We laugh at things because they scare us: WORLDS LONGEST FUTURE GUESSTIMANIA POLITICAL GAME - Page 4

Name	Answer	Score
pwnsall	11.0%	10
aarondk56	20.0%	1.5
IANAWW	20.0%	1.5
Actual	21.53%	--
Booker Wolf Box	24.5%	3
accobra kid	26.3%	4
dark magus	26.8%	5
King of NYC	27.0%	6
Xander Biscuits	29.0%	7
nails	31.0%	8
JMurder3	32.0%	9
lilrascal	37.0%	11
Jedi	42.0%	12

Quote

04-24-2017 , 04:09 PM

#77

kokiri

ffermwr moch

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Name	First Question	Second Question	Total
Booker Wolf Box	1	3	4
aarondk56	4.5	1.5	6
IANAWW	4.5	1.5	6
King of NYC	4.5	6	10.5
pwnsall	2	10	12
dark magus	8	5	13
JMurder3	4.5	9	13.5
accobra kid	10	4	14
Xander Biscuits	8	7	15
nails	8	8	16
lilrascal	12	11	23
Jedi	11	12	23

Quote

04-24-2017 , 07:53 PM

#78

jedi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 6,938

Hmmm, clearly I didn't know anything about French politics or how many people would be running.

Quote

04-25-2017 , 03:11 AM

#79

kokiri

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Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Quote:

Originally Posted by jedi

Hmmm, clearly I didn't know anything about French politics or how many people would be running.

A couple of weeks ago one of the uk's leading public intellectuals came to visit and over dinner he asked me and a couple of others our view on the French election. Solid chance this was his conclusion about me.

Quote

01-31-2018 , 04:03 AM

#80

kokiri

ffermwr moch

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Quote:

Originally Posted by kokiri

8. %GDP damage caused by UK leaving the EU

NameAnswer

pwnsall1%

nails2%

JMurder32.2%

lilrascal3%

dark magus6.7%

accobra kid13%

Xander Biscuits15%

aarondk5615%

Jedi19%

IANAWW20%

King of NYC20%

I'll take the over. If it happens

https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonard...rl5#.peEobm7rv

Government estimates say 2-8% over 15 years. They’re having a laugh imo.

Quote

01-31-2018 , 11:11 AM

#81

pwnsall

CFBBPC

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 65,626

are we rescoring number 2?

also should have thought more about gdp

Quote

01-31-2018 , 05:04 PM

#82

kokiri

ffermwr moch

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

See no reason for rescoring number 2.

Also, the GDP question is officially a cluster****, might get thrown out. What do we compare it against?

Quote

06-27-2018 , 03:47 PM

#83

kokiri

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Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Quote:

Originally Posted by kokiri

Number of supreme court justices Trump replaces. Aka, how many judges die in office +1

Name5. ###

aarondk561

JMurder31

dark magus2

King of NYC2

Jedi2

nails2

Xander Biscuits2

IANAWW3

pwnsall3

accobra kid3

lilrascal5

TBH, I can't really bring myself to think about this too closely

Omgbump

Quote

06-28-2018 , 12:16 PM

#84

pwnsall

CFBBPC

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 65,626

Maybe he'll start calling hits on the rest

Quote

12-13-2018 , 09:57 AM

#85

kokiri

ffermwr moch

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Quote:

Originally Posted by kokiri

3. Number of seats gained/lost by the GOP in 2018 midterm elections

Name	###
aarondk56	-50
dark magus	-25
Jedi	-24
lilrascal	-17
IANAWW	-12
Booker W	-12
JMurder3	-11
nails	-10
pwnsall	-3
King of NYC	2
accobra kid	24
Xander Biscuits	46

Anyone know how many seats will be up for grabs? Should I have specified Senate/Representatives? Do I know what I'm talking about at all?

+2 in the Senate, -40 in the House, so -38 overall.

