If Tappo quoted the wrong post after trying to find it, then you should probably go find the one you're talking about for us instead of "I'm done, permavote arcbell" (not actually voting me)

Hm... ok but like... would you, as wolf, have stuff in your notes like:

Villagers:
Thingyman

... you obviously wouldn't need to start a POE list, then abandon it as mafia correct?

Also would you make notes on people you knew you wouldn't need to waste your time making notes on? I mean I just don't see anyone doing that as mafia knowing that the notes will almost certainly never see the light of day.

This feels so backwards -- I am literally trying to convince you that you are town.

okay

well, whatever

I think it would be poor of you to read anything into whether or not anyone tried to save well named yesterday given that his immediate lynch was very likely no matter what. Plus, you know, he'd given up since the start of day.

haha

this is actually a super interesting observation

but not 100 % in the way you think

as a wolf I would likely also keep a list in my document, but that's to keep track of my reads and make sure that I'm consistent

whereas this game I didn't really update my list in my document because, well, I just had it in my head, and it's often changing

this IMO was a very good post and is actually more or less what I was referring to with the "if monstr flips wolf never lynch thingy" note from like three days ago, though I thought there was even more to it than that

it is probably not quite lock clearing (I overbid a bit when I said that) but it's prettay prettay good and thingy if I ever push you you have the right to quote this post right here and say "so, wassup?"

Yea that's what I figured upon seeing it in two seperate iterations of your notes unchanged. Starting a villager list like that with yourself is like.. idk I have a really hard time imagining mafia would do something like that. There were a bunch of other things too I know that part isn't 100% clearing but there were more (like I said about 5 things like that)

I sorta just figured anyone looking at those notes would know they came from town and not from mafia.

The thing with the notes, thingy, it's really really easy to read stuff that you know isn't a deliberate show put on. Notes that only you see aren't a show for anyone.

I actually don't mind you noting this, but suffice to say that once WN came in and essentially lolcatted, WN was 100% going to get lynched yesterday and my vote was always going to be on him at EOD

it was important to note how arcbell would react to pressure when he might think he could actually get lynched

I'd like to note that Moocher mostly spoiled this by explaining why the votes were on me midway through. My reactions after that point should be read in the context of "they may lynch me, but probably know better"

I'm not feeling too confident about this Arc lynch. Let's do Merk instead. He's a wolf a lot.

arc,

let's play a game for a minute

let's say that you get lynched today and flip villager, and then Moocher gets killed overnight and flips villager, and there's an announcement that there are still two wolves left in the game

can you give me a probability on who those two wolves might be (like X = 75% wolf, Y = 35% wolf, etc)?

I was about to say.. I'm going to vote him (merk_sa) until he comes back and explains himself. Like.. it's hard to explain but when he claimed my push on Moocher was soft in the context of a recent and total reread of me.. first I thought he was just exaggerating how much he reread -- then he tells me to reread something. I said I did (I read the thing you quoted) then he says "no not that" then goes away. I'm not sure if this is genuine stupidity or not. Last game he was pretty smart as my team mate.. if he actually wanted the discrepancy resolved I don't see why he wouldn't help it along by explaining.

Either way if it becomes relevant, make sure he knows my vote is staying until he explains it properly, or the town decides by some miracle to lynch Moocher today. I'll be back in 2-3 hours.

Oh ok sure I'll stick around for a few mins to play then.

well I guess you kind of answered it by voting for merk

I'd appreciate input from saber, murph and traz

or well, not sure I would appreciate the input we're likely to receive from the latter of those, but I want it nonetheless

Uhh okay. Weird question. But ok.

Saberwolf13 - 1% wolf
Dbmurph - 1% wolf
Thingyman - 5% wolf

merk_sa - 37% wolf
Dwetzel - 34% wolf
LenC - 34% wolf
Crunkus - 20% wolf
traz - 34% wolf
tappokone - 34% wolf

this what you wanted?

Also, if you try to interpret those as my actual %s, and not the %s given your hypothetical, I'm going to have a big issue with you >.>

Close enough, I suppose.

So you now think merk is a more likely wolf than lenC, or is part of the reason merk is a more likely wolf that you have some associative read between Moocher and lenC that would no longer be valid?

Yes exactly. If you insist moocher is town then LenC has no special reason (fmpov) to be wolf. The skew on merk_sa is for basically what happened today.

Votes from post 9737 to post 9971
Night in 5:39:05
---

Votes	Lynch	Voters
5	Arcbell	Thingyman (13), DWetzel (10), merk_sa (22), saberwolf13 (1), Crunkus (1)
2	tappokone	lenC (40), The Moocher (46)
2	merk_sa	tappokone (45), Arcbell (43)
2	not voting	dbmurph22 (6), traz (0)

Am I free to go now? Is the game ended Dwetz? I'll be back in a couple hours in any case.

I'm going to take that as a yes.... cya in a bit.

Posts from Arc mentioning the word "Moocher", for those who want to judge for themselves: