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Vanilla 13er game thread Shirts vs Skins Vanilla 13er game thread Shirts vs Skins

12-31-2012 , 09:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by vixticator
METS YOU CAN'T SERIOUSLY BE THIS ****ING TERRIBLE AT THE GAME. IT IS LIKE COMPLETELY IMPOSSIBLE.
yup.

IDK.

mets' D1 was so stupid. I'm on page 11. I can understand well named. I can't understand mets. he is talking gibberish to me. he is trying to wagon vix. he is not coming with a villagery mindset.

I think WN's answer to how likely is mets out of his wolf range or not might settle this. of course if WN is a wolf then he might just go ahead and say it. but if WN is a wolf he might be tied to stating the truth here if he has a big history of reading mets well.

I was never in a spot where I actually had to read mets' posts and see how likely they've come from a villagery mindset.

I will say though that chilltown saying mets is a wolf is also very very suspicious.
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12-31-2012 , 09:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chilltown
This scares me.

1 cause of ongoing game and you know why.

2 cause you did a similar long drawn out post as a wolf in wutang and your list didn't make sense and you were talking about "poeing" the wolves again.

3 cause massively clearing half the thread on day 1 is bad. I do think well named is a good vote, more so over monte, but I have no idea how you can be so lock confident on the first 5 (besides me) after 1 ****ing day.

I'm curious to see if these thoughts have changed.
right.

let me try to think about this.

at this point I'm lock clearing chilltown and I'm lock clearing mets.

I'm pushing montecore and I'm pushing well named.

if chilltown is w/w/w with montecore and well named, he doesn't really want to respond to this post. and he doesn't really want to push me over this post. if chilltown is pushing me over it, I'm doing something wrong.

also he wants to lynch well named in front of monte. that doesn't look terrible for wn either.

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

btw sorry for aidsing the game up heh but I'm saying I'm sorry but then I don't really give a **** so deal with it mofos
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12-31-2012 , 09:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xkf
list atm looks something like this

montecore
hardcore
anarchist
chilltown


well named
vix
monkey banana
birdie
mets

tweedy
lkj
rebonk


middle group is ordered from villagery to wolfy top to bottom, but none are as villagery/wolfy as the top/bottom groups

how does this look, any comments?
xkf too ballsy here to be a wolf IMO. clearing both his wolfbros and all. I know for a fact he doesn't really do that when he is wolfing. he kinda softpushes his wolfbros cause he doesn't wanna look suspicious. here he seems to be very ignorant about the roles. anyway just wanted to point this out cause it makes xkf even more lock clear.
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12-31-2012 , 09:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montecore
also well named going from neutral on me to putting me in his wolf list within like 3 posts with no explanation, between which i hadn't posted anything, is super sketchy
Quote:
Originally Posted by well named
actually I still think you may be more likely than rand() to flip villager, but it's obvious based on the game flow and all the other villager reads I have, and how thin my villa read on you is, to think you should be a wagon. And I realized that. So I changed my mind about it a bit. But there's a reason I'm still not voting you even though I think its optimal for you to be a wagon
this is a fairly villagery intearction for wn with monte here.
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12-31-2012 , 09:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chilltown
That make something up line was pretty good.

mets, aren't you mad that I voted your peek? Shouldn't you be going crazy on me?
you see? those small chilltown pushes are something I expect from him when he is w/w with mets :/
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12-31-2012 , 09:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chilltown
Probably something like that.

Anarchist
xkf
mets

also in the red zone.

Monte's vote on LKJ was so soooooo bad from what I remember.
now beginning of d2. chilltown keeps pushing mets. d2 is probably going to be more important now to filter down the last wolf.

it's really really either well named or binkles a lot here. I can't see it being anyone else and if it is VERY GG WOLVES although you probably still lose cause we do have two mislynches :P
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12-31-2012 , 09:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by well named
You're also probably being too quick to be assured that monte is a wolf, although at this point he probably has to be lynched or peeked because he's not going to clear himself with the amount of time he's spending, but I don't think he's as obvious of a wolf as everyone seems to think he is
well wn is really being brazen about being wolfbros with montecore if he has the petulance to, as w/w, still kinda soft defend his howling wolfbro on d1 here.

I think this is probably just bad play. this is such a ridiculous line to take as a wolf.
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12-31-2012 , 09:55 AM
captain binkles
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12-31-2012 , 09:58 AM
probably not terrible that I had bad seer cover.

if I'm actually right about binkles here this was a pretty good game for me even though I was wrong a lot.

cause it's definitely very hard to read wn's posts and not think he has to be the last wolf.

or something.

still reading though.
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12-31-2012 , 10:01 AM
I'm not done re-reading but I'm leaning mets/binkles as the remaining wolf.

if not, it's just always well named anyway.

the remaining people in the game are very unlikely wolves.
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12-31-2012 , 10:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by well named
I will have a good amount of time tomorrow

I think I'm actually going to try to stop reading this right now for at least a couple hours so I can finish this thing, which thankfully is not taking as long as I thought.

