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Vanilla 13er game thread Shirts vs Skins Vanilla 13er game thread Shirts vs Skins

12-31-2012 , 04:26 AM
On a straightforward reading of the game, I can simply lynch Well Named, Binkles and Anarchist in any order and win.

I know I'm a villa, vix is peeked and Xkf and Hardcore are SHC'd.

But obviously, nothing's ever that straightforward.

I'm going to have a quick think about what each player has done and why I think they could be the wolf. That's not to say I'm softpushing every player in the game! Just things to think about without delving too deep.
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12-31-2012 , 04:28 AM
oh I totally forgot to listen to the best song from queensland, sorry MB I'll do it tomorrow :P

on the bright side hopefully Mets will realise that him freaking out about his fakepeek allowed an obvious wolf to flip against the seer and a peeked villager and he'll learn, although I doubt it

fwiw Hardcore if you're in work mode today:

1. Montecore is aggro towards WN from what I could see (like the posts Monkey quoted yesterday)
2. My experience with wolf Chill is that, in general, he's not often going to clear wolfbros (similar to Monte)

okay, happy new year everyone
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12-31-2012 , 04:30 AM
anarchist fakepeeked chill villa d1, which is good for anarchist given what I know of his wolf game

I somewhat doubt xkf FPS's himself clear with a xkf/chill wolfteam

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12-31-2012 , 04:34 AM
tbf I skimmed through half the game while baked and I'm pretty damn positive it's just wn.

i'm doing a full re-read now just to make sure
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12-31-2012 , 04:36 AM
Anarchist: I think I thought he was clear because he was spewed by Montecore. I feel like he could on balance have been either role on tone and general conduct, but on the whole his agenda has felt villagey. Last time we were w/v I got him wrong though, so I need to take care. In that game, like this one, he was not particularly prominent, but I don't think he really plays any two games the same.

Gun to head: Probably not a wolf

Binkles: Would Mets peek a wolfbro villager? I don't know that aspect of his game and can't remember what he did last time we were w/v. One thing I do recognise about Mets is that he's very good at picking a villager for his d1 peek and for him to be a villa he has to have gotten Montecore very wrong. Now, bearing in mind that only two other people found Monte villagey, and one of them is a lynched wolf, that's interesting. He also pushed vix hard and I never really understood his reasoning for that. Ofc I didn't actually read most of his posts in anything but the most cursory way. His behaviour at EOD is mystifying. Did he think rebonk was getting lynched? He said he would let it flip, which I can't understand. He could quite easily have switched to rebonk to "save his peek" but didn't. I tended to feel this cleared him and if he's the last wolf, more than one other player who would have to be a villager read him very strongly as a villager. I suppose I trusted to that somewhat.

I think his push of Xkf was fairly legit. Although I felt Xkf was villagey d1, his d2 was awful. It's true that there was a case to answer in not recognising that Mets pushed him d1 and in having little to say in the way of content. That's also continued.

Binkles has been quite wolfy. He entered the thread simply agreeing with Hardcore's wolf reads, which cannot have been correct. I'm going to check what he had to say about Chilly but I don't think he was sceptical of him. He has added very little value and I think a player not immersed in a game ought to be able to.

Gun to head: Sceptical face
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12-31-2012 , 04:46 AM
Hardcore: I mean, yeah, he's piled on the volume, and was SHC'd. So can he be the wolf? Hmmm. Well, I've only seen him lynch once. He was aggressive and willing to tunnel to get a mislynch. He didn't really chop and change like he has in this game. Can he just be an overeager villager? Yes. But I'm not clearing him on volume either. He posted a lot when we were w/v. I haven't seen him play since so don't know whether this has been typical but he's seemed very villagey to me in other games we've played, so I dunno.

I don't feel his line on EOD1 is at all satisfactory. He says he voted with LKJ to save him but why? This isn't consistent with his posts at the time (LKJ was "howling"; Monte "100% wolf"). Why "save" someone you are at best meh about and haven't ever called a villager even when you could simply vote to lynch your wolf? On the other hand, he was also calling Rebonk a wolf some of the time. (Why did he change his mind about that?) In fact, his reads, seemingly a bit random, quite often picked up on thread flow. Rebonk wolfy while he was lynchable; a villager when he didn't look so lynchable. It could easily be that he felt EOD1 cleared Rebonk too strongly, I don't know.