Quote

12-13-2018 , 10:02 AM

#86

kokiri

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Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Name	Supreme Court	Nationalists	Midterm	Total
aarondk56	4.5	1.5	1	7
Booker Wolf Box	1	3	5	9
IANAWW	4.5	1.5	5	11
dark magus	8	5	2	15
King of NYC	4.5	6	10	20.5
JMurder3	4.5	9	7	20.5
pwnsall	2	10	9	21
nails	8	8	8	24
accobra kid	10	4	11	25
Jedi	11	12	3	26
Xander Biscuits	8	7	12	27
lilrascal	12	11	4	27

Age brings wisdom

Quote

12-13-2018 , 10:02 AM

#87

kokiri

ffermwr moch

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Name	3. Number of seats gained/lost by the GOP in 2018 midterm elections	Raw Score	Points
aarondk56	-50	-0.500602351	1
dark magus	-25	-0.465840244	2
Jedi	-24	-0.433655561	3
lilrascal	-17	-0.257564302	4
IANAWW	-12	-0.164810249	5
Booker Wolf Box	-12	-0.164810249	5
JMurder3	-11	-0.148419832	7
nails	-10	-0.132625565	8
pwnsall	-3	-0.035715552	9
King of NYC	2	0.022276395	10
accobra kid	24	0.212608093	11
Xander Biscuits	46	0.344495689	12

Quote

08-14-2019 , 03:51 AM

#88

kokiri

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Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Quote:

Originally Posted by kokiri

9. Years Theresa May serves as Prime Minister

NameAnswer

pwnsall2

aarondk562

Jedi2

IANAWW2

nails3

lilrascal3

dark magus3.25

accobra kid3.25

JMurder35

Xander Biscuits5

King of NYC8

Got a few 'who?'s for this. I feel like 3 or lower is possible if Brexit is a debacle. OTOH there's literally no opposition atm,

Bumping to remind me to score this later

Quote

08-14-2019 , 10:59 AM

#89

pwnsall

CFBBPC

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 65,626

Nice prediction

Quote

08-14-2019 , 05:32 PM

#90

kokiri

ffermwr moch

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

9. Years Theresa May serves as Prime Minister

Answer: 3 years, 9 days

Name	9. Years Theresa May serves as Prime Minister	Raw Score	Points
King of NYC	8	0.214882156	12
JMurder3	5	-0.187026237	10
Xander Biscuits	5	-0.187026237	10
Booker Wolf Box	3.5	-0.809491003	5
dark magus	3.25	-1.139310086	3
accobra kid	3.25	-1.139310086	3
nails	3	-2.002362442	1
lilrascal	3	-2.002362442	1
pwnsall	2	-0.468567282	6
aarondk56	2	-0.468567282	6
IANAWW	2	-0.468567282	6
Jedi	2	-0.468567282	6

From the original posts:

Quote:

Originally Posted by kokiri

Got a few 'who?'s for this. I feel like 3 or lower is possible if Brexit is a debacle. OTOH there's literally no opposition atm,

Oh snap!

Last edited by kokiri; 08-14-2019 at 05:46 PM. Reason: edited for having the wrong numbers in the wrong places

Quote

08-14-2019 , 05:33 PM

#91

kokiri

ffermwr moch

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Current standings:

Name	Supreme Court	Nationalists	Midterm	Theresa May PM	Total
aarondk56	4.5	1.5	1	6	13
Booker Wolf Box	1	3	5	5	14
IANAWW	4.5	1.5	5	6	17
dark magus	8	5	2	3	18
nails	8	8	8	1	25
pwnsall	2	10	9	6	27
accobra kid	10	4	11	3	28
lilrascal	12	11	4	1	28
JMurder3	4.5	9	7	10	30.5
Jedi	11	12	3	6	32
King of NYC	4.5	6	10	12	32.5
Xander Biscuits	8	7	12	10	37

Last edited by kokiri; 08-14-2019 at 05:44 PM. Reason: edited for being totally wrong

Quote

08-14-2019 , 06:32 PM

#92

Booker Wolfbox

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 38,643

This is going surprisingly, and depressingly, well.

Quote

08-14-2019 , 10:24 PM

#93

Eric

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 13,865

Booker's new job as political analyst is going well.

Quote

09-10-2019 , 12:46 PM

#94

kokiri

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Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Quote:

Originally Posted by kokiri

Years Trump serves as president (before being impeached, outvoted, dying in office after suspending the constitution and ruling for 25 years, etc)

You heard it here first:

https://twitter.com/politvidchannel/...29103397408768

Quote

12-16-2019 , 05:40 PM

#95

kokiri

ffermwr moch

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Quote:

Originally Posted by kokiri

7. Date that UK formally leaves the EU

Name	####
Jedi	27 Jan 2023
accobra kid	1-Apr-18
Xander Biscuits	20-Jul-18
IANAWW	5-Nov-18
pwnsall	25-Nov-18
lilrascal	28-Feb-19
JMurder3	1-Mar-19
dark magus	1-May-19
nails	30-Jun-19
aarondk56	1-Jul-19
King of NYC	1-Jan-20
BookerW	1-Jan-19

I'll try to clarify what Jedi meant.

