I think we ought to look at it this way... eb has chosen a location. I don't think fire, or asphalt, or a stove are even on this scale we've been given.
Where does Tasmania rank, compared to Death Valley? Or Qatar? Or Kenya?
Is Tasmania even that hot? It's an island off of the mainland of Australia. It's pretty well South of the equator, and I'm guessing it's about even with much of Argentina. But I don't know if it's made up of swampland or marshes or mountains or whatnot.
18 is probably too high. I'm not certain that 15 isn't also too high.
I think they are. Hes narrowed it down to a place- but- I don't think we should read to much in to that. Upon further thinking I do think your right, 18 is way too high.
I think 14-16 is a range I like...with 15-16 as more likely.
I don't think 13 or 18 are very likely, but maybe 18 is slightly more likely because this should never be 13 but maybe 1% chance he overestimated it as an 18
I think otherwise it's basically a coinflip between 15/16 so 16 is the slightly better guess