I think there are questions but overall I'd have to conclude he was a villager. Not lock clear by any means, and I'd hate to be stuck in an f3 with him and almost anyone else.
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12-31-2012 , 04:47 AM
Originally Posted by metsandfinsfan
monte the other night when you wolfed with .. idk younguns maybe? and got bussed at the end? you were doing vote counts?

was a turbo; but to put it mildly -- not your best work
Originally Posted by Montecore
lol that one was fun, it wasn't yg though

still won though lols
this is a very weird interaction, but the problem here is trying to identify whether it's v/v or v/w. how did monte behave with the other players? he clearly set up a dynamic with chilltown that he would be overly aggressive with him through d1. overrall he seems to be limiting his interactions with mets a little quote. like more often than not montecore is going to quote mets and throw a one liner that doesn't require or opens up to a more deeply intearction. the feeling over page 1 and 2 is that montecore knows mets is a villager and is uncomfortable having to interact with him so much.

there are several important differences between the montecore/mets interactions and the montecore/chilltown interactions. with chilltown, montecore was simply overly critical of his game. chilltown is arrogant, his reads are bad etc. montecore is picking on chilltown a lot throughout p1 and p2. with mets is different. the interactions between mets and monte sound a lot like the interactions between monte and the other known villagers. the somewhat helpful one-liners and the generally friendly but distant tone. probably not great to explain without quoting it but definitely not good to quote it.

so I feel p2 already give signs that mets/binkles is a villager here.
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12-31-2012 , 04:53 AM
Monkey: Objectively, I think it should be hard to think I'm a wolf and I'm sceptical of people who have tried to have it otherwise, particularly since Chilltown clearly felt I could be mislynched. I really think I have to be considered spewed clear not just by Monte, but also by Chill. Not because of fighting with him, although I do think that's hard to fake, but because he genuinely seemed to be trying to keep me on his lynch list.

He made a huge big deal of my wagoning both LKJ and Xkf. Clearly, that's why I did it! Sometimes if you flop your balls out, it's illuminating who tries to take a nibble at them

I think I'm demotivated to "peek" vix and defend him as hard as I did, particularly when he was a possible mislynch. One thing wolves must not do is clear mislynches. They have to try to stick to clearing villagers that are either already clear or likely to become clear in their view. Sure, it's a demerit that I lynched LKJ for that reason. But whatever Xkf thinks of my wagoning him, I can tell you that I never write a open MQ on him d1 if I'm a wolf. I also don't allow Birdie to clear himself or ever back down from Well Named, who was an easy mislynch yesterday and would in fact be very easy today, I think.

So I'd hope that villas will easily clear me, which will make it easier for them to set their personal lynch order.
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12-31-2012 , 05:08 AM
I never doubted vix was a villager so even though it's cool he's peeked, would have been even cooler if someone else was!

Anyway, Well Named, he's an enigma. I've seen him be all over the place as a wolf and generally more serious and focused as a villager. D1 was pretty awful for him: he pushed me and vix both with incomprehensible reasons. But I felt he got much better and sounded pretty villagey after that. If he was anyone else, I'd feel like he's been a bit weird for a wolf. They usually try not to seem odd. But he's Well Named. So he could be a wolf, but I don't feel it desperately strongly. I feel like Chill tried to push him too but I need to have another look back to be sure why I feel that. I think his reads have shown some evolution and that's in his favour.

Xkf has profiled as a wolf since start of d2. I'm sorry if he's a villager and feels he should have been able to coast because he's SHC'd but he's not looked that much like it. In particular, he's another player who has been pushing me, and clearly at least Chill thought I was a mislynch. If they could achieve that, and then Mets/Binkles, Well Named is easy and it's possible for them to win. He can certainly be the deep wolf from that perspective.

However, Montecore's behaviour d2 when I think back on it really implies that he, and probably the wolf team, felt he was peeked. He made no effort at all to try not to get lynched. This in turn implies that the n2 kill was legit. The wolves really felt that tweedy peeked Monte n0. I'm really inclined to go with that reading of why they killed what to me was a pretty unlikely seer candidate. I'm not in their heads, so can't judge their thinking, but that story works very well for me.

Interesting also is that Hardcore came out firing for Well Named d2. For him to be a wolf there, accepting the tweedy seer story, would that make sense? Well possibly so. He ought to be pushing Montecore. He was "100% wolf" blah blah. But if he pushes a counterwagon, perhaps he can force tweedy into confirming for the wolf team that he peeked Monte?

This is just "in the weeds" speculation though. I'm not suggesting any level of certainty that Hardcore did any such thing. I'm not advocating lynching him. I think it's somewhat unlikely even.
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12-31-2012 , 05:14 AM
Binkles' posts today and at least some of yesterday clear too many people!

Binkles, you haven't left anyone to lynch.

I don't even know what to make of that. You've literally given reasons not to lynch everyone.
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12-31-2012 , 05:18 AM
Originally Posted by Chilltown
MB isn't standing out.

Annie is pretty wolfy, ultra combative to start.

Me=villa is good.

Dunno how he landed on mets=villa and you=villa though.

I have a secret read on LKJ's wolf game.
Originally Posted by Anarchist
yeah im so wolfy
chilltown answering to montecore saying annie is pretty wolfy. annie responds with a sarcastic face. it's not a particularly v/w interaction BUT I do feel that chilltown would be a bit more flamboyant while pushing his wolfbros. the fact that monte was also saying annie was 'kinda wolfy but I'm reaching' could make them more likely to be w/w/w, but in reality the way montecore is pushing annie at the beginning of the game is in line with how he pushes other players (like LKJ for instance). also, the way chilltown is pushing annie is in line with the way he was pushing vixticator later in the gameday.

anyway moving forward.

Originally Posted by Montecore
annie hasn't been combative

his read on you is probably premature since early fluffing is something i'd guess even you can manage as a wolf

do you think mets and i are wolfy, or just not villagery

"struggling to post content" could describe lkj, he's reaching a bit, but it's d1
this is monte's response to it and now it starts to make annie pretty damn clear. montecore is disagreeing with how chilltown views anarchist. then disagrees on how anarchist views chilltown to him. this is a very unlikely w/w/w scenario because it would depend on montecore to be thinking the game on a high re-reading level later and trying to identify what are the problems on chilltown's arguments regarding the other wolfbro and disagreeing with it. this is not the type of thing wolves do to create distance. maybe montecore would just do this by luck pointing out the obvious about anarchist as w/w/w, but more likely than not monte is just keeping in line with his idea of being overly critical of chilltown to create separation.

also not how montecore is pushing LKJ. it's exactly how he is pushing annie. '[player x] is doing [thought process that makes player x wolfy], but [creates unaccountability]'. his read on annie was 'anarchist being macro afk which is slighty wolfy but i'm reaching'. with lkj was like 'struggling to post content would describe him but it's d1'. there is an actual unaccountability flow in montecore's reads at the very least when he is reaching a villager. let's see moving forward if it keeps that way.
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12-31-2012 , 05:21 AM
also note how montecore is pushing LKJ. it's exactly how he is pushing annie.
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12-31-2012 , 05:34 AM
Originally Posted by Montecore
meh seems thin
this is WRT the 'tmi slip' thingy. of course it was a ridiculous discussion, I was just commenting on something because nothing was jumping out on me or whatever. then montecore wants to know what's the slip, sees it and goes 'meh seems thin', which kind of makes way more sense as w/v than w/w. as w/w I believe he would likely be unsure about whether the 'slip' had any value cause he knows annie is a wolf. as w/v he would look at the 'slip' and see if there is any value to pushing annie for his mislynch because of it. he is one of the first people to say there was no TMI slip there and I feel this makes it a likely w/v scenario just because as a wolf he probably wouldn't just go 'meh seems thin'.