I'll be around off and on though, and for EOD I think
I'll be here waiting for you to solve the **** out of this game actually.

then at night i'll be out and will miss EOD the next day
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12-31-2012 , 01:06 PM
i'm here

i want to lynch wn or binkles today

mb and hardcore stop voting each other holy sht
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12-31-2012 , 01:07 PM
haven't reread but for whatever reason i had chilltown/mb as never being w/w

then again i blow at this game so far

really hoping it's binkles so i can at least have gotten 1 correct wolf
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12-31-2012 , 01:12 PM
i think right now i have mb clearer than hardcore but i can't find any way to lynch either of you over wn/binkles/anarchist unless something crazy happens
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12-31-2012 , 01:13 PM
sup bitches

I have a couple of ideas I need to develop further and arrange my thoughts, but we're going to win this today imo.

vix is clear, xkf is SHC and I really doubt that's ever an FPS kill, hardcore is clear. Wolf needs 3 mislynches but assuming I can clear myself that only leaves MB, binkles, anarchist

I should re-read binkles and I will, but frankly I think it's like 0.1% that mets was ever a wolf in his incarnation in this game. I just don't believe it. And really the only thing I saw from binkles in the last couple days that was mildly alarming, maybe, was him reading me as a wolf, coupled with some excuses about not having read all of my posts. That certainly would fit a narrative for a wolf given that they almost certainly expect to mislynch me and would have expected to do so yesterday a ton of the time, but still, mets was so villagery for him I think binkles should almost be clear. And he was doing good work otherwise anyway and seemed villagery.

That leaves MB and anarchist. I have to do a thorough re-read on them both but I think the main thing I want to say right now is just strategic: Don't clear people based on wolf spew. It doesn't work, you're not good at it, I'm not good at it, it fails. Wolves bus. Wolves interact in goofy ways. Wolves make weird mistakes and then villagers clear them because "it doesn't make sense for w/w to do this". This is how binkles ended up kinda clearing monte incorrectly in the cookies game when he thought he couldn't be w/w with soah.

I personally think anarchist is probably the most likely to be the last wolf, because it seems like MB's play is just straight up more villagery. There's also the very significant and often reliable tell where you just look to see who seems to care about the game on days like yesterday where it's really slow. MB is more likely to be a villager then annie on all those metrics

Essentially, if you're left with a read on a player that's "he isn't villagery except for blah blah wolf spew blah", that player is often a wolf
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12-31-2012 , 01:16 PM
what do you take of anarchist trying to lynch the seer yesterday when it was really obvious he was the seer?
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12-31-2012 , 01:22 PM
I think the only thing you should make of that is that anarchist wasn't really invested in the game yesterday, which is a wolf tell.

I guess it's also possible a wolf would try to start wagons on seer candidates but I'm not sure if rebonk fits that description prior to actually claiming? So it seems more likely it's just evidence of not paying attention
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12-31-2012 , 01:23 PM
my read on annie is very villagery

my read on everyone but you and mets is 'very villagery' btw.
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12-31-2012 , 01:26 PM
well you know mets' game better than i do.

i'll be fairly surprised if annie is a wolf here, but since you know mets' range much better than I do I might trust you in this.

because obviously if binkles isn't a wolf and you're not a wolf then there's just annie left mostly. very hard for mb to ever be a wolf here.
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12-31-2012 , 01:26 PM
hardcore I am alarmed and disheartened that we have such divergent reads this game

I don't really know how you can have mets as wolfy though, like pre-bankles. To me that's like people thinking you have been wolfy. Just no comprende

Also you still don't seem to be giving enough credit to the fact that if I were a wolf you'd probably be dead already :P
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12-31-2012 , 01:28 PM
well I posted my thoughts.

clearing you over me not being dead is pretty ridiculous fwiw :P
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12-31-2012 , 01:30 PM
btw I would totally lynch you before annie here
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12-31-2012 , 01:30 PM
eh it's probably not bullet proof but I feel like it's worth something. It's hard to know how the wolves were really thinking about the possible NKs, but obviously they couldn't find the seer and I feel like I were a wolf you'd get shot reasonably often. I could be wrong I guess, but it feels right :P
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12-31-2012 , 01:32 PM
You can probably lynch me first and we still win as long as the 3 lynches are me, annie, and MB, I think

I'd rather not take the chance, and I have no intention of just lying down for my lynch, but I'm going to try to find the wolf today and lynch them, and if I die first at least maybe I can have something in this game to say I didn't screw up
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12-31-2012 , 01:35 PM
yeah that's the spirit mostly.

I've done what I could and my conclusion is mets was a wolf.

if you can re-read the game or partially and post your thoughts ITT I can change my wonder.

I do wonder if you really read mets closely though? because I will take your read on him to the grave with me and I won't lynch him at f3 if it comes to it and you're saying he is hard cleared as a dead villager.
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