My goal is to win the Dc at a rate of 1 in every 10 games.

You can stop laughing now.

I already lost the red rating, lol. Every time I win a dc I seem to play as bad as I can for like a week...

I remember making my confused? and making lemonade without even noticing. I just found the awards on my page and wondered about how I got them
But for a 50k+ making lemonade that wouldn't work I guess.

Ask and ye shall receive. Here are the top timed and daily ratings

Timed top 20 (with sigma < 30)

+--------------+----------+-------------+
| login | timed_mu | timed_sigma |
+--------------+----------+-------------+
| TH10 | 1699.27 | 5 |
| radisto | 1677.58 | 7.58528 |
| Derwi | 1667.92 | 8.75874 |
| Gaby | 1659.33 | 10.9309 |
| krohn | 1657.49 | 6.17685 |
| Alex | 1651.78 | 5 |
| Paul101 | 1646.29 | 5 |
| bingobango | 1645 | 7.61486 |
| mrgibson | 1636.8 | 5.88665 |
| TC.Degen | 1634.69 | 13.2769 |
| Dynasty | 1627.91 | 20.0103 |
| Zac | 1625.79 | 5.73506 |
| JelgerW | 1622.76 | 17.7518 |
| arooooba | 1619.94 | 12.6625 |
| ibavly | 1611.16 | 10.4086 |
| Popcorn | 1592.6 | 5.04049 |
| Treep | 1585.95 | 16.1118 |
| aggie1717 | 1581.66 | 7.40844 |
| dogfloss | 1579.82 | 5 |
| ginter | 1578.11 | 17.3224 |
| anton-09 | 1575.11 | 9.19524 |
| fredericksbu | 1573.91 | 10.6225 |
+--------------+----------+-------------+

Daily top 40 with sigma < 20 (lots of people who don't play any more still show up).

+------------+----------+-------------+
| login | daily_mu | daily_sigma |
+------------+----------+-------------+
| Pollyannah | 1700.86 | 14.1731 |
| ExaMeter | 1605.87 | 14.2086 |
| TH10 | 1585.72 | 5.1044 |
| hammertime | 1584.86 | 5.85923 |
| Mikus | 1581.87 | 9.29709 |
| Dynasty | 1575.73 | 5 |
| Paul101 | 1565.99 | 5 |
| Gaby | 1565.41 | 5 |
| ShadowCruz | 1561.1 | 10.2531 |
| krohn | 1560.73 | 5 |
| Luke | 1554.62 | 5.27352 |
| antigrav | 1554.6 | 9.69549 |
| joao | 1553.87 | 9.87708 |
| Derwi | 1552.45 | 5 |
| Boris | 1552.12 | 6.11385 |
| JelgerW | 1549.29 | 7.06143 |
| radisto | 1545.42 | 5 |
| bingobango | 1544.44 | 5.10026 |
| Tetti | 1544.1 | 14.2498 |
| mehike | 1539.97 | 9.21757 |
| Shadowlike | 1538.33 | 5 |
| Wyst | 1537.69 | 5 |
| Zac | 1533.27 | 5 |
| Popcorn | 1529.28 | 5 |
| Duke | 1529.12 | 8.51682 |
| joerich | 1529.03 | 14.5548 |
| mrgibson | 1521.76 | 5 |
| m3psi | 1521.34 | 15.336 |
| Oska | 1520.06 | 11.0667 |
| Alex | 1519.46 | 5 |
| wackyvegan | 1518.13 | 5.23088 |
| kruges | 1515.95 | 5.94839 |
| mraben2 | 1514.12 | 8.2664 |
| chub | 1514.03 | 5.09157 |
| ibavly | 1507.75 | 5 |
| DIonized | 1507.38 | 5.32767 |
| anton-09 | 1506.89 | 5 |
| Treep | 1500.88 | 5.04205 |
| Ramjet | 1500.65 | 9.9526 |
+------------+----------+-------------+

When I said ambitious, keeping the red wasn't one of them, that should be pretty easy for you, even if you lost it now.

I think a lot of people have gotten Confused? ja Making Lemonade by accident, just by playing normal games. I've probably said this before, but that 50k+ Making Lemonade is probably too difficult, just because it needs so many 3s, and there are no manipulations to get more of them (other than getting lucky with re-roll rack), also the other chains have to be perfect, or they will score more than 3s, and obviously bonus has to be really good too.

Thanks. Timed a lot like I expected, I actually thought radisto/Derwi would be a bit closer to me. Gaby's rating/deviation is quite a lot higher than I thought based on the amount of total timed games played, I guess Gaby has played a lot of games with just 2 or 3 players then. Two kind of funny details, bingo has two names in top10, and ibav has a lower rating than his/her 2nd account.

Interesting. The daily numbers prove what I managed find out a few days ago, when a player has higher winrate, the deviation (sigma) takes longer to reach the minimum. Pollyannah's rating is absolutely ridiculous.

I'm pretty sure there was some cheating involved. I removed a couple of Pollyannah's games that were clearly unfair, but I wouldn't be surprised if there a few remaining that aren't as obvious.

OK, I give up. You win TH, it's clearly not even a close competition. Revised targets:

Combined Rating:

Maintain the second-highest combined rating (currently 3061). Derwi is a big threat here atm.
Get my combined rating to within 50 of TH's. Seems like a tall order, but w/e.

Timed:

Get to 2nd in the Timed ranking.
Get to Timed Master.
Maybe reach 1625 Timed rating one day.

Daily Challenge Ranking:

Get to 2nd in the Daily ranking.
Reach 1480 rating.