Originally Posted by Xkf
this is a villagery ready

also i agree that it is (very) thin
this is villagery from xkf because it's a read that comes right after monte's post. I don't think xkf has reached a level where he states what is villagery and isn't of his wolfbros.

anyway page 3 and I already feel somewhat confident about annie, xkf and captain binkles.
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12-31-2012 , 05:47 AM
Originally Posted by Montecore
this is probably a more useful observation later on in the game

not having a ton of content an hour into d1 isn't exactly damning
Originally Posted by Montecore
xkf was underwhelming, to say the least, as smaug in hobbit

i'm confident it will become evident relatively early if he's wolfing

don't think he's been particularly wolfy yet
some montecore's posts to and about xkf.

the lack of conclusion driving and the confidence xkf will be 'evident relatively early' are comments that are more in line with a w/v interaction. if montecore and xkf are w/w, he would probably never use the 'don't think he's been particularly wolfy yet' line as a wolfbro. btw this is to mets, and shows a bit of 'montecore appearing busy to villagers' early. xkf is now a very very likely villager regardless of being SHCed or not.
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12-31-2012 , 05:49 AM
Originally Posted by vixticator
If hardcore villager,
Then anarchist village.
And, Chill, Monte >>rand wolf.

If hardcore wolfager,
Then disregard everything.
hah good stuff
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12-31-2012 , 05:53 AM
i'm gonna go well named now

on page 4 it's like, it's either well named or monkey banana, but that's only because neither showed up.

I really don't think those initial pages make sense with mets, xkf or annie as monte/chill wolfbros. anyway I'll be back later to read from 5-10. won't be around tomorrow either but I'll get a nice POE I think.
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12-31-2012 , 05:55 AM
tbh, you could quote the same posts and reach the exact opposite conclusions. Why wouldn't a wolf be equally noncommittal about his bros as his villas?
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12-31-2012 , 05:57 AM
If you try to push me at any point, I will not rest until you're lynched, because you will have outed yourself. I'm not going to let you mislynch me this game even if I have to scream and kick all the way down.
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12-31-2012 , 05:58 AM
it's not how I perceive wolves reacting to stuff their wolfbros say or generating their leans on his wolfbros. some of it is player dependant, some of it is what wolves do in general etc.
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12-31-2012 , 05:59 AM
Originally Posted by Monkey Banana
If you try to push me at any point, I will not rest until you're lynched, because you will have outed yourself. I'm not going to let you mislynch me this game even if I have to scream and kick all the way down.
are you on drugs?

how about monkey banana and we can just do that?

I'm on page 4. chill. you haven't even said anything important ITT yet.
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12-31-2012 , 06:00 AM

Let's do it then.
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12-31-2012 , 06:03 AM
Wolves are noncommittal. You can't read them and say "well he didn't push any conclusion so x is a villager" because they are noncommittal about everyone. You are reaching a conclusion, then looking for evidence. Maybe you're right about Well Named, but that's not a secure way to get there.

Not to mention that conclusion -> evidence is how a wolf tends to do it, and how you did it when we were last w/v, so it gives me the willies.
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12-31-2012 , 06:03 AM
I am lock lock clear. Chill spewed me seven ways to Sunday. GL trying to get me lynched.
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12-31-2012 , 06:06 AM
eh no it's not what I'm doing.

you're trivializing what my arguments are. for the 1000th time or whatever. the wolf can be entirely noncommital about a wolfbro but act in a way that makes them more or less likely to be w/w or whatever. a wolf can push people hard but in different ways that makes more sense for them to be w/w or w/v. there are certain spots where wolves wouldn't be noncomittal about a wolfbro. there are certain wolves that are incapable of being entirely noncommital about a wolfbro.

just let me do my work the way I know and reach my own conclusions, please.
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12-31-2012 , 06:07 AM
Having said that, maybe we could focus on finding and lynching the wolf? I strongly doubt it's you so I'd hate to have to waste two days lynching you before I can even begin finding the bad guy.
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