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Werewolf LC Thread Werewolf LC Thread

09-26-2013 , 03:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by UncleDynamite
Even if bussing is not optimal in general, it's still optimal for me. Defending wolfy wolfbros is just too hard from my POV;
Is this optimal for your team though? the object of the game is not for UncleDynamite to survive to f3, it's for a wolf to survive to f3. (or two to f5 or whatever)

IMHO you need to consider the alternative scenarios.

You're pretty good IMO.

Let's assume that you do what you want to do, you maybe attack some packmates, you get credit, you attack some more packmates, whatever.

You live until d6 or something and 1 additional wolf was lynched because of you.

Now, let's say I'm on your wolf team and rant about not bussing from the second wolfchat is formed and stress the importance of just leaving your wolfbros alone unless villagers spot things; make villagers do the work or something. You decide that Felix's wrath would just be too much to bear, and obligingly do your thing when it comes to villagers but only defend wolves or leave them alone.

You live until d4 because you don't get as much credit. No additional wolves were lynched because of you.

Which is the better scenario for the wolf pack as a whole?

Given d4-d5-d6 we know you are lynched, the village only has to mislynch twice in that span to make it a better play. Villages absolutely love to mislynch. It shouldn't be difficult to replace that wolf you would have gotten lynched by pressuring or outright freelance bussing.

The analysis is, of course, much more complicated than that, but I think a first order assessment gives us a good picture. If you are bussing purely to survive a few more days, it's probably not a good strategy.

Or maybe it is (assume a 13er game above!). Freelancing still isn't the optimal strategy. The optimal strategy is that you and the wolf team talk it out, figure out how you win, determine who is being bussed, who is bussing, and who is on the sidelines.

(This is a huge yet unexploited strength of 24 hour wolf chat imo - figuring this crap out in real time instead of night-by-night. If an awesome villager post changes your strategy 2 hours after daybreak and you weren't planning to bus, now you can talk it over and create a bus plan and have the bus victim make some wolfy posts early in the day and create a natural progression for the bus drivers. With night chat only you either have to have really good chemistry to make that happen or the village takes advantage of you)


Quote:
it can also lead to unpleasant situations where it fails while outing half of your team.
I would argue that that's a personal problem. You're a smart guy and I'm sure you can figure out a way to post in which half your team isn't outed when you die.

Quote:
Of course, you need to be prepared for late game wolfing, which is grueling. But it's still easier than making up reasons for defending people that are howling.

(Have just skimmed Felix's post; might read it later, but it probs won't change my mind).
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09-26-2013 , 03:12 AM
jesus my posts seems shorter in the compose box than they do on the screen
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09-26-2013 , 03:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KruZe
Final Grievance Thread Post Counts

RIP


Who Posted?
Total Posts: 16,716

Crossnerd 682
Monkey Banana 609
metsandfinsfan 605
seems legit
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09-26-2013 , 03:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CPHoya
there needs to be some bussing in most game, the part that's interesting is who busses who when and how, which requires the team to determine who is supposed to win at end game
This, of course, would be ideal. However, I have seldom seen an organised wolfchat that does a lot of deep strategy planning. Most of the time, I've seen a lot of people slank even in wolfchat or try to guess the seer (sadly, this happened to me in a couple of occasions).

My last wolf game was a pleasant exception. Half of our team got murdered in the first 3 days, but the rest of us managed to talk a lot and discuss a lot of possible scenarios for the next few days. We had a blast.
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09-26-2013 , 03:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CPHoya
there needs to be some bussing in most game, the part that's interesting is who busses who when and how, which requires the team to determine who is supposed to win at end game
that's pretty much what I'm saying

except I think the "who busses who when and how" part is actually really interesting and worth discussing

of all those words in my last 2 posts I'd say 80% discuss that phrase
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09-26-2013 , 03:16 AM
You haven't really enjoyed a wolf win until you win a game by bombarding villager after villager while the entire wolf team hard defends each other. The village butthurt in post game after those wins are the most satisfying aspects of wolfing.

See: Time Travel Mash (sometimes even the mod is pissed off that the village didn't lynch you guys!)
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09-26-2013 , 03:18 AM
So this is just the pub mostly for people who don't post in the pub? Cool.
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09-26-2013 , 03:20 AM
It appears to be a low content thread centered around werewolf because the frequent pubbers get all rustled when you try to talk werewolf in the puzzles and other games low content thread.
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09-26-2013 , 03:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by UncleDynamite
This, of course, would be ideal. However, I have seldom seen an organised wolfchat that does a lot of deep strategy planning.
People wonder why wolves win less than they should.

Going on record with a BRAG that I did a pretty good job of bullying Lannister-chat into playing optimally in Game of Thrones 2 and I think we batted well ahead of equity on all days given some things beyond our control didn't go our way. (PEEK HOYA WOLF LYNCH WHO HE SAYS, etc.)

And I'm an absolutely terrible leader/manager (IRL I avoid those jobs, I actually made a major career decision - getting out of the Air Force where I had a job I liked - because the course would lead to being in a leadership/management position). And I'm not very good at figuring out the best path to victory. And... blah blah blah I'm not good at a lot of things, but I truly believe that enforcing a no-bussing no-bad-mouthing policy for the first few days really helped our team (and I think we were favored to win before bad beats started happening).

This is getting too long.

