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Old 04-06-2006, 11:08 AM   #251
Nicholasp27
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Re: WEREWOLF 1

um, pudley didn't say to see you; he said to see piz...he said that if jba and andrew are wolves, u may be one as well....u may not be, but the odds u are are >random person, thus it's not a 'random lynching' so we hopefully aren't 'screwed'
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Old 04-06-2006, 11:09 AM   #252
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Re: WEREWOLF 1

I think we might be if the seer doesn't make some quality choices and tells us so the angel can protect him.
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Old 04-06-2006, 11:10 AM   #253
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Re: WEREWOLF 1

If we are wrong in the jba line of thinking we will be in a world of hurt. Where is the rest of the village? They need to be heard.

Gorie -- This is fantastic. Next time you should do this based on location. It may take 8 hours to cycle through a vote with the different time zones here. Having all-Europe or all Americas separate games would probably go quicker. Maybe someone else can mod one to take the load off of you.
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Old 04-06-2006, 11:10 AM   #254
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Re: WEREWOLF 1

At the risk of associating myself with the jba-Andrew-nation group, I don't see how nation got pulled into this. I'm not getting the wolf vibe from his posts at all.
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Old 04-06-2006, 11:11 AM   #255
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Re: WEREWOLF 1

the seer can make bad choices and that helps as well

the only thing the seer can mess up is not telling us what he/she knows before he/she is eaten/lynched...luckily they should know if they are gonna be lynched, but the wolves may get lucky and eat the seer before they tell us their info...well, the seer can also mess up by coming out too early...if seer doesn't have 2 wolves, then don't come out until later in the game, unless likely target of wolves/villagers

if the seer sees some wolves and outs themselves and the angel then protects the seer, that'd be perfect...then we'd get info each night until the angel is found by dumb luck by the wolves
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Old 04-06-2006, 11:11 AM   #256
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Re: WEREWOLF 1

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I don't see why I'm getting thrown in the discussion...the strategy dictates discussion of targets, if discussion results in random lynchings then we're screwed.
exactly bro!

Quote:

Edited to add, the seer is safe always because the angel can just guard him right? There are no restrictions if the angel stays anonymous?
the angel doesn't know who the seer is.
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Old 04-06-2006, 11:14 AM   #257
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Re: WEREWOLF 1

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If we are wrong in the jba line of thinking we will be in a world of hurt.
yeah, it will be 13-4 and werewolves pick perfectly. don't vote for me!
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Old 04-06-2006, 11:16 AM   #258
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Re: WEREWOLF 1

"the angel doesn't know who the seer is. "

It just seems like the seer should come out and say who he is...the angel can anonymously protect him every turn.
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Old 04-06-2006, 11:16 AM   #259
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Re: WEREWOLF 1

yes, we are hurting if jba is a villager...however, most of the time, villagers do lynch 2-4 villagers to start the game, as the odds dictate...if villagers get some wolves early on, then it's due to luck or bad wolf play

i am not sure that jba is a wolf, i only think his P(wolf) is greater than random players' P(wolf)

I think andrew may have even higher probability, but people are voting for jba, so i'm cool with that...it's still +ev compared to voting random
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Old 04-06-2006, 11:17 AM   #260
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Re: WEREWOLF 1

What's the update on the votes?
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Old 04-06-2006, 11:19 AM   #261
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Re: WEREWOLF 1

the seer needs to see a wolf first, so that the villagers can trust them...if a seer comes out now and says they are a seer, protect them, we'll ask them who they saw...they can then say they didn't see a wolf and then we'll have to decide if we trust them or not...if we blindly trust the first person (wolf) that says they are a seer but have only seen innocents, then the angel will be protecting an innocent and we will be following a wolf's 'sights'

therefore we prolly won't listen to the 'seer' unless they give us a wolf target


now, at some point a wolf may claim to be a seer and out a villager as a wolf...but when we lynch that villager, we'll know the wolf is not a seer and is a wolf, so we'll lynch him the next day...but the numbers may dictate this in a few days...so we really need to get a wolf in the first 4 days or the seer needs to see a wolf in the first 4 days
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Old 04-06-2006, 11:21 AM   #262
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Re: WEREWOLF 1

Nobody's voted since the last update. Lets hurry up and get this lynching done. I need to go to work in an hour, jba better be killed off before then.
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Old 04-06-2006, 11:22 AM   #263
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Re: WEREWOLF 1

Quote:
"the angel doesn't know who the seer is. "

It just seems like the seer should come out and say who he is...the angel can anonymously protect him every turn.
The seer can't prove who he is until he can out at least one wolf. If the seer doesn't have a wolf then he prove it and the angel would be foolish to protect a potential wolf.

jba, it doesn't look good, but I think Andrew is very suspicious and I'm notcomfortable sacrificing you over him (yet).
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Old 04-06-2006, 11:23 AM   #264
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Re: WEREWOLF 1

