they just take the usual path they are all going to be on the block, and there's not enough unclear villagers to win. FPS'ing the kill may guarantee that some wolf gets lynched today, but if they can use it to cast suspicion on some other villagers or partially clear a wolf, it might be the only chance.

Obviously that story depends on a lot of assumptions, but everything about JG's post fits. The zurvan vote is bussing, but he's not trying too hard. Instead by going after me and FCBL he is trying to cast suspicion on some villagers.
I wanted to make a (shorter) post to the effect of: Zurvan was likely to be a prime canidate for lynching today. Now all the attention is on me/jen. That is very fortunate for Zurv if he is a wolf.

Vote Zurvan.
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07-07-2009 , 12:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by well named
JG, you still haven't explained

1) How the kill implicates me or FCBL (elaborate on process of elimination)
2) How that process led you to eliminate OTI or bitchibee.
2) I never eliminated OTI or bitchibee...wtf are you talking about? Quit making **** up
1) It implicates you or FCBL (moreso FCBL) because he's been screaming about how he's clear from the Dudd(?) nk seer-hunt w/e it was and now he chooses to implicate 2 more players, which almost seals it for the wolves. You I don't remember whether are "clear" from seerhunt, but you definitely haven't been screaming about it. That said, you've been making up a lot of **** today about what I've done with my lists and that strikes a nerve with me
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07-07-2009 , 12:11 PM
zurvan

I don't really like JG's posts today but this is still the best option. I don't think it's impossible for JG to bus icon and zurvan given the course of the game, and I can't understand how a villager could think I'm a wolf for the reasons he's stated, but zurvan is also like 99% wolf.
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07-07-2009 , 12:13 PM
Quote:
2) I never eliminated OTI or bitchibee...wtf are you talking about? Quit making **** up
If you are a villager my best advice is to take a deep breath and try to explain to me why you think the night kill or any other recent events makes me a wolf by "process of elimination"

Because I don't get it.

Also you did implicitly "eliminate" OTI and bitchi when you said that the kill implicates me and FCBL by process of elimination. DUCY?
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07-07-2009 , 12:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by well named
Dead villagers still win with the village.

You are making a list with the intention of saying we should lynch from this list and only this list until the game is over. That's the point of the list. Sometimes even as a villager you have to recognize that unless you manage to do something pretty cool you almost have to be lynched. I've been in that spot a few times. In those cases if I'm making a list like that I pretty much always put myself on it, because that's what the list is for. If you were just making a "this is who I think the wolves are" list than I would excuse you.

That said I don't think leaving yourself off it is too wolfy, not everyone thinks this way, but it is wrong.
This is being overly nitty here, WN. I can see your point, but I really dont like when villas lie down and take a lynch. I would never put myself on a have-to-be-lynched list, in any role (as I think my play today indicates).
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07-07-2009 , 12:14 PM
Villagers outthinking themselves itt
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07-07-2009 , 12:15 PM
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This is being overly nitty here, WN.
Well yeah, like I said I wouldn't lynch someone just for that. It was just an off-hand comment.
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07-07-2009 , 12:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Jennifer Garner
This is so disgusting...one or both of FCBL and WN is/are FPSing wolf(ves)

I know I'm going to be lynched now/soon so I really don't see myself trying too hard (especially with Wire game going on), but I'll leave y'all with my reads and will check back everyone once in a while to answer questions that anyone has for me.

If I had to choose a list of 6 to contain the last 5 wolves:
Zurvan
FCBL
WN
OTI
BB
Aries (although I think less likely to be Aries because I know I'm villa so if wolves were fpsing I think they're more likely to fps fully rather than partially)
Quote:
Originally Posted by well named
If you are a villager my best advice is to take a deep breath and try to explain to me why you think the night kill or any other recent events makes me a wolf by "process of elimination"

Because I don't get it.

Also you did implicitly "eliminate" OTI and bitchi when you said that the kill implicates me and FCBL by process of elimination. DUCY?
please explain your thought process cause ID(ont)CY
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07-07-2009 , 12:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BitchiBee
no it relies on the fact that the wolves thought luckay didn't counter. And what incentive did he have to counter?
When you are the only seer, and someone claims seer, what is your reaction? Is it to let that person skate? maybe, but judging from LL recent history, it is not his likely reaction. See VR's Arrows game. (LL was angel. 64 was being wagoned and close to lynch (as villa, no less) and claimed angel at the very end of the day. LL asked a question to 64 asking him to clarify his role. This (I imagine, havent heard a wolf chime in) was prettymuch a flashing red light saying "hey, 64 isnt angel, I am.") LL was then nk'ed. If LL made a post like that in this game, pleae point it out.
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07-07-2009 , 12:21 PM
Certainly.

-You start with two players who you say are implicated.

- You assert that you arrived at that conclusion by process of elimination.

- In order for the process to be one of elimination, it must have involved starting with a larger set of players (for example: all unpeeked players, assuming dustin is seer)

- Having started with that larger set, and finished with a smaller set, and given that you described the process as one of "elimination", than it seems perfectly reasonable to assume that all the players in the initial set who are not in the final set were eliminated for some reason, which has not been stated.

So in order to answer my question, you have to either

a) explain that one of my assumptions is wrong. I.e you didn't start with the list of unpeeked players (and if not, why not?)

b) explain that just because you only mentioned me and FCBL and called it a process of elimination, you really didn't actually eliminate the other players, you just thought FCBL and I were the most likely. In this case you can read my question as: Why are we the most likely? (Which was basically my first question, and the more important one)
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07-07-2009 , 12:22 PM
ffs, will it stop raining for half an hour or so so i can go to the pub? i want to play some darts. jesus, i may just need to shell out thirty quid for an eclipse pro and find that cupboard I have somewhere.

i am not convinced that zurvan is a better lynch than oti right now
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07-07-2009 , 12:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by well named
zurvan

I don't really like JG's posts today but this is still the best option. I don't think it's impossible for JG to bus icon and zurvan given the course of the game, and I can't understand how a villager could think I'm a wolf for the reasons he's stated, but zurvan is also like 99% wolf.
I dunno what JG exact argument is about you, he hasnt explained it well. But I will admit that, given how the wolves fps'ed the kill last night, the thought that they fps'ed the dudd kill did occur to me. What kinda blows that theory to hell is how villagery you have been.
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07-07-2009 , 12:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AriesRam
When you are the only seer, and someone claims seer, what is your reaction? Is it to let that person skate? maybe, but judging from LL recent history, it is not his likely reaction. See VR's Arrows game. (LL was angel. 64 was being wagoned and close to lynch (as villa, no less) and claimed angel at the very end of the day. LL asked a question to 64 asking him to clarify his role. This (I imagine, havent heard a wolf chime in) was prettymuch a flashing red light saying "hey, 64 isnt angel, I am.") LL was then nk'ed. If LL made a post like that in this game, pleae point it out.
Yeah, that's a pretty solid summary. Luckay totally gave it away. Of course, you'd have to think that if there's a wolf that was in that game, they'd think Luckay would patch that particular leak.
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07-07-2009 , 12:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour
ffs, will it stop raining for half an hour or so so i can go to the pub? i want to play some darts. jesus, i may just need to shell out thirty quid for an eclipse pro and find that cupboard I have somewhere.

i am not convinced that zurvan is a better lynch than oti right now
What is the case on oti? I know you have been on him most of the game, but I dont recall your reasons.
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07-07-2009 , 12:28 PM
[_] bitchibee --- jg
[_] browneyedgirl ---
[_] coordi ---
[_] dustin --- jg
[_] fcbl --- zurvan
[_] gtpitch --- jg
[4] jennifer --- zurvan
[_] luckay ---
[_] m1ke ---
[_] myrrth (wn) --- zurvan
[1] onthinice ---
[1] scrubbo (aries) --- zurvan
[_] sixfour --- oti
[_] the icon ---
[_] zomghax --- aries
[4] zurvan --- jg
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07-07-2009 , 12:28 PM
er, strat question here. if i'm counting the number of players left correctly, there's 14, and we're basically down to vanilla mechanics. if we are able to go no-lynch, when should we do so? considering we only really have two mislynches left this might be a fairly important question
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07-07-2009 , 12:29 PM
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Originally Posted by AriesRam
What is the case on oti? I know you have been on him most of the game, but I dont recall your reasons.
he was basically flooding the thread with irrelevant stuff at the end of d1, is more or less the only player calling me a wolf
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07-07-2009 , 12:31 PM
re: 1472, it's actually 16 players left, so three mislynches and a bit more time to play with, but theorywolf question still stands
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07-07-2009 , 12:33 PM
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Originally Posted by sixfour
er, strat question here. if i'm counting the number of players left correctly, there's 14, and we're basically down to vanilla mechanics. if we are able to go no-lynch, when should we do so? considering we only really have two mislynches left this might be a fairly important question
preferably when its 3-1

but also on 4-2
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