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03-19-2018 , 01:00 PM
Getting to be that time of year again. Who’s ready for the next Battle Royale? Thinking about an approx start date of April 1st
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03-19-2018 , 06:17 PM
If you run it they will come, I'm sure...
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03-19-2018 , 06:25 PM
Strictly speaking I'm most likely to come 2 day after the signup closes.

(IN)
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03-29-2018 , 06:49 PM
Registration for BR4 is now open. Same 4 metrics as usual wins, average score, HU, and lenC points. I may send out invites to everyone I know that plays/used to play. Lmk if you have any questions. Good luck!
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03-30-2018 , 01:50 PM
Random thought...

Is there are tougher opening than 6544X?

We had this in a couple of DCs this year and I think I saw about 12 unique approaches from the field. Every option has drawbacks one way or another. If there was a program that could determine optimal rack 1 placement, I wonder what it would say about 6544X. And, I wonder if the answer for 65442 would be the same as 65441 or 65443. Maybe not?


Kudos to waflles for volunteering his time to run and do stats for....

Battle Royale number.........

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04-01-2018 , 05:25 AM
March 2018 DC Highlights


 DC Points
SubArcticK254
Alex254
velourfog243
Hg80237
Derwi236
nails226
Bandwagon217
Dynasty213
wafflesobv186
dogfloss185


 DC Wins
SubArcticK6
velourfog6
nails4
Bandwagon4
Alex3
Hg803
consul3
Dynasty3
wafflesobv3
Gerad3


-- SubArcticK and Alex tied for the most DC points in March, but SubArc got the first-place nod for his 6 wins versus Alex's 3. It was SubArc's second consecutive monthly win and sixth straight month in the top 10. After a slow start, SubArc caught fire during the second half of the month, getting 5 of his 6 wins in the last two weeks. But he never led until the final day, when he needed a third-place finish to catch Alex.

-- velourfog's 6 wins during the month helped him take third place, with Hg80 and Derwi close behind. With 14 wins through the first three months, velourfog is on pace to eclipse the all-time record for calendar-year DC wins.

-- Unlike the first two months of the year, where the top two scorers were well ahead of the pack, March featured a tightly bunched group at the top. The top 5 were separated by just 18 points and the entire top 10 by 69 points. In contrast, the top 3 were separated by 87 points in February and 107 points in January.

-- Eight of the top 10 in March were also in the top 10 in February, with Hg80 and Bandwagon replacing arjun13 and Kokirixx. Consequently, arjun's 11-month streak in the top 10 ended in March with a 12th-place finish.

-- Four players (SubArc, velourfog, Alex, and Derwi) have finished in the top 10 in each of the first three months of 2018.



YTD DC Stats


 Yearly Race
SubArcticK56
Alex44
velourfog42
arjun1328
Derwi24
Bandwagon21
nails20
Dynasty19
Hg8016
Gerad12


 DC Wins
velourfog14
nails11
Bandwagon11
SubArcticK10
Alex10
wafflesobv9
arjun138
Derwi8
Hg808
Gerad8


 DC Points
velourfog764
SubArcticK747
Alex732
Derwi637
arjun13628
Bandwagon622
nails594
Dynasty574
wafflesobv551
Hg80536


2018 TC DC Stats
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04-01-2018 , 10:41 AM
excellent work as always nails! 6 hours left to register for BR4! register while you still can
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04-02-2018 , 09:52 AM
Riding high in February, shot down in march.
Triplechain Quote
04-05-2018 , 03:01 PM
BRIV is now live! Follow along at BRIV Stat Sheet
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04-05-2018 , 08:08 PM
In case anyone is interested, the following table (from the Tournament Summary tab on TC) shows who won overall, who won each of the metrics, and who got purple trophies in the first 3 Battle Royales.


Triplechain Quote
04-11-2018 , 08:03 PM
Stats for BRIV updated through game 19. Dogfloss and Bandwagon are off to an early lead. will provide a more through update in the coming days. If anyone notices any errors let me know

Last edited by warped; 04-11-2018 at 08:11 PM.
Triplechain Quote
04-18-2018 , 08:52 PM


Through 25 games it was quite tight up top with Bandwagon, velourfog, dogfloss, Subarctick and arjun all trying to make their claim as the top contender with Bandwagon taking the lead with 8(!) wins in the first 25 games. Is consistancy enough or do you need to go on a run to win? We'll soon find out
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04-18-2018 , 08:53 PM


We're still not quite through game 50 but here's a preview of the next 25 games...More updates to come
Triplechain Quote
04-24-2018 , 12:39 PM


I had this situation the other day. Rack 7 was 66442 so the only question was how to handle the 4 and 2. Rather than do the math on it I just convinced myself that a 2 in the lower right spot in the north zone gives me two shots at connecting the 2 whereas a 2 in the upper left spot in the east zone only gives me one chance (rack 8).

If I went north with the 2 I knew that if I connect with a 2 in rack 8 that I can't handle another 2 in rack 9, but I just hate putting a 2 in a zone with paired 2s in rack 7. My head told me it was probably a bad play, but after I included my tainted outs, air miles and fold equity, it is probably a coinflip...right??? lol. So, I went north with the 2.

Anyway, what is your play here in rack 7? 2 North or 2 East?

Spolier has the correct play (I think..)


Spoiler:
I am not good at combinatorics so I just messed around with two situations. One with zero or one 2s in rack 8 and/or 9 and one with 2 or more 2s in rack 8 and/or 9.

84% of the time a 2 east beats a 2 north approximately 76% to 64%.

The other 16% of the time a 2 east beats a 2 north approximately 60% to 40%.

So, 2 east is clearly the better play, and not by an insignificant margin. But, everyone except me probably already knew that....


Last edited by ArcticKnight; 04-24-2018 at 12:48 PM.
Triplechain Quote
04-24-2018 , 01:53 PM
I would play the 2 in the top without much thought, i think.
Spoiler:
but...
My rough rule of thumb is that in a given round the probabilities of any given number are:
0 - 40%
1 - 40%
2 - (or more) 20%
So there are 9 cases - 0,1,2 in R8 x 0,1,2 in R9, and you can work out the probabilities of each.

I reckon the 'contrarian' choice of putting the 2 on the side is better when there is one 2 in R8 and either 1 or 2 of them in R9 - 16% + 8% of the time. And putting the 2 to the top is better if there isn't a 2 in R8 but there is one in R9 - 16% of the time. So My choice would be better 16% of the time and worse 24% of the time.*

* Obviously you might want to calculate the EV of the move, and the average scores might drive a different outcome, but TBH i think working out how often you're right might be better than whether the average outcome is higher or lower.
Triplechain Quote
04-24-2018 , 02:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kokiri
I would play the 2 in the top without much thought, i think.
Spoiler:
but...
My rough rule of thumb is that in a given round the probabilities of any given number are:
0 - 40%
1 - 40%
2 - (or more) 20%
So there are 9 cases - 0,1,2 in R8 x 0,1,2 in R9, and you can work out the probabilities of each.

I reckon the 'contrarian' choice of putting the 2 on the side is better when there is one 2 in R8 and either 1 or 2 of them in R9 - 16% + 8% of the time. And putting the 2 to the top is better if there isn't a 2 in R8 but there is one in R9 - 16% of the time. So My choice would be better 16% of the time and worse 24% of the time.*

* Obviously you might want to calculate the EV of the move, and the average scores might drive a different outcome, but TBH i think working out how often you're right might be better than whether the average outcome is higher or lower.
Not surprisingly, I think I made an error. But, even once that is corrected, I still get the same move as the better play, but by a slimmer margin

Spoiler:
Originally I had the following for a 2 in any rack:

40% (no 2)
60% (exactly one 2)
16% (two or more 2s)

That was flawed due to the overlap, and I think it should have been closer to

40% (no 2)
~45% (exactly one 2)
~15% (two or more 2s)

Under the new percentages I get the following:

85% of the time east beats north 54% to 52%
Situation 1: a 2 in rack 8, and a 2 in rack 9 (20%)
Situation 2: a 2 in rack 8, and no 2 in rack 9 (18%)
Situation 3: no 2 in rack 8, and a 2 in rack 9 (18%)
Situation 4: no 2 in rack 8 or 9 (16%).

So, if the 2 goes in the east zone then situations 1,2 and 4 are good (54%)
If the 2 goes in the North zone, Situations 2, 3 and 4 are good (52%)


15% of the time east beats north 60% to 40%

But, at this point I am feeling in over my head... But, yes Kokiri, I was not thinking about average score or anything like that. I was just thinking about the play that maxed 2s for the bonus (and killed them the least) most often

Last edited by ArcticKnight; 04-24-2018 at 03:13 PM.
Triplechain Quote
04-24-2018 , 03:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArcticKnight
Not surprisingly, I think I made an error. But, even once that is corrected, I still get the same move as the better play, but by a slimmer margin

Spoiler:
Originally I had the following for a 2 in any rack:

40% (no 2)
60% (exactly one 2)
16% (two or more 2s)

That was flawed due to the overlap, and I think it should have been closer to

40% (no 2)
~45% (exactly one 2)
~15% (two or more 2s)

Under the new percentages I get the following:

85% of the time east beats north 54% to 52%
Situation 1: a 2 in rack 8, and a 2 in rack 9 (20%)
Situation 2: a 2 in rack 8, and no 2 in rack 9 (18%)
Situation 3: no 2 in rack 8, and a 2 in rack 9 (18%)
Situation 4: no 2 in rack 8 or 9 (16%).