Alright i change my vote to JBA but I'm pretty iffy about it.
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Old 04-06-2006, 11:24 AM   #265
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Re: WEREWOLF 1

it's odd that about half the jba voters would rather vote for andrew than jba, but because others voted for jba, we are all going for him since we suspect him almost as much as andrew...
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Old 04-06-2006, 11:25 AM   #266
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Re: WEREWOLF 1

Players: 12 outstanding votes
4_2_it (1 vote)
Andrew Karpinski (1 vote)
d10 voted jba
Evans67
jba (5 votes) voted Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!
jesusarenque voted for jba
keikiwai
Kramer.
Macdaddy Warsaw
mic_check12
mowz
nation voted for Andrew Karpinski
Nicholasp27 voted for jba
Piz0wn0reD!!!!!! (1 votes)
pudley4 voted for jba
rbdog
Sightless voted for 4_2_it
tightplay
Toe-Knee voted for jba
zephed


(11 needed to lynch someone)
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Old 04-06-2006, 11:26 AM   #267
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Re: WEREWOLF 1

How many votes more for JBA are needed for a majority? If it's very close and it looks like jba is going to be lynched then I'll change to speed up the process. If not I'm sticking with Andrew.

Edit: 6 more votes needed...I really think we're making a mistake. If we keep lynching our own people, it could be bad.
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Old 04-06-2006, 11:27 AM   #268
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Re: WEREWOLF 1

6 more, for 11 total
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Old 04-06-2006, 11:27 AM   #269
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Re: WEREWOLF 1

Quote:
Players: 12 outstanding votes
4_2_it (1 vote)
Andrew Karpinski (1 vote)
d10 voted jba
Evans67
jba (5 votes) voted Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!
jesusarenque voted for jba
keikiwai
Kramer.
Macdaddy Warsaw
mic_check12
mowz
nation voted for Andrew Karpinski
Nicholasp27 voted for jba
Piz0wn0reD!!!!!! (1 votes)
pudley4 voted for jba
rbdog
Sightless voted for 4_2_it
tightplay
Toe-Knee voted for jba
zephed


(11 needed to lynch someone)
Do we really need 11 to lynch somebody? If everyone has voted, but nobody has 11 votes do we just go with the person with the most votes or do we revote until somebody gets 11?
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Old 04-06-2006, 11:27 AM   #270
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Re: WEREWOLF 1

jba needs 6 more votes. There aren't enough villagers awake/online or posting to get anything done soon.
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Old 04-06-2006, 11:28 AM   #271
Nicholasp27
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Re: WEREWOLF 1

nation, we are expected to lynch our own people because we don't have much to go on yet...all we can hope for is that jba is a bad wolf player so we are right

with an angel in this game, the seer seeing a wolf is the best case scenario and our best shot at winning
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Old 04-06-2006, 11:28 AM   #272
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Re: WEREWOLF 1

Quote:
it's odd that about half the jba voters would rather vote for andrew than jba, but because others voted for jba, we are all going for him since we suspect him almost as much as andrew...
let's all switch to andrew then! I'd be happy to!
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Old 04-06-2006, 11:29 AM   #273
Nicholasp27
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Re: WEREWOLF 1

Quote:
Do we really need 11 to lynch somebody? If everyone has voted, but nobody has 11 votes do we just go with the person with the most votes or do we revote until somebody gets 11?
11 clinches it, but majority wins...if the votes are split up 4/3/3/3/2/2/2/2 then the 4 voter is gone
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Old 04-06-2006, 11:29 AM   #274
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Re: WEREWOLF 1

Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Which one is more certain to be a wolf. jba or Andrew. That is the one we should vote out now.
Not sure, I'd put between 60-70% chance for both of them. I'm sticking with jba for now, but I'm not against changing if someone makes a good argument for it.
check out my earlier link! I think it's conclusive.
I'm not even sure if it matters. It's going to be either you or Andrew today. If it's you and you're a wolf, Andrew is definitely next, no matter what happens at night. If you're not a wolf, we'll take out Andrew anyway since he's been incredibly suspicious. If we change our vote to Andrew same thing applies to you. In fact, you're both set so solidly as the next 2 lynching victims I don't even think the seer should waste his time with these 2 guys, since speaking up will only get him killed along with them.
There is a VERY simple reason why D10 would not want the seer to look into my soul. If he is a wolf, he knows I am a villager, and wants to have us continue lynching villagers.

I am all for the seer looking to see who I am. Note, angel SHOULD NOT protect me, as I am a simple villager and it is well worth sacrificing me prevent the seer / angel from being eaten. I consider every villager eaten a slight victory for us (the villagers) because I think without the seer / angel combination we stand little to no chance.
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Old 04-06-2006, 11:30 AM   #275
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Re: WEREWOLF 1

Is it just me or does it seem like the wolves are a bit favored in this? I mean they can pm eachother so they could really come up w/ a very dense strategy.
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