Point is that if a terribly managed wolf team with a terrible wolf managing can get pretty far with a rational-bussing policy, a well-managed wolf team with a good wolf managing should own souls.
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09-26-2013 , 03:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monkey Banana
So this is just the pub mostly for people who don't post in the pub? Cool.
we have not yet discussed beer or Tailor Slow
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09-26-2013 , 03:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KruZe
Final Grievance Thread Post Counts

Crossnerd 682
Monkey Banana 609
metsandfinsfan 605

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09-26-2013 , 03:26 AM
More optimal is being 33%, 33, 33

Bus partners
Ignore partners
Defend partners

Either within a single game, or spread across several games (optimal)

That way you cannot be read based on meta. Flimsy meta anyway.
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09-26-2013 , 03:26 AM
Bussing:

It's situational.

As is everything else in WW.
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09-26-2013 , 03:27 AM
Of course, a lot of people don't want to be bussed. The wolf I bussed on day1 (vaya) was pretty upset about it (and he was right, because he wasn't doing bad at all). Anarchist was also upset about getting bussed on day2 (but Annie had to die, no doubt about it).

I'm always going to have a miserable time if I rand wolf in a team with someone like TheDean1, VarianceMinefield or CalledDownLight.
On the flipside, if I have to work with someone who shares my philosophy towards wolfin g (like No Lynches in this game) we're going to have fun.

I listened to a no-bus request during my last game, not going to do it anymore.

I am perfectly fine trying to mislynch villagers, but I do it with more confidence if I have some credit to spend.
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09-26-2013 , 03:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy
Maybe its not so much stupid as it is unexpected.

If things don't turn out the way your opponents expect, you can win more games.
why would something that happens all the time be unexpected?
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09-26-2013 , 03:30 AM
I didn't realize Monkey Banana posted so much there.

He sure is forgettable.
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09-26-2013 , 03:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimHalpert
You haven't really enjoyed a wolf win until you win a game by bombarding villager after villager while the entire wolf team hard defends each other. The village butthurt in post game after those wins are the most satisfying aspects of wolfing.

See: Time Travel Mash (sometimes even the mod is pissed off that the village didn't lynch you guys!)
I have a game when we swept the village in a vanilla.
This one was way more satisfying. Of course, the fact that one of my bros in that game was McAvoy might have influenced things a bit.
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09-26-2013 , 03:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Moocher
Bussing:

It's situational.

As is everything else in WW.
You're supposed to give an anecdote about how one time you (bussed/didn't bus) and it (worked/didn't work) to show that your method is correct. Then argue with others that have an anecdote of their own which goes against your conclusion for 250 posts until one of you loses your will to continue. The other is declared the winner on the topic then we move to the next.

Don't you know how this works?
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09-26-2013 , 03:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sun Tzu
why would something that happens all the time be unexpected?
Bussing several wolves should happen often in a game with 4+ wolves, yet people seemed to react with shock and surprise that my top candidates for wolf in the recent 10k game were the guys who had lynched the most wolves, two out of three of them being wolf, one I had said to lynch at f3 since basically d3 and said to peek if you don't peek me all game, and I said to peek from the cleared pile.

Shock and surprise, but it's basically a level 2 wolf strategy- bus more than the bare minimum.

I don't know why it was such a hard concept for folks. If it happens all the time from wolves, why was it used as a defense?

I lynched more wolves than you is a wolfy alibi.
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09-26-2013 , 03:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gabethebabe
wow this is horrific

If you are an obvious villager when you are one and an obvious wolf when you are one means you are lacking some necessary ww skills to be a good overall player

But maybe you just want to be a good villager.
I'm saying a villager shouldn't try to be hard to read

how is that horrific?

tell me how being hard to read helps you win as a villager
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09-26-2013 , 03:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimHalpert
You're supposed to give an anecdote about how one time you (bussed/didn't bus) and it (worked/didn't work) to show that your method is correct. Then argue with others that have an anecdote of their own which goes against your conclusion for 250 posts until one of you loses your will to continue. The other is declared the winner on the topic then we move to the next.

Don't you know how this works?
There are no winners in these threads old boy.
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09-26-2013 , 03:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy
Bussing several wolves should happen often in a game with 4+ wolves, yet people seemed to react with shock and surprise that my top candidates for wolf in the recent 10k game were the guys who had lynched the most wolves, two out of three of them being wolf, one I had said to lynch at f3 since basically d3 and said to peek if you don't peek me all game, and I said to peek from the cleared pile.

Shock and surprise, but it's basically a level 2 wolf strategy- bus more than the bare minimum.

I don't know why it was such a hard concept for folks. If it happens all the time from wolves, why was it used as a defense?
because people are stupid

Quote:
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy
I lynched more wolves than you is a wolfy alibi.
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09-26-2013 , 03:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Moocher
There are no winners in these threads old boy.
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09-26-2013 , 03:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gabethebabe
what up with the mishmash fatigue?

MtG II with 42 players was below all expectations. TBATM mishmash is barely half full. SE isn't running games anymore.
this

stop posting itt and join next game
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09-26-2013 , 03:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CPHoya
This is a settled thing, your village game supports your wolf game by making it more expensive to lynch you. When you're a wolf all you need to do is live up to the standard that is applied to you as a villager. Since no one is good enough for that standard to be too detrimental to their team as a wolf - since everyone is wrong a lot as a villager - there's no reason to dilute your village game.

In fact, the better your village game the better your wolf game unless you are one of the subset of players who "cannot lie" or "hate wolfing" or find it stressful, which reduces post quality and quantity.
this

I don't have to give up anything at all from my villager game to be considered unreadable by almost everyone
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