So, if the 2 goes in the east zone then situations 1,2 and 4 are good (54%)
If the 2 goes in the North zone, Situations 2, 3 and 4 are good (52%)


15% of the time east beats north 60% to 40%

But, at this point I am feeling in over my head... But, yes Kokiri, I was not thinking about average score or anything like that. I was just thinking about the play that maxed 2s for the bonus (and killed them the least) most often
and

correction again (or not) it sucks to be old....lol


Spoiler:
85% of the time east beats north 54% to 52%
Situation 1: a 2 in rack 8, and a 2 in rack 9 (20%)
Situation 2: a 2 in rack 8, and no 2 in rack 9 (18%)
Situation 3: no 2 in rack 8, and a 2 in rack 9 (18%)
Situation 4: no 2 in rack 8 or 9 (16%).

should be (i think)

85% of the time east beats north 75% to 72%
Situation 1: a 2 in rack 8, and a 2 in rack 9 (28%)
Situation 2: a 2 in rack 8, and no 2 in rack 9 (25%)
Situation 3: no 2 in rack 8, and a 2 in rack 9 (25%)
Situation 4: no 2 in rack 8 or 9 (22%).
Triplechain Quote
04-24-2018 , 06:13 PM
Please stop using spoiler tags.
Triplechain Quote
04-24-2018 , 11:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dynasty
Please stop using spoiler tags.
I have heard that yoga or an occasional massage can be helpful. Weed is also a good option.
Triplechain Quote
05-01-2018 , 04:08 AM
April 2018 DC Highlights


 DC Points
arjun13326
Bandwagon270
SubArcticK269
Dynasty207
wafflesobv207
consul192
velourfog192
Derwi190
dogfloss188
nails179


 DC Wins
Bandwagon6
arjun135
consul4
SubArcticK3
Dynasty3
dogfloss3


-- After seeing an 11-month top-10 streak end in March, arjun13 reasserted himself with a comfortable first-place finish in April. arjun dominated from the beginning, posting the fifth-highest monthly score on record thanks to 5 wins and 14 other top-five finishes.

-- Bandwagon and SubArcticK were neck-and-neck for second place, with Bandwagon edging out SubArc by a single point. Bandwagon's six wins were the most in April, but SubArc stayed close with 15 top-five finishes. Bandwagon won on three consecutive days (April 20-22), while SubArc currently has the longest active monthly streak in the top 10 (seven), which started after he had a 13-month streak snapped in September 2017.

-- The rest of the top 10 were tightly bunched, separated by just 28 points. dogfloss snuck into the top 10 with a win on the final day of the month, while nails edged out anton-09 by just two points for the last spot in the top 10.

-- Three players (SubArc, velourfog, and Derwi) have finished in the top 10 in every month so far in 2018.



Year-To-Date DC Stats


 Yearly Race
SubArcticK71
arjun1353
velourfog50
Alex44
Bandwagon39
Dynasty31
Derwi28
wafflesobv22
nails21
Hg8016


 DC Wins
Bandwagon17
velourfog16
SubArcticK13
arjun1313
nails12
Alex11
consul11
wafflesobv11
Derwi10
Hg8010


 DC Points
SubArcticK1,016
velourfog956
arjun13954
Bandwagon892
Alex871
Derwi827
Dynasty781
nails773
wafflesobv758
Hg80700


2018 TC DC Stats
Triplechain Quote
05-01-2018 , 09:40 AM
Paul quit playing TC?
Triplechain Quote
05-01-2018 , 10:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gabethebabe
Paul quit playing TC?
Yeah, he couldn't handle not being number 1 anymore
Triplechain Quote
05-01-2018 , 10:38 AM
wat, somebody was better than him?
velourfog is 3rd in the DC? I remember him being mediocre?
The 62.5k of biggerboat normal score is no longer counted?
Triplechain Quote
05-01-2018 , 01:49 PM
It’s a whole new world out there gabe. Wait til you see what’s happened to WW.
Triplechain Quote
05-01-2018 , 01:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gabethebabe
wat, somebody was better than him?
I would say arjun had a slight edge before Paul stopped playing, but Paul has three majors to arjun's 0.That is probably variance though. But, if arjun doesn't win a major soon then we will have to call him Sergio.....no wait....Monty, I guess...lol

They are pretty close, but I think arjun gets fewer poor results than Paul. Arjun can get max value out of a mess.

Anyway, maybe Paul will come back at some point.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gabethebabe
velourfog is 3rd in the DC? I remember him being mediocre?
Well, time to come back and kick some butt then, Gabe....

Actually, velour has been playing very well for at least a half a year. Was purple for a bit. Maybe he made some changes to his game?. Velour handles 1s and 2s very well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gabethebabe
The 62.5k of biggerboat normal score is no longer counted?
I always thought radisto had it.... 62.5 must have before my time.
Triplechain Quote

      
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