Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul101
How are my odds so low in either game?
In the 31-1-2013 game you needed a last rack with 5 and 4, without 11, nor 22. And you would actually also lose with 5433x, where x is other than 2, which I hadn't previously considered, so odds are 24.69 %.
Racks you win with:
5 4 1 2 3
5 4 1 2 4
5 4 1 2 5
5 4 1 2 6
5 4 1 3 3
5 4 1 3 4
5 4 1 3 5
5 4 1 3 6
5 4 1 4 4
5 4 1 4 5
5 4 1 4 6
5 4 1 5 5
5 4 1 5 6
5 4 1 6 6
5 4 2 3 3
5 4 2 3 4
5 4 2 3 5
5 4 2 3 6
5 4 2 4 4
5 4 2 4 5
5 4 2 4 6
5 4 2 5 5
5 4 2 5 6
5 4 2 6 6
5 4 3 3 4
5 4 3 4 4
5 4 3 4 5
5 4 3 4 6
5 4 3 5 5
5 4 3 5 6
5 4 3 6 6
5 4 4 4 4
5 4 4 4 5
5 4 4 4 6
5 4 4 5 5
5 4 4 5 6
5 4 4 6 6
5 4 5 5 5
5 4 5 5 6
5 4 5 6 6
5 4 6 6 6
Yesterday is a lot more complicated. You win, as you mentioned, with 221 racks. Otherwise you would need that 4, but not all racks with a 4 are good enough. There can't be 11, nor 22. However, if there is a 6, there has to also be a bonus die, otherwise Treep will win. And without any bonus dice, nor 6s, you will still lose, if there is a 3, and no 5. Same applies to situations with one 1 and/or one 2 without 6s, you will lose if there is a 3 and no 5. And if the bonus die is a 1, you would lose even if there is a 5 with the 3. With bonus dice and at least one 6, you would always need the 5, since Gaby already has a 3rd chain of 12 going into last rack. So all of this leaves you with 21.30 %, not 28.50 % like I mentioned before, I had been careless when removing the racks in the calculator, oops. (Side note: My odds were too high as well, since I had missed that 135 situation earlier, so should've been 31.84 %)
Racks:
4 1 2 4 4
4 1 2 4 5
4 1 2 5 5
4 1 4 4 4
4 1 4 4 5
4 1 4 5 5
4 1 4 5 6
4 1 5 5 5
4 1 5 5 6
4 1 5 6 6
4 2 3 4 5
4 2 3 5 5
4 2 3 5 6
4 2 4 4 4
4 2 4 4 5
4 2 4 5 5
4 2 4 5 6
4 2 5 5 5
4 3 3 3 5
4 3 3 4 5
4 3 3 5 5
4 3 4 4 5
4 3 4 5 5
4 3 5 5 5
4 4 4 4 4
4 4 4 4 5
4 4 4 5 5
4 4 5 5 5
4 5 5 5 5
2 2 1 1 1
2 2 1 1 2
2 2 1 1 3
2 2 1 1 4
2 2 1 1 5
2 2 1 1 6
2 2 1 2 2
2 2 1 2 3
2 2 1 2 4
2 2 1 2 5
2 2 1 2 6
2 2 1 3 3
2 2 1 3 4
2 2 1 3 5
2 2 1 3 6
2 2 1 4 4
2 2 1 4 5
2 2 1 4 6
2 2 1 5 5
2 2 1 5 6
2 2 1 6 6
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul101
Also, these smaller percentages add up. For example, I had 27% on the 4th Feb.
Yes, but even 0.25 + 0.27 + 0.21 < 1.