Daily Challenge Wins:

Maintain the second-highest Daily winrate, and preferably get it above 12.5% (1/8).
One day get to second in the list of Daily wins.

/End of self-pitying moan which no-one cares about. But seriously, TH is ridiculous.

Pretty sure that you will stay ahead of me in combined rating.

JFTR, so I can do the maths later: as of now I have 12 wins from 280 games. I've played all 17 games so far this year, and won twice, so I was 10 wins in 263 games as of end of year.

Your's and Gaby's (and radisto's) combined raw ratings are higher than mine.

Something I've been thinking about for a bit though, would it be possible to increase the minimum Timed sigma? At the moment it's so hard for people close to the minimum to gain rating. For example, even though TH has a 53-point lead over me, I need the equivalent of 13 straight wins to gain one point. Even if I'm winning 50% of games playing heads-up against TH, it will still take around 175 games to gain one point. At the rate we play, that's about 7 hours. If you increase the min. to 7.5 the required wins drops to around 6. Or increasing it to 10 puts the required wins around 4. Putting it to something like 10 would improve the system a lot imo, but if people are around their true rating shouldn't produce huge swings.

The other advantage of increasing the minimum sigma is that the ranking becomes a lot more reflective of the true state. Because it's so hard to get the volume in, most people still have a massive penalty, so people like Gaby and Derwi are much lower than they should be, but I would argue that their true rating is fairly reliable given the many hundreds of games played.

Just a thought.

I like it.

lol my gimmick account has a better rating than my real account

I like what they do in dominion where only games over the past 30 days count towards your rating

clearly you were tanking on your normal account in anticipation of our bet

I'm very confused as to why lots of the top players played the way they did in yesterday's challenge...

Also noticed that I made a rack 9 mistake, but that I wouldn't have gained any places by playing it correctly.

I made a stupid mistake in the 9th rack last challenge... was so stupid as it was the first block of the rack I placed and didn't notice the absurdity until i finished.

Spontaneous decision to play 4s when 2 of them came in the 5th or 6th rack.

70k club! My original 9th rack was 44431 - thank goodness for the reroll!

I'm dying for my first 70,000. wtg zac

Yay congrats zac.

Congrats Zac!

I'll join you in the 70k club soon hopefully!

Speaking of ambitious goals, this is very much one. This could actually be a good yearly goal for a lot of players. Unfortunately not a lot will reach it, as it is going to be very difficult to do, since atm only three players have a lifetime winrate of at least 10 %. And if TC becomes more popular, this will become impossible.

I wonder what is the highest winrate one could realistically expect long term. Of course this depends a lot of how many players are playing the DCs on average, but assuming a player pool that TC currently has. Maybe 1 in 7 could be possible? Hard to imagine anything better than that could be done, well at least by anyone not named Pollyannah. Although it would seem like some luckbox has won 10 out of his last 33 DCs.

Well cheating would certainly explain it, it just seems very unrealistic to me.

I believe you've won way more than 50 % against me in the last 5 or so days, I've been playing so poorly I'm not sure I know what I'm doing anymore. Also, I've come to the sad conclusion that my Timed rating is not going any higher, it is just not realistic. So you should be able to close the gap with that, and you should be Timed Master very soon.

As was already determined, 175 games is wrong, that is to gain exactly two points, 87 to gain one point. Still, that is a lot. Zac actually had another idea with the ratings than to increase minimum deviation. But it is his game and his idea, so if Zac wants to, I'll let him explain it. Maybe someone who is good at math could invent what is needed.

However if that can't be done, I am also for increasing the minimum deviation. I actually already said to Zac this same thing months ago after getting the Timed Invincible for the first time, Zac also asked whether it should be raised itt before that. I don't think it is something that must be done, but I do think it would be a good idea. The big question is how much it should be increased to, imo 10 is probably too high, but I would need to do some research to see what would be a good number. I think also the Daily minimum deviation could be higher, but not necessarily a lot higher. Anyways, it isn't even as important, just mentioning it too.

You aren't that bad! I am though, it was a few weeks ago, when I made a last rack mistake, and it even cost me a few places.

Like I said, I think it was because of concern over 1s, but in the end I would've actually wanted one more 1 in racks 5-8 (bottom right corner of top zone was free until 8th rack). The game went so smoothly, I was actually sure I would lose by that one missing 6 after I saw the last rack, and was shocked to see I was actually leading by almost 4k at that time.

Congrats! 7th member of the club.

Is there a way to disable this? It is kind of annoying. #toomanyabilitypoints

edit. Actually I guess I could choose abilities temporarily (when not playing advanced) so, that all points are used. But if there is an easy way to disable this for one player, it would be nice.

Congrats Zac!

Donk, I was referrring to TH, Alex, Derwi and Gaby who all snaked 4s in Round 6, blocking 6s, against the percentages. Talked to TH and Alex about this since though.

It's quite possible I've won over 50%, but I've gained like 2 points, under the current system there is no way I'll ever get close to you in Timed, and your current run at Daily is absolutely obscene:

Although the variance is huge and it's probably some mad upswing, it's hard to believe it's entirely unrepresentative, and that your rating won't just disappear into the sky in a similar way to your Timed rating.


This sounds interesting, I'd be keen to hear it.

I've been trying to improve in advanced lately, and it really takes a lot of self-discipline to do it right. I seem to be impatient by nature.

question about advanced: I never use my powers until the first set of 4 rolls is finished. Is this good strategy?

I remember T10 saying to not use anything on the first 2, I think. That's my goal. Also to be careful about the 2 4's you get to erase.

I use the 2 point preview now, and it's been very helpful. I'm still getting used to it.