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Originally Posted by UncleDynamite
Even if bussing is not optimal in general, it's still optimal for me. Defending wolfy wolfbros is just too hard from my POV;
Is this optimal for your team though? the object of the game is not for UncleDynamite to survive to f3, it's for a wolf to survive to f3. (or two to f5 or whatever)
IMHO you need to consider the alternative scenarios.
You're pretty good IMO.
Let's assume that you do what you want to do, you maybe attack some packmates, you get credit, you attack some more packmates, whatever.
You live until d6 or something and 1 additional wolf was lynched because of you.
Now, let's say I'm on your wolf team and rant about not bussing from the second wolfchat is formed and stress the importance of just leaving your wolfbros alone unless villagers spot things; make villagers do the work or something. You decide that Felix's wrath would just be too much to bear, and obligingly do your thing when it comes to villagers but only defend wolves or leave them alone.
You live until d4 because you don't get as much credit. No additional wolves were lynched because of you.
Which is the better scenario for the wolf pack as a whole?
Given d4-d5-d6 we know you are lynched, the village only has to mislynch twice in that span to make it a better play. Villages absolutely love to mislynch. It shouldn't be difficult to replace that wolf you would have gotten lynched by pressuring or outright freelance bussing.
The analysis is, of course, much more complicated than that, but I think a first order assessment gives us a good picture.
If you are bussing purely to survive a few more days, it's probably not a good strategy.
Or maybe it is (assume a 13er game above!). Freelancing still isn't the optimal strategy. The optimal strategy is that you and the wolf team talk it out, figure out how you win, determine who is being bussed, who is bussing, and who is on the sidelines.
(This is a huge yet unexploited strength of 24 hour wolf chat imo - figuring this crap out in real time instead of night-by-night. If an awesome villager post changes your strategy 2 hours after daybreak and you weren't planning to bus, now you can talk it over and create a bus plan and have the bus victim make some wolfy posts early in the day and
create a natural progression for the bus drivers. With night chat only you either have to have really good chemistry to make that happen or the village takes advantage of you)
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it can also lead to unpleasant situations where it fails while outing half of your team.
I would argue that that's a personal problem. You're a smart guy and I'm sure you can figure out a way to post in which half your team isn't outed when you die.
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Of course, you need to be prepared for late game wolfing, which is grueling. But it's still easier than making up reasons for defending people that are howling.
(Have just skimmed Felix's post; might read it later, but it probs won't change my mind).