Unless something really odd happens, this is going to be the 31st Jan 2020, so nice hand King of NYC.

Last edited by kokiri; 12-16-2019 at 05:50 PM.

Quote

12-16-2019 , 06:00 PM

#96

kokiri

ffermwr moch

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Name	3. Number of seats gained/lost by the GOP in 2018 midterm elections	Raw Score	Points
King of NYC	1-Jan-20	0.011738403	1
aarondk56	1-Jul-19	0.091634145	2
nails	30-Jun-19	0.09211113	3
dark magus	1-May-19	0.121733597	4
JMurder3	1-Mar-19	0.154075519	5
lilrascal	28-Feb-19	0.154626305	6
Booker Wolf Box	1-Jan-19	0.187829662	7
pwnsall	25-Nov-18	0.210419288	8
IANAWW	5-Nov-18	0.223137458	9
Jedi	27-Jan-23	0.294613171	10
Xander Biscuits	20-Jul-18	0.299104075	11
accobra kid	1-Apr-18	0.393141126	12

Quote

12-16-2019 , 06:01 PM

#97

kokiri

ffermwr moch

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Aaronk56 continues to dominate:

Name	Supreme Court	Nationalists	Midterm	Brexit	Total
aarondk56	4.5	1.5	1	2	9
Booker Wolf Box	1	3	5	7	16
dark magus	8	5	2	4	19
IANAWW	4.5	1.5	5	9	20
King of NYC	4.5	6	10	1	21.5
JMurder3	4.5	9	7	5	25.5
nails	8	8	8	3	27
pwnsall	2	10	9	8	29
lilrascal	12	11	4	6	33
Jedi	11	12	3	10	36
accobra kid	10	4	11	12	37
Xander Biscuits	8	7	12	11	38

Quote

02-11-2020 , 05:55 PM

#98

kokiri

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Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Quote:

Originally Posted by kokiri

Game will reveal as the answers are determined.

Years Trump serves as president (before being impeached, outvoted, dying in office after suspending the constitution and ruling for 25 years, etc)
Years until a Trump executive order is struck down as unconstitutional
Number of seats gained/lost by the GOP in 2018 midterm elections
Number of electoral votes the GOP candidate gets in 2020
Number of supreme court justices Trump replaces
Months until Hillary is formally indicted/pardoned
Date that UK formally leaves the EU
%GDP damage caused by UK leaving the EU
Years Theresa May serves as Prime Minister
%age of the first round vote that Marine Le Pen gains in the first round of the French presidential elections

Bonuses: Names of the next non Trump, non May President/Prime Minister.

Exact scoring system tbc.

If Trump loses in the autumn, we might be able to wrap this puppy up.

Quote

09-19-2020 , 02:45 AM

#99

kokiri

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Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Quote:

Originally Posted by kokiri

Number of supreme court justices Trump replaces

Ohfuk.

Quote

10-30-2020 , 09:15 AM

#100

kokiri

ffermwr moch

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 52,228

Quote:

Originally Posted by kokiri

Game will reveal as the answers are determined.

Years Trump serves as president (before being impeached, outvoted, dying in office after suspending the constitution and ruling for 25 years, etc)
Years until a Trump executive order is struck down as unconstitutional
Number of seats gained/lost by the GOP in 2018 midterm elections
Number of electoral votes the GOP candidate gets in 2020
Number of supreme court justices Trump replaces
Months until Hillary is formally indicted/pardoned
Date that UK formally leaves the EU
%GDP damage caused by UK leaving the EU
Years Theresa May serves as Prime Minister
%age of the first round vote that Marine Le Pen gains in the first round of the French presidential elections

Bonuses: Names of the next non Trump, non May President/Prime Minister.

Exact scoring system tbc.

Given the GDP damage question is basically impossible to answer, we could be done with this by Wednesday.

#pleasepleaseplease

Quote

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